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Billion Dollar Movies of 2016

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We just went through 2015, with its amazing 5 billion dollar movies - a new record.

 

I thought, hey, that one is gonna stick for a while.

 

But then ....

 

Zootopia gets oh so close.

The Jungle Book has a very strong chance.

Captain America: Civil War will zoom past 1 billion with absolute ease.

 

And what about:

Finding Dory

Independence Day: Resurgence

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

Are we looking at another record-setting year here?

What do you guys think?

 

 

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I have these 4 as (nearly) locked:

Civil War

Finding Dory

Independence Day 2

Rogue One

 

Jungle Book could reach it but I think it will fail by a few millions. Same applies to Zootopia.

 

Outsiders? Suicide Squad (personal bet), Alice 2 (it can repeat what AiW did or to be a complete failure. I see more probable the second choice), Fantastic Beasts (I have it at 800s, but who knows), Moana (??) and Ice Age 5 (the 2 previous films average 700m OS).

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Rogue One, Civil War and Finding Dory are guaranteed to reach the number.

I think there is a significant chance that at least one of Zootopia and TJB will reach $1B (TJB is more likely to do that imo).

And at least one of ID2 and FB should make it there.

It's unlikely all four of the above will make it but they all have significant chances.

 

No chance that Suicide Squad, Alice 2 or Ice Age will make it.

Moana is a complete wildcard. Could be another Frozen or another Tangled.

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18 hours ago, Quigley said:

Rogue One, Civil War and Finding Dory are guaranteed to reach the number.

I think there is a significant chance that at least one of Zootopia and TJB will reach $1B (TJB is more likely to do that imo).

And at least one of ID2 and FB should make it there.

It's unlikely all four of the above will make it but they all have significant chances.

 

No chance that Suicide Squad, Alice 2 or Ice Age will make it.

Moana is a complete wildcard. Could be another Frozen or another Tangled.

 

I almost completely agree with your assessment.

 

One of Zootopia/TJB will make it.

CW absolutely, Dory and RO most likely.

But not for ID2 (domestic long range forecast is not that high, and I don't think it will go crazy overseas).

FB is not yet strong enough for a billion.

 

So, four. And maaaaaaybe five, but that's a big maybe.

2015's records is still safe.

For now.

Until 2017 ... when we will meet SW8, Fast 8, Justice League, new Spidey, new Transformers, new Pirates ...

 

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3 hours ago, newbie BO buff said:

 

I almost completely agree with your assessment.

 

One of Zootopia/TJB will make it.

CW absolutely, Dory and RO most likely.

But not for ID2 (domestic long range forecast is not that high, and I don't think it will go crazy overseas).

FB is not yet strong enough for a billion.

 

So, four. And maaaaaaybe five, but that's a big maybe.

2015's records is still safe.

For now.

Until 2017 ... when we will meet SW8, Fast 8, Justice League, new Spidey, new Transformers, new Pirates ...

 

and DM3 in 2017 too!

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First year with two $1 billion animated films as well with an outside chance of 3 (Moana: First princess movie in 3 years aka since Frozen). Last year got fairly close with Minions ($1.16B) and Inside Out ($0.86B), and 2013 got even closer with Frozen ($1.28B) and Despicable Me 2 ($0.97B)

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On 5/1/2016 at 5:29 PM, newbie BO buff said:

 

One of Zootopia/TJB will make it.

CW absolutely, Dory and RO most likely.

But not for ID2 (domestic long range forecast is not that high, and I don't think it will go crazy overseas).

FB is not yet strong enough for a billion.

 

 

 

CW and Zoo has safely landed.

TJB will miss it by 10-15 mil I think. Can Korea and Japan carry it?

Dory still looking good, if OS not really crazy, domestic will more than make up for it. 

RO still seems to be a safe bet.

 

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IMO,

 

Now that we already have Civil War and Zootopia in the club,

 

Personally, I am hoping that The Jungle Book will also be able to earn $1 billion, heard that it has rather high chances now.

 

Rouge One and Finding Dory should cross that with ease.

 

Resurgence is possible but I am not sure about that, and then for Moana we will only know when it opens I guess.

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I would not say it so early that both Jungle Book and Dory will not reach the billion. Disney live action films have been quite big in Japan and there is no reason to think otherwise for TJB. And concerning Dory, it still has to open in UK, Germany and Italy. Nemo did 140 million in those markets. Let's wait.

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3 hours ago, peludo said:

I would not say it so early that both Jungle Book and Dory will not reach the billion. Disney live action films have been quite big in Japan and there is no reason to think otherwise for TJB. And concerning Dory, it still has to open in UK, Germany and Italy. Nemo did 140 million in those markets. Let's wait.

It's going to be have to be at least ¥6.4 billion big. That's no guarantee for The Jungle Book.

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3 hours ago, peludo said:

I would not say it so early that both Jungle Book and Dory will not reach the billion. Disney live action films have been quite big in Japan and there is no reason to think otherwise for TJB. And concerning Dory, it still has to open in UK, Germany and Italy. Nemo did 140 million in those markets. Let's wait.

The trend around the world seems to be that Finding Dory does less in foreign markets than Finding Nemo did. $140m from those three markets is no cakewalk.

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Done:

Civil War ($1.16B)

Zootopia ($1.025B)

 

Very likely:

Finding Dory (99% probability, $1.05B to $1.1B)*

Rogue One (95% probability, $1.3B to $1.6B)**

 

Maybe:

Jungle Book (40% probability, $980m more likely)*

Moana (50% probability, $900m more likely)**

 

Long shot:

Fantastic beasts (25% probability $800m to $850m more likely)**

Pets (5%, needs to break out in China like Zoo otherwise $800m to $900m)*

Suicide Squad (1%, is there any reason why this should beat BvS OS? I'm thinking $750m or so)**

* projection

** prediction

 

I don't see any non-Disney movie getting there. FB has the best shot but Potter's traditionally strongest markets (Japan & The UK) are looking shaky. Every Potter movie decreased from the previous one both in admissions and gross (in local currency) with the exception of the last one for obvious reasons. This one being a spinoff and coming five years after the last one might have an even steeper drop off. And then you have the ER. UK will eat this up but obiously the ER will limit its gross as well. Pets needs $150m+ in China to get there. Only Zoo and KFP have ever done that much (among animated movies).

Edited by Agafin
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1 hour ago, cannastop said:

The trend around the world seems to be that Finding Dory does less in foreign markets than Finding Nemo did. $140m from those three markets is no cakewalk.

There's this sudden depressing box office slump all over the world, China being the most evident (and have numbers to back that up).

I am not belittling Dory and the others, I am actually a bit sad.

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3 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said:

There's this sudden depressing box office slump all over the world, China being the most evident (and have numbers to back that up).

I am not belittling Dory and the others, I am actually a bit sad.

 

What do you mean?

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