Jump to content
Derby Summer League: Signups due by 4/22/19 Read more... ×

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

Sign in to follow this  
AndyLL

Captain, while a great many people see you as a hero, there are some who prefer the word Derby. | Week 19

Recommended Posts

17 hours ago, JMorphin said:

looks like a good score would be breaking 80.  Several movies in the top 10 dropped close to 70%, very harsh!  Awaiting Matrix4You's projections :)

Scores got even worse by a few points with studio estimates. I've never seen this before. MD is above all picks. CA3, Keanu, zoo, ratchet and BvS are below everyone. The average score will be in the 60s and just 2 or 3 above 80.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, cannastop said:

I just hope I'm not in last place.

Nope. Johnny brain farted  again. He was the one that put .01 in a couple of picks.  You have him beat and a few others I'm sure

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Nope. Johnny brain farted  again. He was the one that put .01 in a couple of picks.  You have him beat and a few others I'm sure

Well, I wouldn't consider it a success to beat someone who made a typo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well, I wouldn't consider it a success to beat someone who made a typo.

Part of any competition includes proper preparation, readiness and execution. Remembering to bring  tap shoes to a dance competition is as important as knowing how to tap. Someone forgets to finish picks or typos or has computer problems is part of the contest.  I'm sure you'll you'll have quite a few more beat regardless

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DERBY UPDATE:   (ERROR ALERT) – I might be missing something here, the average seems low.    71.345 average, 58 players. Welcome to:  jrKan, coolEric258, Frankos72, jesserifkin, and Ridhoazka18.  MarcusG, M37, MCkillswitch123, BK007, DAR, Gamb1993, glassfairy, Olive, Dexter of Suburbia, and AABattery returned.  BIG, BIG turnout.  We missed out with Tower this week.  I put the top 10 in like this: 

Civil War – 179

Jungle Book – 25

Huntsman – 3.9

Keanu – 3.2

Mother’s Day – 11.25

Barbershop – 2.75

Zootopia – 3.1

Ratchet and Clank – 1.55

The Boss – 1.8

Batman V Superman – 1.08

 

Not sure what happened this weekend with the holdovers.  The Friday numbers were very low.  Comparing  the weeks for  The Avengers(2012),  Age of Ultron,  and The Force Awakens, their respective holdovers had stronger Friday numbers and per screen averages than what took place this week.  Following those patterns should have given better numbers for holdovers this week going down through the top 20.  I really do not think spillover business was the reason why the three comparison weeks had decent holdovers.  I think theaters have it down to a science to get as many show times as possible opening week for a mega tent pole so whoever wants to see it, can see it.  My theory would be for this weekend, lack of overall interest for the rest of the movies up and down (besides Jungle book and Mothers Day).  When the Force Awakens came out, Krampus and Mockingjay held strong on Friday.  When Ultron came out, a lot of the top 20 held strong on Friday compared to the previous Friday. 

Here is a look at the possible top 20 this week with my rearranged estimates.

No Prisoners

85.419

nelmsey

82.769

AndyLL

82.415

Jmorphin

81.803

moviecriticguy

81.590

MarcusG

81.544

JJ-8

81.455

M37

81.405

Bates

79.654

TalismanRing

78.287

BK007

77.510

Ridhoazka18

76.976

Rolling Thunder

76.859

DAR

76.664

8wombi7

76.508

MCKIllswitch123

75.990

Fanboy

75.934

chasmmi

75.920

BoxofficeZ

75.511

PanaMovie

75.503

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This weekend didn't follow any of the recent historical trajectories.  Films dropped hard on Thursday due to CA previews and yet the Friday increases were comparatively weak and the IMs were not fantastic outside of TJB and Mother's Day.  This was a total disaster week and really no way to see it coming beforehand.  Disney also didn't manipulate either TJB or Zootopia - presumably so CA so could hold onto every dollar in light of a solid but non record-setting performance.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

This weekend didn't follow any of the recent historical trajectories.  Films dropped hard on Thursday due to CA previews and yet the Friday increases were comparatively weak and the IMs were not fantastic outside of TJB and Mother's Day.  This was a total disaster week and really no way to see it coming beforehand.  Disney also didn't manipulate either TJB or Zootopia - presumably so CA so could hold onto every dollar in light of a solid but non record-setting performance.

