Box Office Stories of 2016

[MCKillswitch123]

Since CW and MM will be the only things worth anything of a story for this weekend (Darkness bombing was easily foreseeable if you ask me), I decided to try to make a list of the coolest BO stories of the year so far (similar to Baumer's story threads for Summers 2015 and 14). Probably more entertaining than the weekend (unless I'm proven wrong and CW has a monster hold and MM breaks out big time) :

 

1. Deadpool (in general) - Did anybody honestly see this coming? I pegged it at 150M DOM tops. LOL, it's 4-day OW crossed that. Never in a billion years did I expect this to end up #1 of the year above BVS (until Civil War puts on the wheels), or for it to top American Sniper, or any previous X-Men film ever, or especially BVS, or for it to become the #1 R-rated film WW. Just insane.
2. Batman V Superman's big start and bigger collapse - Coming into 2016, I thought BVS and Rogue One were gonna be #1 and #2 of the year, and BVS would effortlessly crush the 300 and 400M marks the way Avengers or Dark Knight movies have. It won't even double its OW, the 8th biggest of all time, mind you. It'll be out of the top 5 by June, and it won't even touch a billion WW. It will finish w/about 330M DOM and slightly under 900M WW. Reflect that for a moment.
3. Zootopia's bulldozer performance - 330M+ off a 75M OW. And knocking the billion dollar club's doors as we speak. You don't see performances like that everyday, kids. And here was I dumbly predicting this film to be a lame furrybait that would become WDAS's 1st bomb since Winnie. On its, what, 10th and 11th weekend and it's still holding strong. This thing became a pop culture phenomenom, and considering the quality of the film, it's well deserved.
4. The Mermaid making history - I don't follow China box office personally, but even I can't say that I wasn't ecstatic when I saw the type of performance that Stephen Chow's The Mermaid was having over Middle Kingdom. The 1st film in history to gross 500M+ in a single territory that wasn't the USA, it made over 400M in 2 weeks! Just a sign of things to come for the box office of movies through the world, as China becomes more and more potent as a moviegoing country.
5. The Jungle Book's unexpected combo of amazing WOM/legs - While not quite as unexpected as Zootopia (hence why it's below it), nobody quite saw this type of performance coming. The trailers looked alright, but this, at the end of the day, was gonna be a CGI jerkoff that would've easily gone disastrously. But the reviews, the WOM and the BO performance have spoken. 100M+ OW? Constant 40% or under drops? 800M WW? Goddamn, Mowgli.
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane actually payed off - The idea of transforming a movie mid-production seems insane, but JJ unleashed this Cloverfield spin-off on us 2 months before release, and nobody knew about it beforehand! But, terrifyingly, the OG grossed only 80M and had horrendous legs. Luckily, audiences ate this one up big time, as, following a wave of stellar reviews, 10CL had a stupendous near 3X, going from 24M OW to 71M DOM (and 100M+ WW), despite only costing 25M PTA included and having only 2 months of marketing. Epic.
7. Zoolander 2's epic fail - For a movie that a lot of people had pegged to do crazy business, particularly due to its social media performance, this one really didn't work out. An initially strong marketing campaign that was eventually flushed and reviews that tore it a new one made what was one of the most hyped about movies of the year turn into a bomb of the kind that even a Margot Robbie Blue Steel couldn't make look good. And one can argue that the likes of Gods Of Egypt are bigger bombs technically, but neither did that have the excitement or the marketing to compare, so no.
8. The Revenant's bear legs - While it wouldn't ever be a complete shocker that The Revenant was successful, the movie's 130M budget worried plenty. It was nearly 3 hours long, 1/2 of those wasted on forgettable nonsense if you ask me. American Sniper it would not be. But low and behold, even against Star Wars and Ride Along, the movie, bolstered by Oscar buzz and Leo's draw power, did 180M DOM. 180!! And over 500M WW!!! Baffling to say the least.
9. The Boy smashing from outta nowhere - The Forest did pretty good to kick off the slate of horror films this year, but The Boy was a colossal hit by comparision. STX was still grinning off the unexpected success from The Gift, despite The Secret In Their Eyes' bombage. And while TB was by no means a critical darling, it seems STX knew how to sell it, as it had an astonishing 3.5X for a poorly reviewed horror film. 64M WW, for the matter, more than The Gift. Damn.
10. Captain America: Civil War's OW, breakout or disappointment? - A conversation spread out for a good part of the BO following moviegoers through the web (not just BOT), after Civil War's 179M opening, it was widely asked as to should this be considered a Cap movie or Avengers. The discussion has divided BO followers through and through, in a backlash less sized than that of Ultron's also underwhelming debut, but similar. A recent and still going story, but worth the list nonetheless.

