Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[XXR vs XXR]

Looking at the numbers, I'm not really worried about this film at this point. I expect a hybrid release just to make people comfortable, but at least 80 million people will be fully vaccinated by May 7th (in the US). Couple in the fact that north of 30 million people will for sure have had the virus (the real number is probably 3x higher) and I expect more than 50% of the population will have immunity.

 

It'll be enough for a decent amount of theaters to be open and seating to be available. 

[Legion Again]

The big game for capacity is having LA and NYC open, which will depend a lot of death and case rates near there. I expect both to be quite good by April, which will give enough time to phase in reopening. 

[Maggie]

21 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Looking at the numbers, I'm not really worried about this film at this point. I expect a hybrid release just to make people comfortable, but at least 80 million people will be fully vaccinated by May 7th (in the US). Couple in the fact that north of 30 million people will for sure have had the virus (the real number is probably 3x higher) and I expect more than 50% of the population will have immunity.

 

It'll be enough for a decent amount of theaters to be open and seating to be available. 

I don't think it will be that easy. What about the new strains?  People can get reinfected with them

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines

Edited January 17, 2021 by Maggie

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

Yes, in the US it does. Just wait if you must, but 4 months from now it’s going to be like night and day.

There is no way you will see a big opening without NYC/CA opening wide. That may not happen by the release date. Plus in other markets as well 100% filled screens look tough to me. Still even without that Disney will release and make the most  for 4 weeks and then premier on Disney Plus. Of course China and Asia/Pacific should do very well. Not sure about rest of the world. 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no way you will see a big opening without NYC/CA opening wide.

Agreed.

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That may not happen by the release date.

Agreed, but chances look pretty good to me for now.

 

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Plus in other markets as well 100% filled screens look tough to me.

Oh for sure, I don’t expect 100% seating until the fall or so. But 50% seating is really no obstacle to a 100M opening when it can just get double the screens it normally would because nothing else is making money for exhibitors.  
 

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Still even without that Disney will release and make the most  for 4 weeks and then premier on Disney Plus.

Sounds like the perfect release plan to me (assuming you mean PA) 👍

[XXR vs XXR]

24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I don't think it will be that easy. What about the new strains?  People can get reinfected with them

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines

From your own article...

"So far, the virus does not appear to have become resistant to COVID-19 vaccines, says vaccinologist Philip Krause, who chairs a WHO working group on COVID-19 vaccines."

[charlie Jatinder]

Dump it on D+ and be done with it. I think it will make enough ($200-250mn) internationally to be not a Disaster like WW84.

 

If East Asia has D+ by then, than may be lower.

Edited January 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I still think Disney was gonna announce release of their films on D+ in December, just didn't after WB fuck up. 🤣

 

They did put their immediate next movie on D+ (Raya and The Last Dragon). Next one's Widow.

Edited January 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Maggie]

I hope for one more delay to Shang Chi' spot, but i don't think it will happen. Probably going to Disney + in May

Edited January 21, 2021 by Maggie

[Gavin Feng]

I guess moving it to D+ or not will only be clear after Raya's performance. If Raya could do very well instead of being another Mulan, BW will have a big chance to go streaming world.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Gavin Feng

[Legion Again]

Disney would be insane to Disney+ this the way May is looking. Most we might see is hybrid PA, but that functions quite differently from a release plan like Mulan or WW84 — the cheapest way for a party of 1 or 2 to see the movie is still via tickets rather than online.

[Legion Again]

Still looking at 750-1.05 or so WW with a May 7 pure theatrical release.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Still looking at 750-1.05 or so WW with a May 7 pure theatrical release.

Edited January 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Boring. 

Boring? We haven’t had a movie do close to that since TROS, I think it would be pretty exciting to get some good numbers again.

[Maggie]

19 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Still looking at 750-1.05 or so WW with a May 7 pure theatrical release.

It's just not happening. The virus will still be wrecking havoc through the world, plus the hype is gone

Edited January 21, 2021 by Maggie

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

It's just not happening. The virus will still be wrecking havoc through the world, plus the hype is gone

The virus won’t be wrecking much havoc, and the hype isn’t gone. Just wait and see.

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Boring? We haven’t had a movie do close to that since TROS, I think it would be pretty exciting to get some good numbers again.

If this can get 10mn more subs in USA and LATAM, and $200mn in East Asia I will be more happy.

Edited January 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[YM!]

51 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Boring? We haven’t had a movie do close to that since TROS, I think it would be pretty exciting to get some good numbers again.

Tbh there’s a good chance we don’t see a film over TROS WW this year.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Tbh there’s a good chance we don’t see a film over TROS WW this year.

Really not. I guess we might not see one until December though, if things go poorly.

Edited January 21, 2021 by WandaLegion

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Tbh there’s a good chance we don’t see a film over TROS WW this year.

So you think Detective China Town 3 isn't doing a Billion Dollar in China. 🤨