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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | Theaters and Disney+ premium same day

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Allow me to just quote William Hurt, who plays a detective in one of my favorite movies, "Dark City" --

 

"Nobody ever listens to me..."

 

...Which is also something that I think would quite easily come out of General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross's mouth!!  😂

Edited by Macleod
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1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

If they are moving it to July 9th, then why not a straight theatrical release with a window? Theaters will have opened by then and capacity restrictions likely loosened.  

Maybe for US but not every country has the same vaccination speed.

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Jokes apart, If Disney truly moves to DTC first model, will be nice test to the notion that

a) Did Hollywood box office grew or was it just MCU/Disney getting bigger in last 10 years.

b) Is box office really zero sum game.

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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35 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

While I do think this is a strange decision given the improving state of things worldwide with the vaccine rollout, I do think it’ll easily be the best performing Premier Access title by a massive margin and I would assume that Disney is banking on that. I know personally I won’t be venturing back to cinemas until I’m fully vaccinated in October-ish, so I’ll definitely be paying the £19.99 PA asking price for this.

 

It’s going to be interesting to see how Cinemark and the other chains who refused to play Raya react to this. Surely they’d rather have it than not.

I think they skip it - and this explains Peter Rabbit to July 2 - Cinemark may be making that the "kid" movie of the summer for all their group camp/swim team/kid party bookings.

 

Book it - Peter Rabbit 2 wins the DOM summer:)...

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13 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

they are clearly going to make more money doing hybrid release than not. For a forum focused on money, it seems odd that people would question it from a Financial standpoint. 

Because there are way too many factors to gauge that. It seems like you're just assuming that this will just mean more people will pay to watch the movie but there's nothing to indicate that that's quite true. We don't even have any numbers from Disney+ to gauge how well any of these PA movies did. 

 

Quote

Yes the atmosphere of a mega theatrical success is important, but that is very clearly and obviously not going to happen at any point this year. (Which it seems very few people here understand)

If you've actually been looking at the trends within the boxoffice atm, you would know that this isn't true at all. Everything's pointing to things getting back to normal in the summer. Black Widow wouldn't have had much trouble opening close to its original opening weekend in July. 

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think they skip it - and this explains Peter Rabbit to July 2 - Cinemark may be making that the "kid" movie of the summer for all their group camp/swim team/kid party bookings.

 

Book it - Peter Rabbit 2 wins the DOM summer:)...

I actually think PR2 will move back up to May 14 now that BW has vacated.

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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Jokes apart, If Disney truly moves to DTC first model, will be nice test to the notion that

a) Did Hollywood box office grew or was it just MCU/Disney getting bigger in last 10 years.

b) Is box office really zero sum game.

 

I am convinced that BO is a zero sum game in the western countries and even some Asian markets. As for your first point, I didn’t believe it at first, but I’m beginning to come around on it. 

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24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At this point I think they should increase the price or introduce a premium tier of $15 a month instead of charging $30 a film. $30 a film is simply a bad marketing pitch.

I agree - I just told the spouse we're skipping Black Widow til it's free on our D+.  I'm not paying $30 for a rental, and yet, I'm betting my Cinemarks skip (and with my Regals not open and not certain to play it, either, I'm not gonna bother trying to get to the ONE theater within 30 minutes of me that will play it, since I think AMC says yes to ANYTHING at this point)...

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Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

I am convinced that BO is a zero sum game in the western countries and even some Asian markets. As for your first point, I didn’t believe it at first, but I’m beginning to come around on it. 

If you agree to second, how can you not agree to first. 🤔

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

I agree - I just told the spouse we're skipping Black Widow til it's free on our D+.  I'm not paying $30 for a rental, and yet, I'm betting my Cinemarks skip (and with my Regals not open and not certain to play it, either, I'm not gonna bother trying to get to the ONE theater within 30 minutes of me that will play it, since I think AMC says yes to ANYTHING at this point)...

Agreed.  While I predicted this simultaneous streaming debut and am not surprised by it, that doesn't mean I will donate to it!  😂   Black Widow can wait for me, until either A ) I'm comfortable going back to a theater or B ) it emerges "free" on Disney+  (and I don't even have Disney+ right now).   

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Lion Roar said:

I actually think PR2 will move back up to May 14 now that BW has vacated.

It may move up a few weeks, but I don't think May 14...it's OBVIOUSLY positioning itself as the next Croods 2/Tom and Jerry, but looking to get ALL the summer group money, and schools are going later this year.  Florida is going to the 1st week of June, and they never go that long.

 

I'm betting, IF it moves, it moves up into Luca's former spot or the week before, to be the mid-June movie to grab all of summer...although it could also just stay as the "100% open - it's Independence Day, let's celebrate" date...

