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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | Theaters and Disney+ premium same day

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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

You think wrong :Venom:   
 

(Is DC even an important market?)

Yes.  At least one of the AMCs and Regals in DC consistently gross in the top 10-15 in the country.  And a Cinemark theatre just north in Towson, the Baltimore county area, essentially a "college town," is actually in the top 5% of Cinemarks in the country.  

Edited by Macleod
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16 minutes ago, Macleod said:

Yes.  At least one of the AMCs and Regals in DC consistently gross in the top 10-15 in the country.  And a Cinemark theatre just north in Towson, the Baltimore county area, essentially a "college town," is actually in the top 5% of Cinemarks in the country.  

Well I didn’t think it was a tiny market or anything, I was just surprised to see it in the same breath as NY/LA. And based on this data my estimation of its importance is unchanged and I am exactly as surprised.

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I’ll hedge my bet on this one. There are approximately 50% cinemas open now. The big markets will be open by May, since the vaccinations are going very well. However, social distancing (maybe 50% max capacity) will still be in place. So I see this opening at about 40 million. I will give it a 3 multiplier for about 120 million domestic and mostly because of China, I think this will do 500 or 600 million WW. 

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8 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, but 50% of 300M would be better than either.

You really think theaters in West are in any position to ask any such terms?

 

They are soon going to content with15-20% considering Disney is repeatedly saying their approach will be DTC first. Disney had crazy 2019, what did they got? $4.7B in Theatrical & $6.3B in non-theatrical revenue. Netflix is getting $20B, while consumer spending was probably more/par for Disney products. Theaters are just a middle-man, which just may not be required in West. 

 

Only leverage theaters have is the business in Asia. Studios will have to make choice between that and OTT revenue in West.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Netflix is getting $20B, while consumer spending was probably more/par for Disney products.

Netflix is also heavily spending on TV though. I've always felt like this comparison between theatrical revenue to Netflix's revenue is an apples to oranges comparison that doesn't offer much meaningfully. And I doubt that Disney's ecosystem would work as well without theaters. 

 

Anyways, regardless of whatever Disney does, I still think it's a pretty shitty move to force theaters to get a tiny part of the gross.

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13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I still think it's a pretty shitty move to force theaters to get a tiny part of the gross.

Nope. Theaters was a necessity for a long period of time, they are no longer now. No point in keep paying the middleman. We advocate cutting the middle-man in every field, how is movie industry any different.

 

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 I've always felt like this comparison between theatrical revenue to Netflix's revenue is an apples to oranges comparison that doesn't offer much meaningfully. And I doubt that Disney's ecosystem would work as well without theaters.

yeah comp between theatrical gross with Netflix revenue can be said bad comparison, because theaters are getting 50% plus of that theatrical gross. netflix revenue can be compared with theatrical share which studios get and its awful that despite consumer pay $30B for the product of studios, they only get $12B of that. A scenario where consumer pay $20B and studio get $20B is win win scenario.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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If Disney considers theatrical a valuable part of IP building but doesn't want to share profits, should have just snapped up an exhibition chain while they were cheap ;) 

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37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope. Theaters was a necessity for a long period of time, they are no longer now. No point in keep paying the middleman. We advocate cutting the middle-man in every field, how is movie industry any different.

 

 

Lol, who cares if Disney doesn't make a couple billions lol? 

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yeah comp between theatrical gross with Netflix revenue can be said bad comparison, because theaters are getting 50% plus of that theatrical gross. netflix revenue can be compared with theatrical share which studios get and its awful that despite consumer pay $30B for the product of studios, they only get $12B of that. A scenario where consumer pay $20B and studio get $20B is win win scenario.

This isn't what I was talking about at all lmao. Read my comment properly before going off on a tangent.

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6 hours ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I’ll hedge my bet on this one. There are approximately 50% cinemas open now. The big markets will be open by May, since the vaccinations are going very well. However, social distancing (maybe 50% max capacity) will still be in place. So I see this opening at about 40 million. I will give it a 3 multiplier for about 120 million domestic and mostly because of China, I think this will do 500 or 600 million WW. 

This is absolutely the best case scenario at this point IMO. I would have to think Disney would be extremely happy with 80MM domestic / 400MM WW, let alone 120MM domestic / 500 or 600MM WW.

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In the US there is a law against studios ownimg cinemas (excluding a few exceptioms)

 

At least there was ome in the past, maybe it run out?

 

To get new customers, young,... I feel like the experience in a theater/cinema makes it often more impacting, more focused in especial for young viewers, to develop their first fandoms... (and 20/30y later nostalgia.... too).

So to let the cinemas die (and a big part in especial non big-city regions would with those kind of business) seems a bit short sighted.

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22 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

In the US there is a law against studios ownimg cinemas (excluding a few exceptioms)

 

At least there was ome in the past, maybe it run out?

That law got overturned last year it was called the Paramount decrees. 
 

If you want to read up on it: https://www.vulture.com/2020/08/judge-reverses-decades-old-paramount-consent-degrees.html

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1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

That law got overturned last year it was called the Paramount decrees. 
 

