Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Daxtreme]

30% is a highly improbable number. I'd wager that 50% of people who pay for disney+ don't even open the app more than once a month, let alone pay an addition $30 to watch a movie they probably don't even know is on the service.

 

Bullshit number if you ask me

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

30% is a highly improbable number. I'd wager that 50% of people who pay for disney+ don't even open the app more than once a month, let alone pay an addition $30 to watch a movie they probably don't even know is on the service.

 

Bullshit number if you ask me

Here's the likely 29%...

 

"29% of Disney+ users who logged on that weekend bought Mulan"...

 

So, it's a hint of truth, and is wildly wrong, and Screenrant has the true catastrophic revenue numbers...

[Avatree]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Here's the likely 29%...

 

"29% of Disney+ users who logged on that weekend bought Mulan"...

 

So, it's a hint of truth, and is wildly wrong, and Screenrant has the true catastrophic revenue numbers...

That would be a lot more likely. Literally no way that 30% of Disney subscribers bought Mulan. 0% chance of that.

[Macleod]

3 minutes ago, Avatree said:

That would be a lot more likely. Literally no way that 30% of Disney subscribers bought Mulan. 0% chance of that.

Either way, come on folks - we know that, if forced to, asking consumers to go for BLACK WIDOW on Disney+ would be infinitely more guaranteed revenue... Mulan was nowhere close to being the kind of sure-thing that the MCU currently is. 

[Avatree]

7 minutes ago, Macleod said:

Either way, come on folks - we know that, if forced to, asking consumers to go for BLACK WIDOW on Disney+ would be infinitely more guaranteed revenue... Mulan was nowhere close to being the kind of sure-thing that the MCU currently is. 

And equally, Black Widow has far more to gain by getting a theatrical release than Mulan did. 

[Valonqar]

In short, Disney fucked up and is trying a positive spin but this is a crazy situation so what is really a good move? Tenet isn't doing hot either. So damn if you go theatrical, damn if you go streaming. 

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

30% is a highly improbable number. I'd wager that 50% of people who pay for disney+ don't even open the app more than once a month, let alone pay an addition $30 to watch a movie they probably don't even know is on the service.

 

Bullshit number if you ask me

Evidence?

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

In short, Disney fucked up and is trying a positive spin but this is a crazy situation so what is really a good move? Tenet isn't doing hot either. So damn if you go theatrical, damn if you go streaming. 

 

So, if you're damned either way, you save the more lucrative stream...theatrical, at least for now with people still proving they won't pay much for digital, is it...

 

And Tenet does look like it will definitely make more overall revenue - heck, it may make more just comparing its theatrical vs Mulan's PVOD + theatrical...

[Daxtreme]

24 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Evidence?

 

I said "I'd wager that [...]" 

[Avatree]

56 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Evidence?

There is no evidence. The streaming services deliberately make it very difficult for the public to obtain data.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, if you're damned either way, you save the more lucrative stream...theatrical, at least for now with people still proving they won't pay much for digital, is it...

 

And Tenet does look like it will definitely make more overall revenue - heck, it may make more just comparing its theatrical vs Mulan's PVOD + theatrical...

Good point! 

[SpiderByte]

Disney's next Investor Day is October 7th. If this or Soul is going on Premier Access, they will almost certainly say so there.

Edited September 19, 2020 by SpiderByte

[Blaze Heatnix]

Looks like the Mulan's numbers might not be real?

 

 

[wildphantom]

If Mulan’s D+ performance was indeed as mediocre as we believe, the answer seems obvious for this model to make decent change.
 

Charge less and open it out to all platforms. Worldwide. Same time. 

 

$15 on Apple, Amazon etc 

$10 to Disney+ subscribers 

 

If it’s on every platform it will be plastered everywhere for people to know it’s coming and how they can access it. Give people choices and make the price reasonable. 
 

Make it an event!! Claim the date! Make it like it’s the Super Bowl. 
 

That’s the only way we’re ever going to know if PVOD is a viable route for a big blockbuster. If a brand new MCU movie can’t put up big numbers then nobody can. 
 

Of course this won’t happen as they will want to charge more and not share the money with anybody.  For me, I have to take into account I’m not getting the same experience as I would seeing it in a theater.  $10 - much more like it. $20 plus, when I’m getting every Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Star Wars movie for $6? Come on now. 

[KJsooner]

Seeing those atrocious numbers for Mulan. No way black widow goes to Disney plus.

[reddevil19]

11 hours ago, wildphantom said:

If Mulan’s D+ performance was indeed as mediocre as we believe, the answer seems obvious for this model to make decent change.
 

Charge less and open it out to all platforms. Worldwide. Same time. 

