BOT User Tracking 4/22-24 Elvis & Nixon, Huntsman: Winter's War

[Wrath]

 

14 hours ago, kowhite said:

The Huntsman: Bombs Away

 

I mean, 22m?  Who cares, it's gonna be a disaster.

 

I care! In part *because* its going to be a disaster! Makes it all the more entertaining.

 

Huntsman - 18.9M

 

[Wrath]

Elvis & Nixon is in fewer theaters than Hologram for the King, whatever that is, so its safe to say its not opening wide and is thus stricken from our prediction roster. Verily and forsooth. That leaves us with one movie. Yippee. Oh well, next week should make up for it.

 

Its funny. Typing the predicts up, it felt like everyone was predicting 21-22M, but our Ratio of 22.22% is much higher than the ones we had for previous movies we expected to open at about the same level (Ratio and expected OW total are very much inversely related until you get to about $140-150M at which point it goes out the window). 

 

Some examples (predict, ratio):

 

Barbershop - 19.8M/18.04%

The Boss - 22.2M/23.16%

Allegiant - 30.7M/14.03%

10 Cloverfield - 24.7M/14.87% (which I just saw the other day, was fun)

 

Felt like we were going to end up with a super-tight prediction range, but didn't end up happening that way. Perhaps because of some high early predicts.

 

Overall, the various sites' predicts for Huntsman are pretty tightly grouped (22M - 26.3M), and while we're at the lower-end of that range (only higher than BO.com) we're very much in the same range as everyone else.

 

So, as usual, I totaled all 22 predicts (Civil War's approach, as the harbinger of the summer movie season, is bringing more predictors to the yard than Kelis's milkshake) and here are the results:

 

Huntsman

Mean: 23.4M

Median: 22M

StnDev: 5.21M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.22%

High: 40M

Low: 17M

 

BO.com 22M 

Deadline 25M

MovieWeb 26.3M

ShowBuzzDaily 24M

Variety 25M

Edited April 22, 2016 by Wrath

[Wrath]

Kind of a quiet week, obviously, though we did fine.

 

Huntsman: Winter's War

Prediction: 23.4M +/- 5.21M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 19.5M (off by 3.9M, so 0.76 stndev)

Not bad and second best overall behind BO.com's 22M. Amusingly, we need to wait for more details on closest predict, as right now, at 19.45M, cannastop and I are exactly tied, both $550K off, but in different directions. If it comes in at $19,450,001, then cannastop is closest, and at $19,449,999, then I'm closest. Since its rounding up to 19.5 instead of down to 19.4, I'm guessing cannastop will end up the winner (I'll come back and edit this when the details come in) but I'm holding out hope until then.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Wrath

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Wrath said:

Kind of a quiet week, obviously, though we did fine.

 

Huntsman: Winter's War

Prediction: 23.4M +/- 5.21M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 19.5M (off by 19.5M, so 3.9 stndev)

Not bad and second best overall behind BO.com's 22M. Amusingly, we need to wait for more details on closest predict, as right now, at 19.45M, cannastop and I are exactly tied, both $550K off, but in different directions. If it comes in at $19,450,001, then cannastop is closest, and at $19,449,999, then I'm closest. Since its rounding up to 19.5 instead of down to 19.4, I'm guessing cannastop will end up the winner (I'll come back and edit this when the details come in) but I'm holding out hope until then.

Actuals are 19.45

 

nvm 

Edited April 25, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[Wrath]

Woot. Actual came in at 19.445, so looks like I get the closest predict on Huntsman after all.

[department store basement]

10 hours ago, Wrath said:

Actual: 19.5M (off by 19.5M, so 3.9 stndev)

 

I think this is a mistake

[Wrath]

11 hours ago, department store basement said:

 

I think this is a mistake

Hey, just look at the RT% and the bad reviews! I think its possible Huntsman earned $0 over the weekend.

 

Oh, wait, someone actually saw it, didn't they? Yeah, its probably wrong. I'll fix it.

 

Edit - Fixed! Thanks! It was off by 3.9M which is 0.76 standard deviations.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Wrath