Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[eddyxx]

10 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

 

Are you uh...you doing alright?

 

Also, this...this is not 67%

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/in_the_heights_2021

They thought you were talking about The Incredible Hulk I think.

 

TIH vs ITH

[Horner]

7 hours ago, RRA said:

Somebody posted her video in this thread. As a carny, she knows how to get clicks from marks.

 

Yeah I don't much care for her but I can give credit where credit is due.  She knows how to cultivate a following.

 

And I'm seeing shades of what she was talking about echoed with these guys.  Namely the dipping of toes into the unpopular end of the pool.

 

 

My read on reactions like that is that Black Widow may end up suffering from being pushed back in amongst all of the Marvel streamed shows which have the luxury of time to marinate a bit longer and develop their characters in ways a single movie can't.  The D+ shows have changed some expectations but under the original plan that wouldn't have happened until after Black Widow.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Horner

[RRA]

33 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

They thought you were talking about The Incredible Hulk I think.

 

TIH vs ITH

Exactly. I mean we were talking spandex cinema after all.

[Cap]

12 hours ago, RRA said:

honestly as much as we fall into conspiracy theories, I think it’s much more simpler and basic: People really liked that first movie and the sequel (generally speaking) was considered a step down.

 

This is WAY WAY WAY too logical.  It can't be this.  😜

 

12 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

This doesn’t explain the temporal backloadedness of the negative reviews, which was far outside the norm. I don’t think there’s much conspiracy-ish to “digital pressers made it easier than usual for only friendly critics to see it first.”

 

I have a theory about this.  It's one of the first times we had a major theatrical release AND the home box office version at the SAME time.  So instead of getting in-depth retrospectives of the film like six months later, we got them immediately.  I had a copy at my house.  I could pause it.  I could create screencaps. I could give you a scene-by-scene breakdown on why this is absolute garbage.  Whereas if I saw it in the movie theater, I probably would've just been like "Yeah, that was okay" and not thought it was worth my time to think about it anymore. Like I'm not going to pay to see it again and take notes.  Whereas, if I'm at home...

 

So if the reviewers coming in later were NOT watching it at a presser rather at their home or off HBO Max, they could've been doing the same thing.

[Napoleon]

Disappointed to hear this movie has yet another CGI mess in the third act. I was hoping for a movie that felt more practical like the Mission Impossible films. 

[Maggie]

So what you guys are realistically predicting for this OW?  I see no more than 70M

[EmmaPeel]

I'm thinking 65M at best. 

[OdinSon2k14]

If the theater is gonna keep these inconvenient hours, I'll most likely catch this on Disney Plus, which I just got, after Loki released. The theater is back open, but, the first viewings start at 6-7PM? I've always been a mid-afternoon guy, occasionally matinee. Rare late nights, I did a 11:45PM for Infinity War...

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, OdinSon2k14 said:

If the theater is gonna keep these inconvenient hours, I'll most likely catch this on Disney Plus, which I just got, after Loki released. The theater is back open, but, the first viewings start at 6-7PM? I've always been a mid-afternoon guy, occasionally matinee. Rare late nights, I did a 11:45PM for Infinity War...

 

Previews start at 5pm.  Doesn't mean all theaters will do that, though I would presume more showtimes get added as we get closer to release.

 

Can always catch it on Friday though, you know.

[fabiopazzo2]

 

 

[Yandereprime101189]

On 6/19/2021 at 1:17 PM, Napoleon said:

Disappointed to hear this movie has yet another CGI mess in the third act. I was hoping for a movie that felt more practical like the Mission Impossible films. 

 

I mean, literally every third act battle in the MCU is packed with CGI (even Wandavision and Falcon and the Winter Soldier had CGI heavy finales) so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. 

 

It's not really a bad thing. 