 

$15 on Apple, Amazon etc 

$10 to Disney+ subscribers 

 

If it’s on every platform it will be plastered everywhere for people to know it’s coming and how they can access it. Give people choices and make the price reasonable. 
 

Make it an event!! Claim the date! Make it like it’s the Super Bowl. 
 

That’s the only way we’re ever going to know if PVOD is a viable route for a big blockbuster. If a brand new MCU movie can’t put up big numbers then nobody can. 
 

Of course this won’t happen as they will want to charge more and not share the money with anybody.  For me, I have to take into account I’m not getting the same experience as I would seeing it in a theater.  $10 - much more like it. $20 plus, when I’m getting every Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Star Wars movie for $6? Come on now. 

This.

In early August, in the Tenet thread, this is what I said:

On 8/8/2020 at 11:05 AM, reddevil19 said:

To be honest, what that reads as to me is "Shit...I dunno what's gonna happen". Not necessarily in a "we have no plan" sort of way, but in a "we have a few half-baked plans" sort of way.

 

It's clear everyone believes shortening the theatrical window is a done deal, but it's also clear that, if anyone wants to make money off theatrical right now, they need to do it through long legs and a long release.

It's also clear every major studio is fucked in terms of streaming compared to Disney, due to international reach. International distribution rights have made a right mess of back catalogs, making worldwide roll-out difficult for Max, or Peacock or whatever the fuck else is out there. Compare that to Disney+, and you can see why going the Mulan route just isn't an option. Most studios don't have one streaming service to go on that has a massive reach. 

 

I doubt Mulan will draw many new subscribers that would then have to pay a premium for the movie itself. I also doubt the majority of subscribers will pay for it. But when the base is already high enough, even a 30-40% purchase rate would mean a wild success. That's what makes Disney's move a potentially good one but not an option for other studios. Streaming services are too fragmented and VOD is just too small a segment internationally.

 

What COULD be interesting is if someone approached Netflix and worked out a deal - instead of outright selling the movie to them, let's say WB put one of their big releases on there. Let's say WW84 for argument's sake. Do a 24-48 hour window to watch from time of payment, and make it 15 bucks. 30% split for Netflix and first dibs on streaming rights once the original window ends (say, give it 3 months of this model, 2 months for Blu Ray, then "free", subscription-based streaming). Considering the subscriber base for Netflix and the reasonable cost for a prime release... I dunno, I'd certainly pay that. But I can't see studios doing that either. So, the alternative is for studios to accelerate roll-out of their streaming services worldwide.

Firstly, I did believe Mulan COULD reach 30% of subscribers, but obviously the WOM and handling of the release fucked that. But my point stands that, if Disney fucked up, then other studios, with far smaller reach on streaming are fucked unless they go proper wide, as they would with theatrical - hit every platform or, yes, I would love to see someone approach Netflix. Netflix may not play ball, sure, but it's the only way to replicate a global release as you would with a cinema distribution model. PVOD platforms just aren't a thing in most of the world, whereas Netflix is everywhere. And the potential increase in subscribers that Netflix would get might make them interested.

 

The key for me though remains having a much lower price point, but for a rental, not purchase. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

I really don't know what's so hard to understand? Between paying to watch a movie at home, and pirating it, people will ALWAYS choose piracy, no matter how low the price is, especially OS where people doesn't give a fuck about VOD. Just give up already.

[Burgess]

I think there’s a psychological component. Going out to a movie may cost as much or more than a VOD purchase/rental, but there are two things theaters offer that watching from home does not: a night outside the house and a higher quality viewing experience. Dropping $30.00 to $50.00 for an experience is more digestible than spending it on convenience. Especially when one can go without the convenience.


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[dudalb]

16 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

I really don't know what's so hard to understand? Between paying to watch a movie at home, and pirating it, people will ALWAYS choose piracy, no matter how low the price is, especially OS where people doesn't give a fuck about VOD. Just give up already.

True, but that does not say anything good about the ethics of people in general.

[dudalb]

14 hours ago, Burgess said:

I think there’s a psychological component. Going out to a movie may cost as much or more than a VOD purchase/rental, but there are two things theaters offer that watching from home does not: a night outside the house and a higher quality viewing experience. Dropping $30.00 to $50.00 for an experience is more digestible than spending it on convenience. Especially when one can go without the convenience.


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I have been saying all along there is just a big psycholocial barrier fo people to pay that much to see a movie on streaming Underline Movie. Disney got away with charging really high prices for Hamilton because they sold it as a special unique Broadway event. They failed to do that with Mulan.

And, yes, people like to go out with family and.or friends on occasion ,get out of the house. Someghint a lot of people ehre who are procliaming the death of theaters just don't get.