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Black Widow | November 6, 2020 | William Hurt as General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross will save us all!

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2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Since when has "worst case scenario" morphed into "the only realistic option"? And anything that isn't Ned on the bus in Infinity War suddenly becoming "unrealistic optimism"? 

 

At this point, I don't see why assuming BW would move to something like November would be any more or less realistic than it having to get pushed back a whole year or something. 

in less than a month the virus went from being, something to not worry about to this, who knows what will happen in 3 months ? noone, there is no contract that says, the virus will end now , this is what i dont understand, at this point, there are no realistic scenarios for something this far out, they only realistic scenario is that the virus will continue this month , and 90% next month, other than that we dont know

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disney will probably do  what  they did with mulan, which is delay the date, and not announce a new, and keep monitoring the situation

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One way is to release movies 1st which are ok if they under perfors. So release New Mutants as soon as market opens and then Artemis fowl and then movies that could do well 🙂

 

On this situation not sustainable. Even if its not complete lockdown it does not mean we will restart everything like nothing has happened. That wont happen. Look at china. It has been bad since beginning of the year and we dont know when things will be back to normal. 

 

What I expect is large gatherings would still be banned for a while but otherwise restrictions will be eased. Movie theaters could open selling fewer tickets but I dont think it can sustain a blockbuster for a while. 

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53 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

Disagreed. I think there's a finite limit to how long you can keep people locked up in their homes. Society can't shut down for too long. Two months from now, we'll be able to say whether all these shutdowns worked or not. If they worked, and covid numbers are way down, then everyone will want to pat themselves on the back and get back to work. If they don't work, and numbers stay high for two straight months, then people will say there's no point, and we might as well get on with business as usual as much as it's possible anymore.

 

We'll get a preview in a few weeks when China fully opens everything up again.

 

There are other issues as well. For example, how many businesses in the service industry can survive a shutdown that lasts 3 weeks? 2 months? 6 months? The casinos in Vegas are already asking for bailout money, and they have only seen revenue declines for a pretty brief time. Major sports teams we know can survive a long time without income... we had a whole NHL season wiped out due to a labor dispute (2005). How long can movie theaters stay in business while shuttered?

 

There will definitely be a push to open things back up, likely prematurely. Economic pressure will do that. The question is, will the pressure be enough or will the public's health win out if it doesn't look like it is safe? In a week, Wuhan will have been completely locked down for two solid months. So based on that alone we're looking at end of May / early June for movie theaters resuming regular operations, at the earliest. As you said, we'll see from China whether that makes a difference in containment. I fully expect the virus to spread like wildfire again once China loosens restrictions. It is highly contagious.

 

If you listen to what the experts are saying, the containment period is 3-6 or 7 months to flatten the curve, and even then this will take more than a year to fully play out. COVID-19 will likely still be around and killing people going into 2022

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

There are other issues as well. For example, how many businesses in the service industry can survive a shutdown that lasts 3 weeks? 2 months? 6 months? The casinos in Vegas are already asking for bailout money, and they have only seen revenue declines for a pretty brief time. Major sports teams we know can survive a long time without income... we had a whole NHL season wiped out due to a labor dispute (2005). How long can movie theaters stay in business while shuttered?

 

There will definitely be a push to open things back up, likely prematurely. Economic pressure will do that. The question is, will the pressure be enough or will the public's health win out if it doesn't look like it is safe? In a week, Wuhan will have been completely locked down for two solid months. So based on that alone we're looking at end of May / early June for movie theaters resuming regular operations, at the earliest. As you said, we'll see from China whether that makes a difference in containment. I fully expect the virus to spread like wildfire again once China loosens restrictions. It is highly contagious.

 

If you listen to what the experts are saying, the containment period is 3-6 or 7 months to flatten the curve, and even then this will take more than a year to fully play out. COVID-19 will likely still be around and killing people going into 2022

 nations cant work like that or sustain that way of work for 7 months, then well ,these decisions are hard to make, even if the virus is like that by nov, the countries, wont be able to hold the measures that they have right now

Edited by john2000

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

COVID-19 will likely still be around and killing people going into 2022

I absolutely agree but here's the thing, you know what other virus has stuck around after a pandemic and still kills over half a million worldwide every year? The flu. 

 

At a certain point, people will just adjust, this will all become normal. If you told someone in 1918 at the height of the Spanish flu epidemic that in a century not only is the flu still prevalent but it kills millions of people every few years even with a vaccine, they'd think it was the end times. 

 

Unless the symptoms get worse or the rate of death/infection goes up, people will cope. They'll grow bored of a life in quarantine and want to go out again. To mingle with other people is one of the most basic human instincts. 

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4 hours ago, TerwillikerInst said:

I absolutely agree but here's the thing, you know what other virus has stuck around after a pandemic and still kills over half a million worldwide every year? The flu. 

 

At a certain point, people will just adjust, this will all become normal. If you told someone in 1918 at the height of the Spanish flu epidemic that in a century not only is the flu still prevalent but it kills millions of people every few years even with a vaccine, they'd think it was the end times. 

 

Unless the symptoms get worse or the rate of death/infection goes up, people will cope. They'll grow bored of a life in quarantine and want to go out again. To mingle with other people is one of the most basic human instincts. 