Edited June 21, 2021 by Yandereprime101189

[Valonqar]

Synopsis leaked. I saved (if you want it PM me). Sounds real so spoilerphobes be careful when browsing MCU sites and on social media.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Valonqar

[KJsooner]

Been awhile since I posted, but I just can’t get hyped for this movie, the trailers have done nothing for me. Could see it getting very middling reviews.

[SpiderByte]

Idk why people are so down on the reactions when the vast majority are still positive. These are not nearly as mixed as, say, Captain Marvel.

Edited June 21, 2021 by SpiderByte

[Maggie]

6 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Idk why people are so down on the reactions when the vast majority are still positive. These are not nearly as mixed as, say, Captain Marvel.

And Captain Marvel made over 1B. If reviews are not disastrous (they won't be), i don't expect it to sink BW

Edited June 21, 2021 by Maggie

[Valonqar]

Nothing is sinking BW. 

[Krissykins]

Tickets booked for 7th of July.

 

I’m so excited! 

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

On 6/18/2021 at 8:21 PM, Lokis Legion said:

So, I understand there is a lot going on that contributes to uncertainty for the OW, but these legs look pretty weird. 155/65 would be 2.4, 225/90 is just 2.5.   

 

Suppose that previews make up a massive 20% of OW (being more preview heavy is a drag on the legs of course). Then the 65->155 run can be broken down as 13M previews, 52 pure FSS, 2.73 legs from pure FSS. 90->225 would be 18 previews, 72 true FSS, 2.88 legs from true FSS. 

 

That doesn't line up at all with previous legs for summer MCU, or previous July blockbusters generally, thanks to the summer weekdays. 

 

E.g.

AM1 3.4x True FSS multi

SMH 3.1x

AM&tW 3.2x

FFH 3.2x (Tues open)

 

And some selected big July openings of roughly similar genre:

TDKR 3.2x

TDK 3.7x (zeitgeist reception)

Transformers:DotM 2.95x (Wed open)

Dawn of Apes 3x 

 

Ostensibly the leg pessimism is from PA, but based on our (admittedly quite small and not that comparable) sample size of Raya and Cruella it seems like PA doesn't really hurt legs because it impacts the OW at least as much as the postOW. 

 

Tl;dr From a 90M OW I'd expect something like 16M previews, 74 true FSS x3+ for 240+

 

@Shawn Curious for your thoughts on above -- if you can find the time

 

It's really more of a worst case scenario representation -- basically in case it becomes the first D+PA release to have its legs affected and/or if word of mouth doesn't catch fire. Like you alluded to, Raya and Cruella don't necessarily suggest that kind of impact could happen... but they are just two data points, and even Raya itself is a throwaway at this point with its circumstances (lack of major markets, no built-in appeal, vaccine and sentiment progression, etc.).

 

The pinpoint total forecast, which isn't available in the free report, has a higher multiplier than that. We don't always deviate from the midpoint of ranges, but in this case, it's a highly unique situation as the first Marvel film going hybrid and doing so as the first big-budget tentpole to release this summer without theatrical exclusivity.

 

Also, those forecasts were modeled before any consideration of HT4 leaving July and potentially giving BW more time on a few premium screens. Probably not a massive effect, but still, a minor consideration for higher priced screen availability in BW's chase weeks.

[poweranimals]

On 6/19/2021 at 7:58 AM, Horner said:

.And I'm seeing shades of what she was talking about echoed with these guys.  Namely the dipping of toes into the unpopular end of the pool.

 

 

My read on reactions like that is that Black Widow may end up suffering from being pushed back in amongst all of the Marvel streamed shows which have the luxury of time to marinate a bit longer and develop their characters in ways a single movie can't.  The D+ shows have changed some expectations but under the original plan that wouldn't have happened until after Black Widow.

That was kinda painful to watch. Why are they laughing so much? Nothing they said was even funny. At one point, the guy with the glasses thinks he's so funny that spit comes flying out of his mouth. 😶

Edited June 23, 2021 by poweranimals