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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | Theaters and Disney+ premium same day

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If they package both, I'm betting Cinemark will pass on both...Cruella isn't gonna make money, even in a mostly empty May...if I'm a theater, I'm giving A Quiet Place 2 all the theaters for Memorial Day weekend...and then leaning on my WB relationship and giving the rest to the Conjuring the next weekend...

 

Touting it all as "beat the heat with some chills to start the summer"...

 

Yes, AMC/Regal/Cinemark, thank me later for the obviously summer kick off tagline with what we have coming in the summer kick-off:)...Spiral, then A Quiet Place 2, and then the Conjuring...those, I'd package to theater goers as a 3 part deal (maybe free popcorn if you see all 3:)...

The bigger question is will a chain bet on Top Gun and Space Jam for July and leave Black Widow out. If the feel comfortable doing that then Disney are going to have a hard time at the negotiating table.

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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Disney pivoting completely to streaming won't cause theaters to collapse though. And Disney becoming Netflix 2.0 just due to theaters playing hardball is extremely unlikely too. Disney's ecosystem needs theaters. 

Lol it absolutely does not. AMC is already guaranteed to file bankruptcy. It's just a question of how soon. Honestly the management is so stupid it's probably better for them to just shut down and someone buy their best theaters for cheap.

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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, they have spent the last year figuring out some value.  The PvPs are one value source - good for old movie viewing, parties, or even club meetings (where folks may or may not even watch a movie).  The "one night viewing" events done for a few of the fighting sports are another.

 

They have now given themselves some flexibility for their space and some way to make money on the wasted part of it.

 

That's not nothing in 2021.  It's not something I'd start a new business with, but it is something I'd do to keep legacy business going and see where it takes me...

Theaters without films are worth about 10% of the pre covid value. Maybe 20% if you maximize it. If both sides can push their egos aside and theaters can leverage other live streaming events and more private events maybe it will work out for everyone.

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I hope this makes $100m+ in theaters if only for the symbolism. 
 

We could begin to see a real tug of war and corporate infighting between streaming and theatrical divisions in the major studios. 

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2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Sure, agree with that. But they will play the movie making less money than they’d like.

 

Like I said at the top of this page, don’t really see how. Seems like wishful thinking.


I do agree that not working out a deal would be a mutual loss, which is why I fully expect a deal will work beworked out. 

Agreed. I think Disney knew with Raya best case scenario box office is doubled and still sucks. 

 

Black Widow both sides have an opportunity.

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18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If they package both, I'm betting Cinemark will pass on both...Cruella isn't gonna make money, even in a mostly empty May...if I'm a theater, I'm giving A Quiet Place 2 all the theaters for Memorial Day weekend...and then leaning on my WB relationship and giving the rest to the Conjuring the next weekend...

 

Touting it all as "beat the heat with some chills to start the summer"...

 

Yes, AMC/Regal/Cinemark, thank me later for the obviously summer kick off tagline with what we have coming in the summer kick-off:)...Spiral, then A Quiet Place 2, and then the Conjuring...those, I'd package to theater goers as a 3 part deal (maybe free popcorn if you see all 3:)...

 

 

That leans too heavily on horror. I don't think a genre which tends to be kinda polarizing with audiences is the best choice to rely on completely.

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If they work something out for Cruella (and I certainly imagine they will, having concessions again in most places will only aid that) then we can assume BW is on track as well. If they don’t work something out for Cruella... well, they probably still will for BW. Much bigger movie with 6 extra weeks to hash things out.

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15 minutes ago, Menor said:

That leans too heavily on horror. I don't think a genre which tends to be kinda polarizing with audiences is the best choice to rely on completely.

But Cruella seems to fall into the same boat anyway...I mean, I'm not sure what Disney is trying to sell it as seeing the trailer, but it's not family-friendly, either, so it doesn't help the month's variety anyway...

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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

But Cruella seems to fall into the same boat anyway...I mean, I'm not sure what Disney is trying to sell it as seeing the trailer, but it's not family-friendly, either, so it doesn't help the month's variety anyway...

