Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Of course. Everyone makes mistakes. But the thing is, they have access to tracking numbers and trends. They had the movie initially at 170 M (if I am not mistaken) then changed it to 214 M, a 44 M increase. You don't do that just out of hunch. They had numbers to base it on.

 

But what is tracking?  It's a guess.  The presales on this were tracking lower than AOU.  And we had other factors to use as well.  A good one was that Australia opened to the equivalent of around 190 million in the US.  That to me is a better indicator than whatever tracking the site used to bump it to a ridiculous 214.  214 is way too high and they simply made a mistake.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Let the spin commence. 

I mean, do you actually believe that reduced its OW significantly? Could it just be simply that the tracking was off because presales were a higher percentage of the gross than your average Marvel movie?

Edited May 7, 2016 by Jayhawk

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

It was tracking at 200M OW. 

 

Which makes the opening a surprise, at least to me. I thought the lowest this would do was 190 M based on these tracking numbers we are talking about plus the constant updates on the box office tracking thread.

[CJohn]

Just now, Jayhawk said:

I mean, do you actually believe that reduced its OW significantly? Could it just be simply that the tracking was off because presses sales were a higher percentage of the gross than your average Marvel movie?

It didn't reduce is OW at all. This is just nonsense people are throwing out to excuse the fact that this didn't reach 200M like pretty much everyone expecting. 

[CJohn]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

Which makes the opening a surprise, at least to me. I thought the lowest this would do was 190 M based on these tracking numbers we are talking about plus the constant updates on the box office tracking thread.

It can still do 190M. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, CJohn said:

It didn't reduce is OW at all. This is just nonsense people are throwing out to excuse the fact that this didn't reach 200M like pretty much everyone expecting. 

Oh got ya, I misunderstood what you were trying to say 

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

But what is tracking?  It's a guess.  The presales on this were tracking lower than AOU.  And we had other factors to use as well.  A good one was that Australia opened to the equivalent of around 190 million in the US.  That to me is a better indicator than whatever tracking the site used to bump it to a ridiculous 214.  214 is way too high and they simply made a mistake.

The pre-sales were actually higher than Ultron and BvS. 

[DeeCee]

A week ago the openings in both Australia and the U.K. pegged the absolute ceiling for Civil War OW as AoU less 5%.  Anything more then that was wishful thinking with no basis in reality. 

 

This OW is an excellent result. 

[MCKillswitch123]

26 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Guardians also opened with 95M. But both Guadians and Winter Soldier were after Avengers. After Avengers the Iron Man solo movies started to open over 170M  

 

Marvel should just give the man a lifetime contract that states a 50M paycheck for every movie he is in. 

 

Guardians doesn't count as a solo movie to me. It's an ensemble of characters, regardless of how well known they are. I'm still right, dammit 

[kayumanggi]

9 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

But what is tracking?  It's a guess.  The presales on this were tracking lower than AOU.  And we had other factors to use as well.  A good one was that Australia opened to the equivalent of around 190 million in the US.  That to me is a better indicator than whatever tracking the site used to bump it to a ridiculous 214.  214 is way too high and they simply made a mistake.

 

What pre-sales? Didn't this set a new record on Fandango?

Edited May 7, 2016 by kayumanggi

[filmnerdjamie]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The pre-sales were actually higher than Ultron and BvS. 

 

I remember the pre-sales for Watchmen were higher than 300. Ditto Superman Returns to Spider-Man 2. I never take those reports to heart.

[#ED]

5 hours ago, MrPink said:

Winter Soldier is better than Civil War IMO.

 

Of course, I think TDK is at the top. Spidey 2 and Batman Begins to follow.

 

Same here. This film isn't as good as TWS.

 

With that said, I didn't expect anything below 80M today.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

I remember the pre-sales for Watchmen were higher than 300. Ditto Superman Returns to Spider-Man 2. I never take those reports to heart.

I agree because times are changing and for every year that passes more and more people buy tickets online. Apocalypse pre-sales will be higher than Days of Future Past, and I am pretty sure it will open lower.

[That One Girl]

6 hours ago, HeyItsMoses said:

Yup.