HM's: Allegiant's ~50% drop from Insurgent; Kung Fu Panda 3 disappointment; Gods Of Egypt/PPZ/Triple 9/Grimsby/Young Messiah all epic bombs

Edited February 24, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[grim22]

Moving here for today, will move to Speakeasy post that.

[CJohn]

Watchmen did not have a better multiplier than BvS. 

[MCKillswitch123]

10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Watchmen did not have a better multiplier than BvS. 

 

Well, I probably didn't clarify well enough, as I had in mind that Watchmen came closer to doubling its OW numbers wise than BVS (3M short of that, opening to 55.4M and finishing w/107M vs 5M short, 166M OW vs 327M current). Surely BVS will do a little more though, but not a lot better.

 

But yeah, multiplier wise, you're right, I just checked BVS has a 1.97X multiplier vs Watchmen's 1.95X. Silly me. Basically, just ignore all of that .

Edited May 13, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[cannastop]

@MCKillswitch123

 

You really thought Zootopia would flop? I'll have to dig up those posts sometime.

[AniNate]

Along with Zootopia and BvS' individual storylines, I don't think even the most optimistic Disney nuts had Z coming out on top between them. Moana was always expected to be Disney's "event" this year. It may very well still be but Zootopia's run will surely go down as one of the most pleasant surprises this year

Edited May 13, 2016 by tribefan695

[Lordmandeep]

Storyline was martha

[somebody85]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Since CW and MM will be the only things worth anything of a story for this weekend (Darkness bombing was easily foreseeable if you ask me), I decided to try to make a list of the coolest BO stories of the year so far (similar to Baumer's story threads for Summers 2015 and 14). Probably more entertaining than the weekend (unless I'm proven wrong and CW has a monster hold and MM breaks out big time) :

 

