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Black Widow | November 6, 2020 | William Hurt as General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross will save us all!

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26 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Yeah, that was more to point out that the average performance of solos since TA has actually been really strong than a super serious considered guess. And interestingly the median OS performance of 58.5th place would probably be better than 580M, since sum of median ranks is not necessarily equal to median rank of sums — it’s just  a hassle to look up so I didn’t bother.

Oh, I didn't realize that you were doing an exact median. In that case yeah.

13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

add 5 milion more , and we are good

If it gets that close, Disney will get it over.

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2 hours ago, aladdino said:

LOL. maybe if you were born in 2000 or later

People born after 2000 are mainly the general audience. They’re the ones going to the movie theaters, old timers are starting to back away.

 

Not saying Black Widow is a bigger iconic character than Wonder Woman, just that now in the 21st century, she has skyrocketed in popularity thanks to the Avengers and the MCU. And compared to Wonder Woman now, yes she’s arguably more popular.

Edited by JGAR4LIFE

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43 minutes ago, Menor said:

Oh, I didn't realize that you were doing an exact median. In that case yeah.

If it gets that close, Disney will get it over.

After some further thought, I actually feel geometric mean is likely better to use for ranks (although applying any kind of mean to ordinal data is not entirely kosher :ph34r:). For instance if median of 2nd, 16th, 16th is just 16th place, but geometric mean is 8th place. Median of 2,2,16 is 2nd place, but geo mean 4th place.    
 

Geometric mean peak rank of post TA solos is:  

OW 22.7th*

DOM 42.6th

OS 46.2nd

WW 38.8th

 

For BW that would be about: 

OW 151M

DOM 380M

OS 655M

WW 1.03B

 

I’m not actually expecting it to hit that OW, but it’s not *super* outlandish if the marketing clicks.

 

 

* For this and Median I’m using an estimated equivalent 3 day of 136M for FFH. 

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21 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

OW 151M

DOM 380M

OS 655M

WW 1.03B


If people are expecting those type of numbers, they're going to be disappointed. I don't think BW is nearly as popular as some make her out to be, without the other Avengers around. If OW is over $110m I'll be surprised.  I'd also be surprised at a DOM over $300m.

Now, all of this goes out the window if we find out Captain America is in it. 

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34 minutes ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

People born after 2000 are mainly the general audience. They’re the ones going to the movie theaters, old timers are starting to back away.

 

Not saying Black Widow is a bigger iconic character than Wonder Woman, just that now in the 21st century, she has skyrocketed in popularity thanks to the Avengers and the MCU. And compared to Wonder Woman now, yes she’s arguably more popular.

How do you know she has skyrocketed in popularity?

 

What makes you think she has more popularity than any other Avengers character that has no solo movie.

 

Antman hasn't shown any great potential despite having 2 solo movies and being instrumental in Avengers and Endgame.

 

Not saying your wrong, just wondering where you are getting your metrics from?

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Does Scarjo has a legitimate shot at the oscah thing this year with her Telenovela/Lifetime movie about divorce ?

Edited by The Futurist

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24 minutes ago, AndyK said:

How do you know she has skyrocketed in popularity?

 

What makes you think she has more popularity than any other Avengers character that has no solo movie.

 

Antman hasn't shown any great potential despite having 2 solo movies and being instrumental in Avengers and Endgame.

 

Not saying your wrong, just wondering where you are getting your metrics from?

https://morningconsult.com/2019/04/23/black-widow-nick-fury-top-list-marvel-characters-public-wants-see-lead-roles/


Black Widow is much more integral to the Avengers than Ant-Man, who was mainly instrumental in Endgame, which came after both of his movies. 
 

Black Widow will also have a diversity pull, the third female heroine to get a film. She‘s a very important figure that has been in the MCU since phase 1, so her movie won’t even have to attract new viewers. The desire to see a movie about her could also fuel more hype for this movie.

Edited by JGAR4LIFE

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3 hours ago, Alli said:

If Captain Marvel can make 1B, i see no reason why BW can't make it too.

Captain Marvel was tease at the end of IW and everyone assumed that the events of her film would play a big part in Endgame.