 

@chasmmi, @WrathOfHan, @The Panda Knight, @ThatOneGuy, @firedeep, @grey ghost, @Kalo, @movieman, @Treetrunk Special, @Dexter of Suburbia, @Empire, @Simionski, @JJ-8, @Jake Gittes, @Jayhawk, @#ED, @Exxdee, @kayumanggi, @Mike Hunt, and @Alpha...what the fuck were you guys thinking? lol

 

Now, I can't wait to see the look on the people's faces that are predicting over $300m for Suicide Squad...

 

I WAS IN THE MOMENT OKAY???

[A Guy]

Grace Randolph called for a pg13 deadpool 

 

her  opinion is no longer valid 

[filmnerdjamie]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I agree because times are changing and for every year that passes more and more people buy tickets online. Apocalypse pre-sales will be higher than Days of Future Past, and I am pretty sure it will open lower.

 

According to El Mayimbe on Twitter, Alice 2 is tracking better with women (not a shocker, whatsoever). But tracking doesn't take into account how audiences have been rejecting Depp or the fact it's been six years since Alice. Hence why I'm not taking such figures to mean it will out-open X-Men. And why I always view tracking (and presales) with great hesitation. 

Edited May 7, 2016 by filmnerdjamie

[A Guy]

The fact that this is opening under aou is bad for the future period I'm calling I t now infinity war will open even lower

[Blaze Heatnix]

The whole thing was confusing. I think part of the problem is that Civil War wouldn't decide if it's a Cap movie or Avengers 2.5 or a Cap movie featuring the Avengers or Winter Soldier 2.5 or maybe everything!

 

From a marketing viewpoint, this is really confusing to general audiences. I had that problem with BVS too. The movie wanted to be 4 or 5 different movies at the same time. It started as a MOS sequel, then it turned into a Batman reboot, then it tried to set up Justice League, then tried to set Wonder Woman's solo movie, then it tried to set up a possible Injustice plot scenarion ( The Flash dream ) and then tried to adapt the most famous Superman saga ( Death and Return of Superman ) in freaking 20 minutes! All that in 2 hours and half.

 

 

Anthony Mackie said this is Avengers 3.6 or something like that. Then Downey Jr said this is his "Iron Man 4". Then the directors says this is pretty much a Cap sequel, with means it could be Winter Soldier 2 or Winter Soldier 2.5.

 

So, yeah. That can be confusing. Critics are praising Civil War, but people perhaps are seeing the movie for what it really is, not for the critics overhyping it like hell.

 

So, in a nutshell: People say this is a Cap movie, because it's told from "Cap's perspective". However, this is Civil War, which means we have to see other heroes perspectives too. It's a Cap movie featuring Avengers, but it's meant to perform like Avengers movies. When Civil War fails to match Avengers numbers, people will be saying this is fantastic for a Cap sequel. However, this is a sequel featuring almost every Avenger, plus Spidey and Black Panther. So, it's good for a Cap sequel, but disappointing for a Cap sequel featuring a ton of characters.

 

It depends on what is Marvel expecting from Civil War. 

[filmnerdjamie]

1 minute ago, A Guy said:

The fact that this is opening under aou is bad for the future period I'm calling I t now infinity war will open even lower

 

Bad for the long term, no. But I do think it will open lower.

[Deathlife]

16 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

A week ago the openings in both Australia and the U.K. pegged the absolute ceiling for Civil War OW as AoU less 5%.  Anything more then that was wishful thinking with no basis in reality. 

 

This OW is an excellent result. 

 

16 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

A week ago the openings in both Australia and the U.K. pegged the absolute ceiling for Civil War OW as AoU less 5%.  Anything more then that was wishful thinking with no basis in reality. 

 

This OW is an excellent result. 

Exactly.

 

Now people are pretending that we all said it was going to over $200m when a lot of us said it wouldn't. Heck, we used the Australia figure to project around $180-$200m.

 

Im really disappointed that people are ignoring/spinning this fact. If people went by boxoffice.com projections, fine, that's their prediction but I don't really appreciate people saying that "we all" expected $200m+.

 

Thats just flat out false. One only needs to go through the main thread to see this.I'll probably just scale back my posting on these forums. The passive/aggressiveness here is worse than most forums I visit.

 

Edited May 7, 2016 by Deathlife