1. Deadpool (in general) - Did anybody honestly see this coming? I pegged it at 150M DOM tops. LOL, it's 4-day OW crossed that. Never in a billion years did I expect this to end up #1 of the year above BVS (until Civil War puts on the wheels), or for it to top American Sniper, or any previous X-Men film ever, or especially BVS, or for it to become the #1 R-rated film WW. Just insane.
2. Batman V Superman's big start and bigger collapse - Coming into 2016, I thought BVS and Rogue One were gonna be #1 and #2 of the year, and BVS would effortlessly crush the 300 and 400M marks the way Avengers or Dark Knight movies have. It won't even double its OW, the 8th biggest of all time, mind you. It'll be out of the top 5 by June, and it won't even touch a billion WW. It will finish w/about 330M DOM and slightly under 900M WW. Reflect that for a moment.
3. Zootopia's bulldozer performance - 330M+ off a 75M OW. And knocking the billion dollar club's doors as we speak. You don't see performances like that everyday, kids. And here was I dumbly predicting this film to be a lame furrybait that would become WDAS's 1st bomb since Winnie. On its, what, 10th and 11th weekend and it's still holding strong. This thing became a pop culture phenomenom, and considering the quality of the film, it's well deserved.
4. The Mermaid making history - I don't follow China box office personally, but even I can't say that I wasn't ecstatic when I saw the type of performance that Stephen Chow's The Mermaid was having over Middle Kingdom. The 1st film in history to gross 500M+ in a single territory that wasn't the USA, it made over 400M in 2 weeks! Just a sign of things to come for the box office of movies through the world, as China becomes more and more potent as a moviegoing country.
5. The Jungle Book's unexpected combo of amazing WOM/legs - While not quite as unexpected as Zootopia (hence why it's below it), nobody quite saw this type of performance coming. The trailers looked alright, but this, at the end of the day, was gonna be a CGI jerkoff that would've easily gone disastrously. But the reviews, the WOM and the BO performance have spoken. 100M+ OW? Constant 40% or under drops? 800M WW? Goddamn, Mowgli.
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane actually payed off - The idea of transforming a movie mid-production seems insane, but JJ unleashed this Cloverfield spin-off on us 2 months before release, and nobody knew about it beforehand! But, terrifyingly, the OG grossed only 80M and had horrendous legs. Luckily, audiences ate this one up big time, as, following a wave of stellar reviews, 10CL had a stupendous near 3X, going from 24M OW to 71M DOM (and 100M+ WW), despite only costing 25M PTA included and having only 2 months of marketing. Epic.
7. Zoolander 2's epic fail - For a movie that a lot of people had pegged to do crazy business, particularly due to its social media performance, this one really didn't work out. An initially strong marketing campaign that was eventually flushed and reviews that tore it a new one made what was one of the most hyped about movies of the year turn into a bomb of the kind that even a Margot Robbie Blue Steel couldn't make look good. And one can argue that the likes of Gods Of Egypt are bigger bombs technically, but neither did that have the excitement or the marketing to compare, so no.
8. The Revenant's bear legs - While it wouldn't ever be a complete shocker that The Revenant was successful, the movie's 130M budget worried plenty. It was nearly 3 hours long, 1/2 of those wasted on forgettable nonsense if you ask me. American Sniper it would not be. But low and behold, even against Star Wars and Ride Along, the movie, bolstered by Oscar buzz and Leo's draw power, did 180M DOM. 180!! And over 500M WW!!! Baffling to say the least.
9. The Boy smashing from outta nowhere - The Forest did pretty good to kick off the slate of horror films this year, but The Boy was a colossal hit by comparision. STX was still grinning off the unexpected success from The Gift, despite The Secret In Their Eyes' bombage. And while TB was by no means a critical darling, it seems STX knew how to sell it, as it had an astonishing 3.5X for a poorly reviewed horror film. 64M WW, for the matter, more than The Gift. Damn.
10. Captain America: Civil War's OW, breakout or disappointment? - A conversation spread out for a good part of the BO following moviegoers through the web (not just BOT), after Civil War's 179M opening, it was widely asked as to should this be considered a Cap movie or Avengers. The discussion has divided BO followers through and through, in a backlash less sized than that of Ultron's also underwhelming debut, but similar. A recent and still going story, but worth the list nonetheless.

HM's: Allegiant's ~50% drop from Insurgent; Kung Fu Panda 3 disappointment; Gods Of Egypt/PPZ/Triple 9/Grimsby/Young Messiah all epic bombs

On 6), I wish they would release Valencia on the Bluray but it's never going to happen. Lucky test screening audiences that got to see it.

And I guessed both Deadpool and The Jungle Book would breakout (definitely not as big as they did though). I also guessed Batman V Superman wouldn't be as big as a lot of predictions due to real world WOM before the film showing a lack of excitement.

The Boy had an amazing trailer. I wish Hollywood would give another animatronic doll a chance. The audience is still there. It's still a really creepy concept.

Edited May 14, 2016 by somebody85

[mrqe93]

Disney crossed $1 billion DOM in record time (128 days). 

 

And this weekend, Disney might have three $300mil movies in the top 10. 

[cannastop]

8 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

Along with Zootopia and BvS' individual storylines, I don't think even the most optimistic Disney nuts had Z coming out on top between them. Moana was always expected to be Disney's "event" this year. It may very well still be but Zootopia's run will surely go down as one of the most pleasant surprises this year

I'm not that happy about Zootopia's claiming of 2nd place DOM for the moment.

 

It's more of a disappointment for BvS.

[baumer]

Terrific post

[filmlover]

1. That "legs" post.

[MCKillswitch123]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

1. That "legs" post.

 

#NeverForget

 

Not to brag, but I think I deserve a place on the BOT Hall Of Fame for that post alone.