If you want to read up on it: https://www.vulture.com/2020/08/judge-reverses-decades-old-paramount-consent-degrees.html

THX, I had an inkling that it might have been so, maybe I read it, maybe I felt its a probable thing for Trump, or...?

 

I do not follow (do not agree) her reasoning, but am not surprised at all to see it getting it put to court to get to put down by Trump‘s ‚people‘.

 

Maybe the studios even want some of the cinemas - who are actually struggle - to buy 

Eg to have own cinemas in the parks/lands/... of not only Disney will not be enough for reaching not-fans

 

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Here in Texas, we are supposedly going to hit herd immunity sometime around June or July, but I will tell you that people are chomping at the bit to get out and get back to normal.  The mask mandate on the state level is lifted as of today, as are capacity rules (though businesses can do their own thing).  By May, I suspect that, herd immunity or not, there will be enough people vaccinated who are in the target audience for this that it will do pretty well in theaters.  I haven't been to the theater in over a year, but I am vaccinated now and would definitely go see this in the theater.  I'm all for masking, distancing, etc., but I do believe by May 7, there is going to be a lot of vaccinated people who are ready to be back at the movies.  I hope so, anyway!

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Speaking of which, Chapek mentioned nothing about Raya‘s financial success on the Disney+ PVOD side, whereby subscribers had to fork over an additional $30 to watch the animation title. The other whisper that’s been going around is that Disney would make Black Widow available during a truncated theatrical window, followed by a drop on Disney+. This past weekend, Raya had to share the Disney+ menu with Marvel’s series finale for WandaVision, which was available to subscribers for free.

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The lack of whisper about Raya's D+ performance and the insta-confirm of Black Widow theatrical tells you all you need to know about how Raya did financially with its release on both theatrical and PVOD D+...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

The lack of whisper about Raya's D+ performance and the insta-confirm of Black Widow theatrical tells you all you need to know about how Raya did financially with its release on both theatrical and PVOD D+...

I mean people said the same about Mulan when Soul went on there without Premiere Access.

 

 

Feige on theatrical distribution:

It’s widely said you are among the most vigilant in Hollywood about preserving theatrical releases, as opposed to letting Marvel films go to Disney Plus.
It’s impossible [not to be, when you] go to opening night to 23 movies, in packed movie houses, and seeing the moviegoers’ reaction. That’s what drives us creatively as we make all of these, certainly culminating in “Avengers: Endgame” and “Far From Home.” There’s nothing better than that, and we don’t want to lose it. I’m hoping we don’t have to. If there is nowhere else to put those movies, that’s another conversation, but I’m encouraged by the theaters holding on. Also, what’s happening overseas in countries where [the pandemic] is more under control. Guess what? It’s human nature to want to get together an have an experience. That’s continuing in very big ways in countries where they are able.

 

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/kevin-feige-anthony-mackie-faclon-winter-solider-cap-shield-1234924410/

 

 

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32 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I mean people said the same about Mulan when Soul went on there without Premiere Access.

 

 

Feige on theatrical distribution:

It’s widely said you are among the most vigilant in Hollywood about preserving theatrical releases, as opposed to letting Marvel films go to Disney Plus.
It’s impossible [not to be, when you] go to opening night to 23 movies, in packed movie houses, and seeing the moviegoers’ reaction. That’s what drives us creatively as we make all of these, certainly culminating in “Avengers: Endgame” and “Far From Home.” There’s nothing better than that, and we don’t want to lose it. I’m hoping we don’t have to. If there is nowhere else to put those movies, that’s another conversation, but I’m encouraged by the theaters holding on. Also, what’s happening overseas in countries where [the pandemic] is more under control. Guess what? It’s human nature to want to get together an have an experience. That’s continuing in very big ways in countries where they are able.

 

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/kevin-feige-anthony-mackie-faclon-winter-solider-cap-shield-1234924410/

 

 

And Mulan wasn't very good:).  And Raya was probably worse:).  When the experiment goes backward instead of forward, you give it up fast.

 

Black Widow's release, if full theatrical, will still be underwhelming, but they must have seen numbers they probably didn't imagine this weekend...

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I am one of those who really want to see Black Widow as fast as possible.

But as i often watch genre movies alone or with my adult son, not even in pre-virus times I’d pay for someone else (eg in the case someone else wants to accompany us its self-payers, and also usually only after a movie is out for a time... )

= I wont pay more for an access on a monitor, silver screen, ipad, or laptop than I‘ll have to pay for 2 adults in a cinema. 
I also wont pay the equivalent of eg 3D... means here at a reasonable time during the first week of release I pay 8.5-9€ per adult ticket for eg an MCU movie, 2 tickets 17-18€ = that is the max I‘d pay for premier access, still feeling like its a bit too much considering its not a buy nor a cinema experience. 

If it would be a high price with a considerable part going into a cinema supporting pot during their lockdowns, with being made clear the high price will not be the new normal, that would be something else, then I‘d pay gladly a price that high. Then it would be a justifiably reason, something ‘there’.

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