 

Captain Marvel is one of Marvel’s prominent female characters and one of t(e most popular from the comics....BW not so much.

 

Fans have been asking for years for both ladies to get their movie but CM benefited from being the first female led film in the MCU.

 

 

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1 hour ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

People born after 2000 are mainly the general audience. They’re the ones going to the movie theaters, old timers are starting to back away.

 

Not saying Black Widow is a bigger iconic character than Wonder Woman, just that now in the 21st century, she has skyrocketed in popularity thanks to the Avengers and the MCU. And compared to Wonder Woman now, yes she’s arguably more popular.

You think most of the movie going audience is 19 and below? Bless your heart. 

 

I don’t see little girls year after year dressing up as Black Widow for Halloween. However, Wonder Woman is perennially among the top outfits for girls. She is a common thread for mothers and daughters. I can remember wearing my WW outfit. Now, I see my nieces wearing the outfit. 

 

Now, that is not to say that Black

Widow will not be a great movie and maybe the biggest of the summer. I would never under-estimate Marvel and its fanbase, marketing, etc. A successful movie does not make a character more iconic. If that were the case, then the Black Panther would be the greatest and most iconic super hero, as his movie is the highest grossing solo super-hero movie of all time.

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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Ah, BOM doesn’t have it anymore, but the numbers does: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/

 

So looks like 615ish by that metric, would be like 995 just adding OS and DOM. Feels reasonable enough.

 

 

I think you meant to say "616ish".

 

2 hours ago, Hatebox said:

At this point I'd see any MCU film with a known character getting less than a billion as an underperformance. 

 

 

Just last year, Ant-Man and the Wasp made 75 OW, 216 dom, and a total of 623 ww.

 

That said, Black Widow should do a bit more, because looking at the schedule, I don't see any significant movies coming out in April, and the most significant May competition comes out a full 3 weeks after BW, Fast & Furious 9. Though that franchise could possibly be on a downward slope.

 

 

As always though, let's at least wait and watch a trailer to get an idea of what a movie and its marketing are going to be like before jumping to too many conclusions about the relative box office prospects of BW, F&F9, and WW84.

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35 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:


If people are expecting those type of numbers, they're going to be disappointed. I don't think BW is nearly as popular as some make her out to be, without the other Avengers around. If OW is over $110m I'll be surprised.  I'd also be surprised at a DOM over $300m.

Now, all of this goes out the window if we find out Captain America is in it. 

Again, to be clear, those are not predictions from me. That’s just what the average performance of Phase 2 and 3 solo movies would  translate to in May 2020. There’s plenty of room to argue that Black Widow will do a bit less than average for MCU solos, which have been a pretty crazy bunch overall.

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I think a lot of people are underestimating the fan hunger. Character legacy, diversity pull, etc. aside, this should do nicely for simply being the first MCU film in 10 months.

 

I for one was never super invested in the idea (although I do think it could end up a great movie), but I can’t wait just because I’m ready for more Marvel.

Edited by nick64
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FWIW if you remove BP and IM3 it would be like:

OW 31.5th -> 134M 

DOM 58.6th-> 340M 

OS 56.7th-> 625M 

WW 52nd-> 961M   
 

 

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5 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

 

She was right about 007.

They’re all too close to each other imo. One should be pushed back to next week to debut with Jumanji and another should be pushed back to debut the week of TROS release to debut with it. 

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17 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

They’re all too close to each other imo. One should be pushed back to next week to debut with Jumanji and another should be pushed back to debut the week of TROS release to debut with it. 

Release them all on the same day for kicks 😈

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11 hours ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

https://morningconsult.com/2019/04/23/black-widow-nick-fury-top-list-marvel-characters-public-wants-see-lead-roles/


Black Widow is much more integral to the Avengers than Ant-Man, who was mainly instrumental in Endgame, which came after both of his movies. 
 

Black Widow will also have a diversity pull, the third female heroine to get a film. She‘s a very important figure that has been in the MCU since phase 1, so her movie won’t even have to attract new viewers. The desire to see a movie about her could also fuel more hype for this movie.

49% would watch a Drax movie ?

 

Would take that list with a pinch of salt.....however this is interesting because of the sample size.

 

 

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