 

And btw, got a huge announcement: I've already scheduled the sequel for the 1st weekend of June (OW of TMNT 2/Me Before You/Popstar), to coincide w/X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice 2's 2nd weekends. MARK IT IN YOUR CALENDARIES! #LegstleMania

[Eric Duncan]

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

I'm not that happy about Zootopia's claiming of 2nd place DOM for the moment.

 

It's more of a disappointment for BvS.

Hey, at least Zoo's behind a good movie.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Hey, at least Zoo's behind a good movie.

And hey, both 1st and 2nd place are claimed by movies that very few people thought would even pass $250 M domestic.

[Blankments]

Great post, but I'd move Jungle Book up to #3. Much bigger blindside than Zootopia IMO.

[chasmmi]

On 5/13/2016 at 7:23 AM, cannastop said:

@MCKillswitch123

 

You really thought Zootopia would flop? I'll have to dig up those posts sometime.

 

Flop is maybe too strong a word, but compared to Frozen, Big Hero 6 and the fact that 8 months later we would see the first post-Frozen Disney 'princess?' musical (starring the Rock!), kind of made it feel like Zootopia was a film that was just going to kind of be there. The Good Dinosaur to Moana's Inside Out.  

 

It being great isn't really the surprise for me, $1B WW, crushing Big Hero 6's box office and potentially being even the top animated film of the year (if Dory disappoints as I think it will), that would be considered crazy talk back in December. 

[cannastop]

Just now, chasmmi said:

 

Flop is maybe too strong a word, but compared to Frozen, Big Hero 6 and the fact that 8 months later we would see the first post-Frozen Disney 'princess?' musical (starring the Rock!), kind of made it feel like Zootopia was a film that was just going to kind of be there. The Good Dinosaur to Moana's Inside Out.  

 

It being great isn't really the surprise for me, $1B WW, crushing Big Hero 6's box office and potentially being even the top animated film of the year (if Dory disappoints as I think it will), that would be considered crazy talk back in December. 

I would have considered it crazy talk in December as well. The final trailer made me a fanboy for Zootopia, though. It was then I knew it was going to live up to its intriguing premise.

[MCKillswitch123]

Well, this is pretty much the last weekend of Summer season, and one that probably won't be bringing anything substantial, so I think I could bring you guys a new entry in the stories of the year topic. This one, much like the OP, will be entirely quarter-centric, and in this case, it'll be Q2 - Summer season - centric. Without further ado, my top 10 box office stories of Summer 2016.

 