I've said this ad nauseum, but I think they overestimated Zootopia's Sunday drop so that they'd be extra sure that it passed BvS.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After 41 years of tracking BO...

After 15 years of playing the derby....

A blind squirrel finally finds a nut

Blind-Squirrel-Finds-a-Nut-small.jpg

That Ray.

 

Hopefully in the not too distant future I can be a broken clock!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

This weekend didn't follow any of the recent historical trajectories.  Films dropped hard on Thursday due to CA previews and yet the Friday increases were comparatively weak and the IMs were not fantastic outside of TJB and Mother's Day.  This was a total disaster week and really no way to see it coming beforehand.  Disney also didn't manipulate either TJB or Zootopia - presumably so CA so could hold onto every dollar in light of a solid but non record-setting performance.

I saw it coming

But then again I'm blind.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I saw it coming

But then again I'm blind.

 

I'll stop short of spraying myself with Windex next weekend, but I do have a handy blindfold.  I'll dust it off and give it a shot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I'll stop short of spraying myself with Windex next weekend, but I do have a handy blindfold.  I'll dust it off and give it a shot.

Next weekend is going to screw with players again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Next weekend is going to screw with players again

Perfect opportunity for me to be #1.

 

:ph34r:

 

Edited by cannastop
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, cannastop said:

I've said this ad nauseum, but I think they overestimated Zootopia's Sunday drop so that they'd be extra sure that it passed BvS.

 

lol, yes, because they care whether they passed BvS on Sunday or literally any day after.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

After 41 years of tracking BO...

After 15 years of playing the derby....

A blind squirrel finally finds a nut

Blind-Squirrel-Finds-a-Nut-small.jpg

That Ray.

 

Hopefully in the not too distant future I can be a broken clock!

 

You're assuming actuals don't drop you down to 2nd.... :ph34r:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@TalismanRing  I'm getting old but I made it just in time. Oh those younger days with sonnyarticle-0-18C5173600000578-97_634x461.jp

Edited by No Prisoners
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, AndyLL said:

 

You're assuming actuals don't drop you down to 2nd.... :ph34r:

 those scores tightened up. Had a 5 pt lead with studio estimates.  3 with rth and matrix update and finished just 1.5 ahead.

Thang jesus this mofo didn't show up

steve-harvey-miss-universe-card.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL way to go No Prisoners... I shall ignore my horrible showing this week *sigh*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

 those scores tightened up. Had a 5 pt lead with studio estimates.  3 with rth and matrix update and finished just 1.5 ahead.

Thang jesus this mofo didn't show up

 

 

Of course I didn't post that until I had already run the score calcs. It did tighten up quite a bit:

 

1 No Prisoners 84.915% 93.379% 83.975% 13.152% 58 10
2 nelmsey 83.126% 85.927% 82.814% 11.362% 57 10
3 M37 82.398% 78.698% 82.809% 10.635% 56 10
4 moviecriticguy 82.127% 90.588% 81.187% 10.364% 55 10
5 JMorphin 81.768% 88.355% 81.036% 10.004% 54 10
6 AndyLL 81.255% 87.797% 80.528% 9.492% 53 10
7 MarcusG 81.077% 79.982% 81.199% 9.314% 52 10
8 JJ-8 79.721% 79.742% 79.719% 7.958% 51 10
9 Bates 79.621% 88.355% 78.650% 7.858% 50 10
10 TalismanRing 78.729% 82.773% 78.280% 6.966% 49 10
11 BK007 77.761% 95.166% 75.827% 5.998% 48 10
12 8wombi7 76.887% 79.876% 76.555% 5.124% 47 10
13 Ridhoazka18 76.736% 89.360% 75.333% 4.973% 46 10
14 Rolling Thunder 76.541% 81.450% 75.996% 4.778% 45 10
15 BoxOfficeZ 76.148% 90.030% 74.605% 4.385% 44 10
16 DAR 76.065% 80.786% 75.540% 4.302% 43 10
17 Fanboy 75.866% 91.147% 74.168% 4.103% 42 10
18 Matrix4You 75.861% 83.879% 74.970% 4.098% 41 10
19 PanaMovie 75.618% 90.421% 73.974% 3.855% 40 10
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.