I think we need vaccination for that to happen. Because there are so many vulnerable who could require hospitalization and if we just decide to live with it and try to hope we build herd immunity(hmmmmm) it would be a disaster. 

 

Biggest issues with this on Asymptomatic transmission. That makes it very dangerous. So I dont see how can live with it as things stand. Can italy decide to adjust ignoring the current situation !!!!

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11 hours ago, TerwillikerInst said:

I absolutely agree but here's the thing, you know what other virus has stuck around after a pandemic and still kills over half a million worldwide every year? The flu. 

 

At a certain point, people will just adjust, this will all become normal. If you told someone in 1918 at the height of the Spanish flu epidemic that in a century not only is the flu still prevalent but it kills millions of people every few years even with a vaccine, they'd think it was the end times. 

 

Unless the symptoms get worse or the rate of death/infection goes up, people will cope. They'll grow bored of a life in quarantine and want to go out again. To mingle with other people is one of the most basic human instincts. 

 

Without vaccines and without a population that has already built up some immunity, the flu would be as dangerous today as COVID-19 is. The only reason why life can carry on normally with flu is that not everyone gets sick simultaneously. The health care system doesn't get completely overwhelmed.

 

That's the key difference. If the social distancing restrictions are lifted, such a high percentage of the population will contract COVID-19 at once that the sheer numbers will mean many require critical care. This is where flattening the curve comes in. We know 70% of the populace will get sick. It just has to happen over a year or more, instead of a month or two. The survival rates in those scenarios is very different.

 

It'll be hard, but we'll have to find a way. Movie theaters will remain closed for quite a long time, and if they don't then it is likely that death rates will skyrocket.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

Without vaccines and without a population that has already built up some immunity, the flu would be as dangerous today as COVID-19 is. The only reason why life can carry on normally with flu is that not everyone gets sick simultaneously. The health care system doesn't get completely overwhelmed.

 

That's the key difference. If the social distancing restrictions are lifted, such a high percentage of the population will contract COVID-19 at once that the sheer numbers will mean many require critical care. This is where flattening the curve comes in. We know 70% of the populace will get sick. It just has to happen over a year or more, instead of a month or two. The survival rates in those scenarios is very different.

 

It'll be hard, but we'll have to find a way. Movie theaters will remain closed for quite a long time, and if they don't then it is likely that death rates will skyrocket.

again the problem is that this solution has an expire date , there is no way a country or its cizitens to be able to work functionally , for 10 months like this, they just cant

Edited by john2000
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Don't know why Marvel hasn't delayed this yet. Even the most optimisitc predictions show that the coronavirus pandemic won't be cleared by May.

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Don't know why Marvel hasn't delayed this yet. Even the most optimisitc predictions show that the coronavirus pandemic won't be cleared by May.

they will delay it we all know that either way

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Yeah, BW is moving. they most likely don't want to announce so many delays and cancellations back to back but it's a done deal that it won't stay where it is. They may be figuring out whether to announce new date or just delay indefinitely and wait for opportunity.

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Posted (edited)

I could see Disney announcing a new slate of release dates for their movies very soon

Edited by JGAR4LIFE
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, john2000 said:

again the problem is that this solution has an expire date , there is no way a country or its cizitens to be able to work functionally , for 10 months like this, they just cant

 

That's the reality. Life will have to change and find a way to move forward differently. Maybe that means banks are bailed out and everyone is allowed to skip payments on things like the rent for a few months. We don't know what the answers will be, all we know is the problem we're facing.

 

Again, this is a very unique situation. There hasn't been a global pandemic of this scope in a century. Very few of us alive today lived through the last one, and those who did surely can't remember it.

 

Movie theaters are a luxury. It is absolutely possible things like that and professional sports are completely shut down for all of 2020. Think about the sacrifices that were made during times of war, or during the Great Depression. Can you imagine making "soup" out of hot water and ketchup? People did it. It's called hobo soup.

Edited by doublejack

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I don't think Disney will announce new dates anytime soon.  Nobody knows exactly how long this epidemic will last so saying "we're pushing this back to July" would be a mistake.  

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45 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

That's the reality. Life will have to change and find a way to move forward differently. Maybe that means banks are bailed out and everyone is allowed to skip payments on things like the rent for a few months. We don't know what the answers will be, all we know is the problem we're facing.

 

Again, this is a very unique situation. There hasn't been a global pandemic of this scope in a century. Very few of us alive today lived through the last one, and those who did surely can't remember it.

 

Movie theaters are a luxury. It is absolutely possible things like that and professional sports are completely shut down for all of 2020. Think about the sacrifices that were made during times of war, or during the Great Depression. Can you imagine making "soup" out of hot water and ketchup? People did it. It's called hobo soup.

it seems that you dont understand my point at all, a country cant economical speaking survive like this when everything is close, its not at all as simple as you are making out to be, you dont want to fight a problem , with creating another 3 problems that can be as big, at the same time if you think that people can live like this for 6 months, or that countries can afforc, then sorry, but you are in for a rude awakening, again i think that measures will still be in effect, but that aggressively, i very much doubt so

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16 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I don't think Disney will announce new dates anytime soon.  Nobody knows exactly how long this epidemic will last so saying "we're pushing this back to July" would be a mistake.  

Bingo. The thing we’ll start to see done to movies is like AQP2 and Mulan — announce they’re gone from he old date, but don’t announce a new date at all until having more info.

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