1. Dory found a place in the stars: Highest grossing DOM animated film of all time (and biggest OW for the genre as well), #1 film of the year so far and, while not a run-away hit OS, close enough to $1B worldwide at the moment (and maybe will cross the mark somewhere down the line). What else is there to say? Dory was the closest thing to a juggernaut we saw all Summer, and potentially all year long. Some of its weekday performances overwhelmed Jurassic fucking World! Hell yeah to the blue fish.
2. Bombs away: Bombs. Bombs everywhere. Alice Through The Looking Glass, The BFG, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows, Independence Day: Resurgence, Warcraft (DOM at least), Ben-Hur... wow. Nevermind the absurd number of crappy legs, which made this year's season look like the Paralympics. Bombastic Summer, indeed.
3. A Civil War broke out between BO analysts: In my original post, I mentioned how Captain America: Civil War's OW (the biggest of the Summer, might I add) divided BO aficionados as to wheater or not its number was really good or underwhelming. I think we all can agree that the OW's result echoes Civil War's entire run. Despite all the WOM in the world, and despite null competition, Civil War had crappy legs, and only bolstered 407M DOM, doing less than Iron Man 3. What happened here, I don't think we will ever know, but it sure indicated something: Marvel may still be a king at the BO, but the superhero genre is no longer invulnerable.
4. The Secret Life Of Cha-Ching: Taking a spot in history as the highest grossing original non-Disney animated film ever, as well as the biggest original film OW of all time, it's safe to say that Illumination is the new top threat to Disney/Pixar's crown. W/the performance it's clocked so far, Pets may just beat Despicable Me 2 as the studio's biggest film ever DOM, and may finish in the range of O/U 800M WW, which would be insanely impressive (although not unseen this year, as demonstrated by Zootopia).
5. Suicidal tendencies by WB: If rumors are to be believed, it seems WB entered panic mode post-BVS's reaction and foresaw some serious butchering of David Ayer's Suicide Squad to turn it a bit more... family friendly. Well, the butchering wasn't really worth it after all, as the Squad's performance was basically on par w/BVS: big, big OW bolstered by a spectacular marketing campaign, and then an epic high 60's collapse on 2nd weekend. Luckily, it didn't lose the #1 grasp on Round 3, but it suffered another 50%+ drop anyway, so it's hardly a win. Nevertheless, Suicide Squad may end up being as the 1st film of the year to only barely crossing the 300M mark instead of doing quite a bit more (which even BVS did, at 330M).
6. The wettest dreams of people that like nightmares: Horror fans this year have nothing to complain about in regards to the genre's performance, because it's been on absolute fire. The Conjuring 2, Lights Out, The Purge: Election Year and The Shallows were all runaway hits, w/The Conjuring 2 becoming the 2nd highest grossing horror sequel of all time WW (only behind Hannibal), and Lights Out also crossing 100M throughout the globe despite a miniscule 5M budget. Unbelievable year to be a fan of creepy things. And it seems Don't Breathe may be continuing the trend, as it's expected to fight off Suicide Squad's 4th weekend for the #1 spot.
7. US vs. The World - Orcs version: I already mentioned Warcraft in my bombs tidbit, but Warcraft is a very special case here. It made a pesky 47M dollars DOM. Laughable, to say the least, right? Well, take at look at what it made OS. 386 fucking M, that would be. 220M of those coming from China, which pretty much broke any and every pre-sales records there were in its territory out of sheer expectation for this. The world went bananas for this film, and it proves that the audience was clearly here. If only the US marketing had been effective, and if only the film had been proven as rewatchable (something that the steep drops just about everywhere could tell you), the ceiling for Warcraft could've been the sky, really.
8. Bad Moms gone Pretty Damn Good: More than doubling last year's The Gift to become STX Entertainment's highest grossing film ever, Bad Moms has crushed expectations and then some, consistently clocking the smallest drops in the weekly top 10's since its release, and crossing the 100M mark WW. For a 20M budget film distributed by a newbie in town, that is a massive win, one that'll probably win Mila Kunis and Kristen Bell some well-fought work, and makes us all forgive STX for the Hardcore Henry and Free State Of Jones mishaps earlier this year.
9. Overbudget, but still the King of the Jungle: Almost nobody expected David Yates' The Legend Of Tarzan to be anything other than a horrendous flop. W/180M in production budget, it would be impossible for this movie to prevail, and Kevin Tsujihara, who had banked on its success as the only thing separating him between employment and unemployment, would surely see his days in WB done for good. But alas, despite not quite breaking even (needed roughly 450-500M to do so), Tarzan deserves respect for not giving up until the end, and providing the Summer w/one of its leggiest and most persistent runs. And what the hell, it actually finished in the top 10 DOM Summer movies of 2016. That's a turn of events that I don't think quite anybody, even the fierciest defenders of the film pre its release, could've seen coming. Not a success, but far from a flop, in both numbers and heart.
10. Diversity wins, baby: Another surprise entrant in the top 10 of the Summer, Central Intelligence brought home The Rock and Kevin Hart's starpower for good. Despite solid/mixed WOM, CI initially took a blow from debuting at 35M, roughly 20M less than San Andreas, and having to deal w/the juggernaut Finding Dory. However, the sleeper hit showed impressive staying power, clocking in a near 4x multiplier, one of the biggest of the season. Thus proving, once and for all, that diversity and starpower are still a big deal at the BO.

HM's: Ice Age 5 collapsing; Star Trek Beyond and X-Men: Apocalypse's disappointment; Ghostbusters' "boring" but not embarassing run

Edited August 25, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[MCKillswitch123]

Now waiting for @Baumer loves Dory's take