 

Now, Venom might pop back up out of September, b/c with no "real" Black Widow release or Shang Chi, the supers summer is WIDE open...and supers also do spectacularly in summer...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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I will watch in OW if it's playing in my Cinemark or any of the local chain theaters. Otherwise I might just wait for it to come free. Being a prequel spoilers are not such a huge concern here anyway. 

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think they skip it - and this explains Peter Rabbit to July 2 - Cinemark may be making that the "kid" movie of the summer for all their group camp/swim team/kid party bookings.

 

Book it - Peter Rabbit 2 wins the DOM summer:)...

Eh, even if BW is really hurt by the PA, I find it hard to see it losing that one. And even if BW really bombs, I think F9 will make a lot more than Peter Rabbit. 

Edited by Menor
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5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I agree - I just told the spouse we're skipping Black Widow til it's free on our D+.  I'm not paying $30 for a rental, and yet, I'm betting my Cinemarks skip (and with my Regals not open and not certain to play it, either, I'm not gonna bother trying to get to the ONE theater within 30 minutes of me that will play it, since I think AMC says yes to ANYTHING at this point)...

Regal won't play it for sure. If there's no exclusive theatrical window, they won't play it. 

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Because there are way too many factors to gauge that. It seems like you're just assuming that this will just mean more people will pay to watch the movie but there's nothing to indicate that that's quite true. We don't even have any numbers from Disney+ to gauge how well any of these PA movies did. 

 

If you've actually been looking at the trends within the boxoffice atm, you would know that this isn't true at all. Everything's pointing to things getting back to normal in the summer. Black Widow wouldn't have had much trouble opening close to its original opening weekend in July. 

1, yes I’m making assumptions. Everyone is making assumptions. Nobody here has any clue of what they’re talking about when it comes to the finances of releasing a movie in a pandemic. I stand by what I said. 

 

For your second point, that’s great. I’m sure the rest of the planet is vaccinating just as much as the US right? Oh wait. No they’re not. And they will still make money from theatrical even then, so I still do not see what the issue is. And Godzilla vs Kong making 35m 3 day against quite literally 0 competition, is not going to quell my doubt. In fact it just makes me think Disney made a good move pushing back 2 months to let the feeling that a lot of people have gotten the vaccine, and thus feel safer, pervade even more. 
 

what I think the actual issue is, is that many people have an over romanticized view of what going to the theaters is like since it’s been so long, and that if Disney is able to make the finances work (which in my opinion they clearly are on the way to doing), theaters will continue to lose their place in society. 
 

no it won’t be today and it won’t be tomorrow, and it won’t even by in the next couple of year, but they will eventually make far more money from streaming than they ever could have hoped from theatrical. 
 

and it is not that I wish to see theaters fall. Some movies feel better when seen with many people, but most movies are not like that. 

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8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Because there are way too many factors to gauge that. It seems like you're just assuming that this will just mean more people will pay to watch the movie but there's nothing to indicate that that's quite true. We don't even have any numbers from Disney+ to gauge how well any of these PA movies did. 

 

No, we don't.

 

But guess who does?

 

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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If you agree to second, how can you not agree to first. 🤔

I agree with it in western countries, some markets are growing and have yet to see if it was solely for Disney/Marvel. There have been successes like Aquaman.Jumanji or even something like Dangal in China that make me not so certain 

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I will watch in OW if it's playing in my Cinemark or any of the local chain theaters. Otherwise I might just wait for it to come free. Being a prequel spoilers are not such a huge concern here anyway. 

Eh, even if BW is really hurt by the PA, I find it hard to see it losing that one. And even if BW really bombs, I think F9 will make a lot more than Peter Rabbit. 

 

I did forget about F9...but then again, kid movies have been the winners of the Covid era, and Disney just moved its "obviously would have won the summer" kid movie, Luca, to a free movie...and then took its supers movies (the other normal winners) and kicked one out of summer and the other to day and date, which did NOT work well for Raya...and we'll see what theaters do with Black Widow...if you get the same negative PR surrounding the release and the same lack of theaters playing it, you may get the same crappy result:)...

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4 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Regal won't play it for sure. If there's no exclusive theatrical window, they won't play it. 

Regal/Cineworld are playing WB films day and date with the HBO Max releases for the rest of 2021, so I wouldn’t rule them out.

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Just now, SnokesLegs said:

Regal/Cineworld are playing WB films day and date with the HBO Max releases for the rest of 2021, so I wouldn’t rule them out.

 

I would if Disney still isn't ready to REALLY deal...

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4 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Regal/Cineworld are playing WB films day and date with the HBO Max releases for the rest of 2021, so I wouldn’t rule them out.

No window, no deal. They aren't going to roll over for this. 

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