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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

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18 hours ago, Macleod said:

Bet on longer, especially since enough people still don't seem to have patience to do what it takes to curb the spread, and at least until there's a vaccine...and even then, it will be months after that until people en-masse begin to go back to theaters like the old "normal"...if it even happens.  

Not to mention that  it'a given that the advetn of cold weather will cause a major increase in the covic numbers. as it hitchikes on the normal increase in colds and flus we get every year.

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17 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

If Soul goes to Disney+ I really don't see how Black Widow doesn't. Especially since Soul probably cost more.

 

Plus, frankly, Disney needs to make Premier Access a win. Or more specifically, they need to make it look like a win since Disney+ is one of the only bright spots in an otherwise shitty year. There is zero doubt that a Marvel movie, the biggest film franchise on the planet, wouldn't do much much better in the same release format as Mulan.

I thinn Black Widow is a bigger release for Disney then Soul is. It's  the first Marvel Studios Only post Endgame film (Spidey was a co production) and quite a bit is riding on it.

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Just now, dudalb said:

I thinn Black Widow is a bigger release for Disney then Soul is. It's  the first Marvel Studios Only post Endgame film (Spidey was a co production) and quite a bit is riding on it.

Which is why I don't think they can afford to just kick it down the road. It would make a billion in theaters...under normal circumstances. No movie is making a billion anytime soon, maybe not even till 2022.  Black Widow is a guaranteed hit and there's only so long Disney will be willing to sit on it.

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I think studios are probably happy enough with Tenet's OS performance to release their big tentpoles rather than continue delaying them or put them on a streaming service. If Tenet can make $250 mil OS and $50 mil DOM, I think Black Widow should easily do $500 mil OS and $100 mil DOM.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think studios are probably happy enough with Tenet's OS performance to release their big tentpoles rather than continue delaying them or put them on a streaming service. If Tenet can make $250 mil OS and $50 mil DOM, I think Black Widow should easily do $500 mil OS and $100 mil DOM.

...were you asleep yesterday?

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1 hour ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

...were you asleep yesterday?

My point still stands. Wonder Woman 1984 will be a way more domestic heavy movie and I wouldn't be surprised if it makes Tenet money OS with its current release, which would still put it in flop territory. Black Widow can easily double that OS I think.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think studios are probably happy enough with Tenet's OS performance to release their big tentpoles rather than continue delaying them or put them on a streaming service. If Tenet can make $250 mil OS and $50 mil DOM, I think Black Widow should easily do $500 mil OS and $100 mil DOM.

 

I'm gonna agree - of the 2 release strategies over Labor Day, while Tenet's full theatrical release isn't good yet (and may never be), Mulan's premium VOD plus partial theatrical release looks to be even more disastrous financially...

 

So, I think tentpoles that are done are gonna space out and release fully over the next 12 months...and I think tentpoles that are not done are just not gonna film right now, since there's no need to further build the tentpole backlog...it's gonna be the "get as much as you can" strategy...Tenet's release is the more likely to accomplish that for PG-13 and R movies...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think studios are probably happy enough with Tenet's OS performance to release their big tentpoles rather than continue delaying them or put them on a streaming service. If Tenet can make $250 mil OS and $50 mil DOM, I think Black Widow should easily do $500 mil OS and $100 mil DOM.

So happy they immediately threw Wonder Woman and Dune right out the window

Edited by SpiderByte
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2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

If WB isn't happy with Tenets performance I can't possibly fucking imagine why Disney would be

I was talking specifically about the OS performance which is pretty good. Black Widow's OS performance should take it to break even. They moved Wonder Woman because as I said, it needs DOM to break even.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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9 hours ago, cax16 said:

I think this is the only factor that will really determine where and when BW releases, how connected it is going forward and when the D+ shows will premier. 

Exactly Iger and now Chapek have reiterated many times that streaming is their number one priority and while this may be sacrilege to say on a box office forum Falcon and the Winter Soldier and WandaVision are much more important to Disney right now than Black Widow. If it was Endgame sure they’d wait that out until market conditions improve but I’m getting the sense that one of the MCU shows needs to drop around the end of the year or early next year (particularly as they will be in Latin America in November and are starting to rollout in SEA right now) and they may just have to put out Black Widow however they can for that to work. 

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25 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I was talking specifically about the OS performance which is pretty good. Black Widow's OS performance should take it to break even. They moved Wonder Woman because as I said, it needs DOM to break even.

OR they could release Black Widow next year and make twice as much money.

 

Bit of a no brainer don't you think... ?

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14 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Exactly Iger and now Chapek have reiterated many times that streaming is their number one priority and while this may be sacrilege to say on a box office forum Falcon and the Winter Soldier and WandaVision are much more important to Disney right now than Black Widow. If it was Endgame sure they’d wait that out until market conditions improve but I’m getting the sense that one of the MCU shows needs to drop around the end of the year or early next year (particularly as they will be in Latin America in November and are starting to rollout in SEA right now) and they may just have to put out Black Widow however they can for that to work. 

Black Widow is a prequel. It doesn't matter if it's released today or in 3 years time. Obviously there will be some small connections to upcoming Marvel shows/movies but Black Widow is the one single MCU film which isn't actually constrained by its release slot.

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1 hour ago, tree said:

Black Widow is a prequel. It doesn't matter if it's released today or in 3 years time. Obviously there will be some small connections to upcoming Marvel shows/movies but Black Widow is the one single MCU film which isn't actually constrained by its release slot.

Captain Marvel was also a prequel, just because it’s set in the past doesn’t mean Black Widow won’t set up things for the future of the MCU. 

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1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

Captain Marvel was also a prequel, just because it’s set in the past doesn’t mean Black Widow won’t set up things for the future of the MCU. 

Uhh... Exactly my point..

Captain Marvel (2019) had jack shit to do with Endgame. It was a back story.

 

Forget the Captain Marvel film exists and Endgame is the exact same film. 

 

Don't pretend for a second like the people who watched Endgame without seeing CM (over half the audience) didn't understand Captain Marvel when she was introduced in Endgame...

 

 

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19 hours ago, tree said:

Black Widow is a prequel. It doesn't matter if it's released today or in 3 years time. Obviously there will be some small connections to upcoming Marvel shows/movies but Black Widow is the one single MCU film which isn't actually constrained by its release slot.

Unless other stuff including the shows tie into elements established in this, which rumors say there is. Delaying Black Widow to 2021 also means delaying everything else.

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