Yeah, you're right there. Not many options for May. I think the May numbers will really undersell what BO potential is actually there at that time in the market, as unless you're a horror person it'll be very barren. Makes the Black Widow move even more annoying. 

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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah, you're right there. Not many options for May. I think the May numbers will really undersell what BO potential is actually there at that time in the market, as unless you're a horror person it'll be very barren. Makes the Black Widow move even more annoying. 

May will probably be at like 70% of “normal” in terms of potential, but do like 20% of normal because no product. Oh well.

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1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

Black Widow is no more a kids film than Godzilla vs Kong, so I’m not so sure about that.

 

As far as theatre-Disney negotiations we will probably be able to tell what chains are likely to play Black Widow by May because Cruella is coming out then and I imagine it will be similar terms for both films. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Disney packages the two films to chains and they have to play both or none, which is clearly an asshole move, but all of these companies want their revenues to return towards normalcy, I don’t personally have a bet on what will happen because I don’t know what terms or conceits either side will offer but I’m sure it will get heated like it almost certainly did with Warner and Universal in the past.

 

As for the bad guy narrative, I really don’t think the average person will hate on Disney if their movies don’t appear at a certain chain of anything the theatre will take the brunt of the blame, which is unfortunate (as the blame should be shared between both parties in the event that happens) but as Wanda mentioned the memories formed in theatres are because of the movies we see and less so about the love of the theatre (again this is most people, personally even if theatres only showed a small selection of movies I’d still go every month or 2 because I love the big screen experience.) 

I wasn't talking about BW. But marvel movies are generally  more family friendly than a Godzilla movies. That is their strength. 

 

I dont think combo deal will work here as well. Chains wont play if deal does not make business sense. As I said earlier they would give a bigger cut to studio so that they make money through auxiliary sales. Now that is limited and so no deal unless its win win for both the parties. Especially with multiple studios playing ball with theatre chains. 

 

Ultimately I expect Disney to play ball as well. I hope so as well for well being of the industry. This is not a time to play bully. 

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4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

DOM: BW + Shang-Chi < GvK

 :Gaga:

Won't be surprised. 

Specially with BW. Too high expectations specially with uncertainty of theatres even playing this movie. 

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Lol. BW opening week> GvK and Shang-Chi opening week over GvK.   
 

Not a knock on GvK at all, which is doing gangbusters. But it is still April, covid impacts are large. Covid impacts July and Sep basically zilch, would be unsurprising to see inflated grosses around then from socializing boom.

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5 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Lol. BW opening week> GvK and Shang-Chi opening week over GvK.   
 

Not a knock on GvK at all, which is doing gangbusters. But it is still April, covid impacts are large. Covid impacts July and Sep basically zilch, would be unsurprising to see inflated grosses around then from socializing boom.

Yeh it’ll be much easier for Black Widow to open way over Godzilla Vs Kong. 
 

It comes at 

1. a much easier time pandemic wise

2. Costs double at home to watch ($30?)

3. First MCU film since.. Endgame? Can’t remember. 
 

 

Black Widow is my favourite marvel character and I’ve waiting for this film for 11 years. Pressure is on! 

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11 hours ago, lilmac said:

I hope this makes $100m+ in theaters if only for the symbolism. 
 

We could begin to see a real tug of war and corporate infighting between streaming and theatrical divisions in the major studios. 

Easily over 100M in one week. Probably 3 days 

 

i dont know The situation in Usa  but im expect 250m domestic min

Edited by fabiopazzo2
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This is the first MCU movie since Spider-man Far From Home (July 2nd, 2019).

 

And I would say Marvel's biggest strength is being four quadrant and having a wide array of heroes to pull in casuals.

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Here's a case. COVID outside China mostly become a news in Mar 13-15 weekend. Would you prefer this film releasing on Mar 6 2020 and getting 10 days of run in most market and delayed release in China in August 2020 or July 2021 release.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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