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newbie BO buff

Billion Dollar Movies of 2016

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I don't moviegoing in the world is declining. I think the exchange rate isn't helping a lot of movies who could have done way more.

But I don't think moviegoing is becoming less appealing as an activity or a form of entertainment. 

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14 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said:

There's this sudden depressing box office slump all over the world, China being the most evident (and have numbers to back that up).

I am not belittling Dory and the others, I am actually a bit sad.

It's at least partly due to the Brexit. The pound and the euro aren't as valuable as they used to be.

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Let's wait till Dory opens in the UK before we count it out. As long as does at least $60 million everything will be fine. 

 

Other films with billion dollars potential from the most chance to least.

Rogue One

Suicide Squad (I can see this doing well in both here and overseas to make that mark but barely)

Moana

Jungle Book

Fantastic Beasts and where to find them

Edited by YourMother
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The Box office is actually really strong this year, it's just that way too many movies from the same "genre" are released so there's obviously some fatigue and cannibalization. Last year, "only" about $2.5B WW was spent on CBM (AoU, Ant-Man, Kingsman, FF4). This year, we're already at $3.5B+ (BvS, CW, Deadpool, X-men, TMNT) with Suicide squad and Strange still to come. Similarly, only $3.8B was spent on animated movies. This year, we're already at $4.1B (KFP, Zoo, JB, AB, Dory, Pets, Ice Age)  and that's with Pets and Ice Age just getting started, Dory still having a lot left in the tank and of course, Moana, Trolls, Storks, Sausage Party, and Sting still to come (damn, there's a lot of animated movies this year). The same applies to horror (though, this one has arguably managed to fend off the "fatigue" it seems).

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2 hours ago, cannastop said:

It's going to be have to be at least ¥6.4 billion big. That's no guarantee for The Jungle Book.

I have not said it is guaranteed to reach it. I said that live action films have been big lately in Japan. The only absolute sentence has been from @newbie BO buffsaying it will definitely not hit it.

 

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

The trend around the world seems to be that Finding Dory does less in foreign markets than Finding Nemo did. $140m from those three markets is no cakewalk.

Again, I have not said that Dory will make 140 in those 3 markets. Just the reference of what Nemo did there and the fact that without being released there we still do not know what will happen. Just be patient. People tend to overreact without having every element.

 

The sentences I was answering are "Now I think TJB will definitely not hit 1 billion." and "And Dory will miss it by a hair.". Can you really say it is LOCKED that TJB and Dory will miss the billion figure? I am not saying they will, but I do not think it is so clear. Both films have chances for sure.

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53 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's at least partly due to the Brexit. The pound and the euro aren't as valuable as they used to be.

This is not the first time I read this. That is wrong. Euro has exactly the same value than one year ago and the same value than before Brexit.

 

And, sincerely, I do not think that Pound has been so damaged because of it. It has lost about a 10% of value relative to before Brexit. And even if you think that is a big loss, you look in this way: if a film grosses 50 million Pounds in UK, that means 5-6 million dollars lower. I do not think that is dramatic for 500-600 million OS grossers. There have been currencies way more hit during previous years like Russian Ruble or Brazilian Real.

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I don't think Brexit alone is likely to hurt Dory's OS gross by more than about 3%. I did this analysis about a month ago, but currencies (Pound/Euro) haven't continue to fall since then:

Also, I'm certain that Dory will hit $1B worldwide, you can quote me if it doesn't. Just posted this in the FD thread, seems unnecessary to retype it:

43 minutes ago, Jason said:

Not going to rehash the analyses that have been done so far (but I've included some of them below). But essentially even the most conservative territory-by-territory estimates reach a total of $1 billion. While it's quite possible for Dory to underperform a conservative estimate in some of its remaining markets, it will also probably outperform conservative estimates in other markets. Overall, it becomes very unlikely for the final total to drop below the total predicted using conservative estimates.

 

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