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Black Widow | May 7 2021 | No one is coming to save us

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They know exhibitors are sweating right now after the industry gave them false hope that Tenet and Wonder Woman would bring moviegoers back upon reopening (between the former not panning out and the latter moving back because of it) so they're probably trying to figure out what to do without making overseas distributors ready to go even more annoyed at us holding the movies back due to our inability to get everything under control. If Soul is released in November we'll know they're banking on overseas to save it while it flops here.

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17 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Could be Soul moves up, and Black Widow moves back to Thanksgiving? A small kickback so they don't need to scrap the entire slate again

 

I doubt it. Disney are well aware that parents and their kids are unlikely to turn up in massive numbers anytime soon, particularly in the US, so a Pixar film is likely to either be delayed into next year when kids films are hopefully more viable At the box office, or it’ll go to Disney+ Premier Access.

 

Personally, I wasn’t bothered about paying for Mulan, but I’d definitely pay PVOD pricing for Soul and Black Widow. I think they’d be better off delaying BW though, they’d make more releasing it post vaccine than they would from PVOD, the pent up demand for a Marvel movie by then will be significant.

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Black Widow will be profitable with its current release date though. Is Disney not happy with Tenet's international total either? I think the movie would still be profitable if it completely skipped DOM.

Edited by lorddemaxus

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3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Black Widow will be profitable with its current release date though. Is Disney not happy with Tenet's international total either? I think the movie would still be profitable if it completely skipped DOM.

we will know what will happen end of sept , early oct , i would say, 

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this would make 850m ww at least in normal situation.

so releasing now and make maybe 500m with less than 250 cut for them is obviously not that great.

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32 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Black Widow will be profitable with its current release date though. Is Disney not happy with Tenet's international total either? I think the movie would still be profitable if it completely skipped DOM.

Being profitable or not with just OS isn’t really what’s important though. It’s how much difference in expected profit. 
 

E.g. a movie that would do -20M now and +20M later has a much less compelling case for delay than one that would do +100 now and +350 later.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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31 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Black Widow will be profitable with its current release date though. Is Disney not happy with Tenet's international total either? I think the movie would still be profitable if it completely skipped DOM.

Tenet is doing okay internationally given what it’s currently up against, but when you compare it to what a Nolan film would make under normal circumstances it’s still underperforming. Dunkirk made $80 million in the UK, Tenet went even sniff that, it’ll probably make $20-25 million if it’s lucky.

 

I know we have to adjust our expectations for the current market, but I can’t see how any studio would look at what Tenet is doing and think “let’s release our big blockbuster next month!”.

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8 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Dunkirk made $80 million in the UK, Tenet went even sniff that, it’ll probably make $20-25 million if it’s lucky.

Dunkirk in the UK is a very special case because of the movie historic connection, Interstellar was bigger Intl ($466m to Dunkirk $330m) and made $31M in the UK even Inception was not $80m in the UK.

 

I think using a mix of Dunkirk/Interstellar with a market by market point of view is the way to go, $25M in the UK would not be necessarily underperforming, that Once Upon a time..... in Hollywood level during a pandemy.

 

80M is not far than what Endgame did in the UK, it is more than the last Star Wars.

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29 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Dunkirk made $80 million in the UK, Tenet went even sniff that, it’ll probably make $20-25 million if it’s lucky

It's pretty easy to understand why Dunkirk made $80 mil in the UK lol. The evacuation of Dunkirk is one of the important and influential parts of UK history. Dunkirk would've made huge money regardless of who directed it. Tenet should be compared to Interstellar and Inception which came nowhere close to Dunkirk either.

 

And either way, Tenet should end up with almost $300 mil OS which is pretty close to Dunkirk's OS and I'd consider that a win.

34 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Being profitable or not with just OS isn’t really what’s important though. It’s how much difference in expected profit. 
 

E.g. a movie that would do -20M now and +20M later has a much less compelling case for delay than one that would do +100 now and +350 later.

I think it's better to make a profit now rather than delay the entire MCU schedule again. Releasing a film that ends up being profitable at this point would also do wonders for Disney's stock.

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
41 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

I think it's better to make a profit now rather than delay the entire MCU schedule again

Def agree with this. The question is how much really gets held up by a BW delay. Right now we’ve got films in Nov 2020, Feb 21, May 21, Dec 21. So between July/Aug/Oct/Nov they left themselves plenty of room to push the next 3 without having to delay the father out ones further.

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18 hours ago, xiazhi said:

It's the new norm of Hollywood. We have no choice but accept it.

'We' have a choice. Actually 'we' have a lot of choices.

To look at the public behaviour history of the person in question's behaviour is one of those.

To not assume based on stereotypes in general is another choice 'we' can make.

 

Beside that, this 'new norm of Hollywood' is definitivley nothing new, only how those that want to use the 'loud' publicity get themselves into the awareness of the public has changed.

In the past e.g. drunken parties with damages was far more widespread than nowadays, For some stars 'a must' behaviour then.

And that is only one example out of many, the yellow press (UK term, I forgot the US version's nick name) is way older than social media.

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16 hours ago, SnokesLegs said:

Tenet is doing okay internationally given what it’s currently up against, but when you compare it to what a Nolan film would make under normal circumstances it’s still underperforming. Dunkirk made $80 million in the UK, Tenet went even sniff that, it’ll probably make $20-25 million if it’s lucky.

 

I know we have to adjust our expectations for the current market, but I can’t see how any studio would look at what Tenet is doing and think “let’s release our big blockbuster next month!”.

Tenet is currently doing 75% of Interstellar's business in the UK. That is really really good in my opinion, given the current circumstances.

 

Dunkirk is a strange comparison given how huge that is. You know $80 million the UK, that's equivalent to the film grossing $500M in North America... not an ordinary performance at all.

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22 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's pretty easy to understand why Dunkirk made $80 mil in the UK lol. The evacuation of Dunkirk is one of the important and influential parts of UK history. Dunkirk would've made huge money regardless of who directed it. Tenet should be compared to Interstellar and Inception which came nowhere close to Dunkirk either.

 

And either way, Tenet should end up with almost $300 mil OS which is pretty close to Dunkirk's OS and I'd consider that a win.

I think it's better to make a profit now rather than delay the entire MCU schedule again. Releasing a film that ends up being profitable at this point would also do wonders for Disney's stock.

Teant with a 200 Million dolllar budget needs 400 Million just to break even. That is being profitible?

Franky, you are a bit silly in your attempts to prove how great a sucess Tenat is.

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9 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Teant with a 200 Million dolllar budget needs 400 Million just to break even. That is being profitible?

Franky, you are a bit silly in your attempts to prove how great a sucess Tenat is.

Did I say Tenet was a success? Did I say it is profitable? You're not even putting words in my mouth here. You're saying shit I didn't even say.

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WandaVision is confirmed today to be released still in 2020, and it wasn't suppose to be the opener of Phase 4

 

Let's see how this goes, i think BW will go to Eternals date

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Disney just released a new spot with all the stuff coming out through this year. Soul and Black Widow weren't on it, but WandaVision was, and since it feels unlikely they'd want to start Phase 4 with the one that's basically a sitcom that makes me think that if it does move it won't be out of 2020.

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unless I've missed something, it's still not confirmed for 2020. Disney just says, "In the coming months". "Coming soon".

 

 

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