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BOT User Tracking 5/13-15 Darkness, Money Monster

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And we're off! With a bit of a stumble perhaps, which might make it excellent preparation for this weekend.


Please provide your 5/13-15 Opening Weekend predicts for, 


Money Monster


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it.

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9 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

Under Secret in their eyes? I don't see how that is even possible.

Lots of things are possible when you believe.


And when your movie is so mediocre that it's sheltered from critic reviews at late as Wednesday night.

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More consistent results this time. We're slightly pessimistic on both movies, coming in with the 2nd lowest predict on The Darkness and tied for 2nd lowest on Money Monster. But that does mean we're roughly in the same range as everyone else. Except, of course, MovieWeb's 21.8M predict for Money Monster. Yes, I've checked twice, that is indeed what they predicted. I'm guessing they're smoking pure, uncut optimism. Or crack. Hard to tell over the internet.


MoviesRus managed to post their predict while I was putting together the numbers, but before I finished, so slipping an extra predict in wasn't a problem.



As usual, I totaled all predicts (16 for Darkness, 18 for Money Monster) and here are the results:



Mean: 3.6M

Median: 3.5M

StnDev: 1.70M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 46.87%

High: 7.4M

Low: 1.7M


BO.com 4.5M 

Deadline 4.5M

MovieWeb 3.2M

ShowBuzzDaily 4.5M

Variety 4M


Money Monster

Mean: 9.5M

Median: 9M

StnDev: 2.68M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 28.11%

High: 17M

Low: 5.7M


BO.com 8.9M 

Deadline 11M

MovieWeb 21.8M

ShowBuzzDaily 9.5M

Variety 10M

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Alright, I've calculated out how we've done. We've predicted approximately 123 movies, and I've broken things into 4 categories: 1-10 predicts, 11-25 predicts, 26-75, and 75+ predicts. Also, I've tracked how we've done as a collective whole, as well as how other predictor sites have done.  


All scores are done in average standard deviations from actual OW BO per predict. Here's how it looked:


1-10 predicts (110 people in this category. Yes, really)

The one-hit wonders. Surprisingly, Ruthie came in 3rd as 3 people have made a single predict and had that predict be the best predict for that movie.

#1 Arlo245 0.03

#2 Halba 0.04

#3 Ruthie 0.08


11-25 Predicts (18 people in this category)

#1 Krissykins 1.16 (2 best predicts in just 18 predicts)

#2 Beejaygrad11 1.24

#3 DynamiX 1.24


26-75 Predicts (18 "people" in this category)

#1 ShowBuzzDaily 1.09 (one of the predicting websites I use as a benchmark)

#2 TalismanRing 1.15

#3 CoolEric258 1.28


76+ Predicts (15 "people" in this category)

#1 BO.com 1.14

#2 Deadline 1.20

#3 Variety 1.23

#4 BOT predictors Median guess 1.27

#5 BOT predictors Mean guess 1.30

#6 Panamovie 1.36


Interesting and somewhat reassuring to see that our Median predict result was, on average, more accurate than any individual predictor who made more than 25 predicts, except TalismanRing (and CoolEric258 if we use Mean rather than Median). Maybe I should switch from using Mean as our benchmark to Median? At least they're pretty close to each other. Our single worst predictor was Gokira2012 who made a single predict (that F4 would open to $59M, making Gokira2012 kinda the mirror image of Arlo245) and has thus been off by an average of 4.95 standard deviations per pick. A straight, unweighted average of all our predictors' totals comes to 1.46, and our median is 1.40.


Disappointing that we were below 4 of the 5 other predictor sites, but at least we beat MovieWeb.com (1.35). Who knew Deadline and Variety were actually good at this?


Edited by Wrath
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Prediction: 3.6M +/- 1.7M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 5.0M (off by 1.4M, so 0.81 stndev)

Eh, not terrible. Unfortunately, we were the second lowest predict and it actually beat expectations. Spaghetti was our best predict at 5.1M

Money Monster

Prediction: 9.5M +/- 2.68M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 14.8M (off by 5.3M, so 1.97 stndev)

Ow. Just terrible, and our only solace is that everyone else was terrible, too, as we were roughly in the middle. MovieWeb's 21.8M predict looks a little less insane now, but they were still the worst of the lot. mahnamahna was our best predict at 13M.

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