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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 5/27-29 Alice 2, X-Men: Apocalypse *4-day*

By Wrath, in Box Office Discussion

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

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Alice Through the Looking Glass

Prediction: 65M +/- 7.27M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 33.5M (off by 31.5M, so 4.34 stndev)

Just terrible. And while everyone did badly, we were the worst of the lot. mrqe93 was the best predict at 48M.

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X-Men: Apocalypse

Prediction: 88M +/- 8.2M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 79.8M (off by 8.2M, so 0.75 stndev)

Not a bad predict, but everyone else nailed it (except Deadline's "Oh, I dunno. Somewhere in this $30M range.") while we were merely in the ballpark. Best predict was CJohn at 80.5M.

 

Going forward, we are using our median predict as our formal number. Obviously I'll keep tracking both, but over almost a year of data our median has been consistently more accurate than our mean and, all things being equal, we'd rather make good predicts than bad ones.

Edited by Wrath
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