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Black Widow | Marvel Studios | 1st May, 2020 | Now Featuring William Hurt as General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross | NO FANBOY WARS/TROLLING ALLOWED | Keep Calm and Trust Papa Feige

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

thats 940

No, TWS WW performance would correspond to just 900M.    
 

I’m aware that DOM and OS don’t add up to WW, there’s no particular reason they would with this method since they’re all growing at different rates.

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40 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In addition to Black Widow, I can see Hom3coming missing $1B if the schedule stays the same. 

Dropping over 10% from it’s predecessor ??? Have you met the MCU? Not even Ultron did that.

Edited by Arendelle Legion

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18 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Dropping over 10% from it’s predecessor ??? Have you met the MCU? Not even Ultron did that.

I’m sorry but things change over time, especially with high competition.

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11 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m sorry but things change over time, especially with high competition.

Competition is over rated. Movies with big interest will do big business.     
 

Sure things change over time, but predicting a 12% drop for an MCU sequel when 0/12 have done so (and the only drop was regression to the mean from a huge overperformer, which FFH wasn’t) is a pretty bold take.

 

I mean by the time Spider-man 3 comes out it will need to do worse than Homecoming to miss a billion. 

Edited by Arendelle Legion

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2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Competition is over rated. Movies with big interest will do big business.     
 

Sure things change over time, but predicting a 12% drop for an MCU sequel when 0/12 have done so (and the only drop was regression to the mean from a huge overperformer, which FFH wasn’t) is a pretty bold take.

So was predicting Pixar would have a flop. It may be unlikely but it happened eventually as Spidey 2 open in a relatively demographic competition free area with Endgame hype which some overpredicted DOM. If competition stays the same as The Batman, Jurassic and Indy seem like big fish, at the very least, I think a domestic decrease is happening.

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1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

So was predicting Pixar would have a flop. It may be unlikely but it happened eventually as Spidey 2 open in a relatively demographic competition free area with Endgame hype which some overpredicted DOM. If competition stays the same as The Batman, Jurassic and Indy seem like big fish, at the very least, I think a domestic decrease is happening.

Batman and JW are not a concern as they open pretty far away from FFH. Only problem may be Indy but we'll see if it even makes that date. 

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1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Hope this is more a spy thriller and doesn’t get overwhelmed by comedy and CGI. Not holding my breath though 

I think it is more like a political thriller that explores the US-RUSSIA relationship. It is gonna be very thought-provoking. I would not be surprised if it adds some modern politics to it, e.g. Russia meddling 2016 US election or something like that. 

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4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

So was predicting Pixar would have a flop. It may be unlikely but it happened eventually as Spidey 2 open in a relatively demographic competition free area with Endgame hype which some overpredicted DOM. If competition stays the same as The Batman, Jurassic and Indy seem like big fish, at the very least, I think a domestic decrease is happening.

Oh well sure, 340+720 or something would be a disappointment, but not shocking. But to miss a billion it probably needs to do under Homecoming’s unadjusted DOM gross. That seems a bit much given the cliffhanger and good reception to FFH.

Edited by Arendelle Legion

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Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

Oh well sure, 340+720 or something would be a bit of a disappointment, but not shocking. But to miss a billion it probably needs to do under Homecoming’s unadjusted DOM gross. That seems a bit much given the cliffhanger and good reception to FFH.

Again, I don’t think sub $1B is anywhere locked but I don’t think $1B+ while highly likely, isn’t locked either. Also don’t get how $1.06B is a disappointment, as only 9 MCU films have done it so far. I think the Panther/IW/Captain Marvel/Endgame/FFH high does show the strength of the MCU brand, but I don’t think every film they make is guaranteed to be a $1B hit. That’s just not realistic.

 

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Batman and JW are not a concern as they open pretty far away from FFH. Only problem may be Indy but we'll see if it even makes that date. 

Summer 2021 is the first summer where we have CBMs for all the months:

Strange 2 in early May

Batman in late June

Spid3y in mid July  

Twocide in early August

 

Yes, 2018 Summer had IW/Dead2ool/I2/Ant Man in consecutive months and both IW and I2 did $600M DOM/$1.2B WW each, I think we can agree none of the four are sniffing them and while I do think they’ll survive and likely all do $300M+, I can see a lot of business being eaten into each other.

 

JW3 while not a direct factor nor hurt Spid3y, should do $1B. It’s the back to back action combo of Batman/Indy 5/Spid3y/MI7 that seems problematic, even though I’m sure all will be big hits.

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4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Also don’t get how $1.06B is a disappointment, as only 9 MCU films have done it so far.

One of which is its predecessor. An MCU sequel having any kind of fall is a disappointment unless the previous one did absolutely nuts (Like, AoU falling is fine, TA was WW #3. An Endgame successor falling obviously is fine. BP2 falling would be fine. That’s about it).

Edited by Arendelle Legion

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4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

One of which is its predecessor. An MCU sequel having any kind of fall is a disappointment unless the previous one did absolutely nuts (Like, AoU falling is fine, TA was WW #3. An Endgame successor falling obviously is fine. BP2 falling would be fine. That’s about it).

Not really considering most sequels do fall. An outrageous fall is disappointing but I get your point.

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wait I just watched it again.

 

Why does she have her hair and costume from Endgame if it takes place between Winter Soldier and Civil War? 
 

Rachel and Florence are wearing the Endgame widow costumes too. 

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1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Not really considering most sequels do fall. An outrageous fall is disappointing but I get your point.

Yeah, the thing is that MCU sequels are not best thought of as “sequels”. They’re best thought of as “MCU sequels.” There’s a medium sample size at this point and they clearly have behavior which wildly differs from sequels in general (which drop, sometimes hard).   
 

This trend may turn around at some point, but the correct point to be expecting down is definitely not after:

up,up,up,up,down,up,up,up,up,up,up,up

maaaybe after 

up,up,up,up,down,up,up,up,up,up,up,up, down

but even that seems kind of strange to me. Now if you get several downs close to each other, that’s a sign that we may be in a new status quo.

Edited by Arendelle Legion

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1 hour ago, Eric Plus said:

Expecting Space Jam 2 to be some big hit is basically asking to be disappointed.

Yeah, I feel like there's definitely a ceiling for that. 

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6 hours ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

Captain Marvel DOM and WW numbers should be the goal for this film and Wonder Woman 1984

That's a stretch. I don't see any movie in 2020 reach CM's number. Maybe Mulan, maybe

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