Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Fullbuster]

Why Black Widow's Disney+ Release Just Became More Likely

Black Widow's release is uncertain, and with UK cinemas not opening until after its current release date, a Disney+ hybrid model may be more likely.

https://screenrant.com/black-widow-movie-disney-plus-release-delay-happen/

 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

Why Black Widow's Disney+ Release Just Became More Likely

Black Widow's release is uncertain, and with UK cinemas not opening until after its current release date, a Disney+ hybrid model may be more likely.

https://screenrant.com/black-widow-movie-disney-plus-release-delay-happen/

 

NO

[Macleod]

New York just announced theaters will open at 25% capacity at the beginning of March... so equally optimistic news to counteract the UK news.  

 

But I'd still...still...be willing to bet this ultimately goes hybrid.  

[Fullbuster]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

NO

 

 

[Avatree]

36 minutes ago, Macleod said:

New York just announced theaters will open at 25% capacity at the beginning of March... so equally optimistic news to counteract the UK news.  

 

But I'd still...still...be willing to bet this ultimately goes hybrid.  

Good news or bad news isn't going to change anything. If a studio wants to release a major film in 2021, the film WILL be released on streaming. Whether it's released March or December, it will be on streaming.

 

IMO there is no decision of "Going to theaters vs. going streaming/hybrid". It's "Release it streaming this year, or delay it another year for potential full theatrical release"

 

And do you think disney wants to release Black Widow this year, or delay it another year?

 

It will soon be 2 whole years, 24 months, of no MCU films. (Which feels crazy!)

I would imagine Disney wants to keep the MCU audience actively engaged. So I think they will release it sooner rather than later.

 

Black Widow can be utilised as the first "premium" blockbuster film to be released to Disney+, could be really effective in getting people subscribed to the service. I would bet there are a lot of MCU fans/audience who haven't got Disney+ but would subscribe for an Avengers related movie. (I am one of them.. I'm letting my Disney+ subscription expire next week, but I would re-sub for Black Widow)

[Maggie]

I imagine Disney+ will reach a peak soon and no matter how many Marvel movies they release on streaming, people who want to subscribe have already done it.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

I imagine Disney+ will reach a peak soon and no matter how many Marvel movies they release on streaming, people who want to subscribe have already done it.

But, then they have to keep them...and that also takes money and product.

 

Stale services get dropped...especially those looking to put in price increases this year and next...

[Avatree]

Avengers Endgame sold 300+ million tickets in box office. Disney+ currently has 95 million subscribers. They haven't even cracked one third of the potential Marvel audience, let alone the wider audience for other movies/shows.

 

Don't really see why they would hit a ceiling soon.

 

Netflix has had the same rate of growth for 7 years and it will continue in the same upward direction. Don't see why Disney+ can't do a similar growth.

 

[Maggie]

Netflix has 74M subscribers in US+Canada.  Disney+ already has 94M. I don't think there's much growth in the future, but as @TwoMisfits said, now it's about keeping those subscribers

[cax16]

32 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Netflix has 74M subscribers in US+Canada.  Disney+ already has 94M. I don't think there's much growth in the future, but as @TwoMisfits said, now it's about keeping those subscribers

The 94 is worldwide for Disney+, I don’t know if they’re over 35m in North America but I don’t keep close watch of that stuff so could be more. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by cax16

[Legion Again]

30 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Netflix has 74M subscribers in US+Canada.  Disney+ already has 94M. I don't think there's much growth in the future, but as @TwoMisfits said, now it's about keeping those subscribers

The 95M is global for D+. Still well behind Netflix DOM.  
 

It’s probably going to grow a lot over the next 4 years, but that will be more on the back of cranking up the original content offerings then sending blockbusters to streaming unnecessarily.

[Fullbuster]

57 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I imagine Disney+ will reach a peak soon and no matter how many Marvel movies they release on streaming, people who want to subscribe have already done it.

 

Reach a peak? When they didn't even release in most of Asia and Eastern Europe?

 

Dream on, it's only the beginning, Disney is expected to reach 230-260 million subscribers by 2024, 300 millions by 2026.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Fullbuster

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Reach a peak? When they didn't even release in most of Asia and Eastern Europe?

 

Dream on, it's only the beginning, Disney is expected to reach 230-260 million subscribers by 2024, 300 millions by 2026.

I was talking about the US. Anyway, it seems they are still well behind Netflix, so there's still room for growth. The pandemic helped the streamers tho

Edited February 22, 2021 by Maggie

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, Avatree said:

Good news or bad news isn't going to change anything. If a studio wants to release a major film in 2021, the film WILL be released on streaming. Whether it's released March or December, it will be on streaming.

IMO there is no decision of "Going to theaters vs. going streaming/hybrid". It's "Release it streaming this year, or delay it another year for potential full theatrical release"

 

And do you think disney wants to release Black Widow this year, or delay it another year?

 

It will soon be 2 whole years, 24 months, of no MCU films. (Which feels crazy!)

I would imagine Disney wants to keep the MCU audience actively engaged. So I think they will release it sooner rather than later.

I've been adamant here that Widow will be released this year one way or the other, and that it will likely have a streaming component upon its initial release.  I'm not sure if you're arguing or agreeing with me here, but... I just wanted to clarify.  The studio may indeed have made the decision already...they're just waiting for the best time to announce it.  

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Macleod

[Maggie]

Yep, they need to decide soon and start the marketing if it's released in theaters. Although, i imagine it will make them look bad if they decide for theaters only. Some will say they are trying to kill people. Didn't Nolan face the same comments. People were mad he released Tenet during the pandemic.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Maggie

[TerwillikerInst]

My guess is that they wait and see how Raya does. If it does well, BW goes hybrid. If it does poorly, BW will be pushed back one more time to Shang Chi's date and will... still go hybrid. 

 

But unlike Mulan, they'll leave a gap (maybe a month or so) before it comes out in theatres, especially Chinese ones, and when it comes out on VOD in the US.

[Maggie]

6 minutes ago, TerwillikerInst said:

My guess is that they wait and see how Raya does. If it does well, BW goes hybrid. If it does poorly, BW will be pushed back one more time to Shang Chi's date and will... still go hybrid. 

 

But unlike Mulan, they'll leave a gap (maybe a month or so) before it comes out in theatres, especially Chinese ones, and when it comes out on VOD in the US.

I think it will go hybrid too whenever it releases this year. And not because of money/disney+ subscribers. It's because of a moral dilemma. They can't "force" people to go to the theater to see it. The Marvel fandom is insane and they'll go if they don't have other option. Disney will then be accused of "killing" people. Nah, it goes to streaming/theater hybrid to give people the choice

Edited February 23, 2021 by Maggie

[SpiderByte]

It sure seems like Disney's increasingly confident in their release dates (between Cruella and Luca kicking off promotion), which would likely come if they've decided on how to release them. Will be interesting to see which are Premiere Access or if some get the Soul treatment.

[SpiderByte]

Though now with promos saying Spider-Man 3 will be "Only in Theaters" (though it's Sony and coming out in December) that could indicate where Marvel's head is at

[Saul Goodman]