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AndyLL

Something doesn't seem Kosher about this Derby | Week 22

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1 hour ago, AndyLL said:

2 big openers this week:

 

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

 

Standings page now has May & Summer Season enabled.  Now I know why @No Prisoners wanted that fixed. :sadben:

Yup. Wanted to see my lead. I fudged up last weekend.  Would I care if I was in last?:D

No Prisoners 131 83.534% 3 77.769% 85.841% 6.491%
Rolling Thunder 123 82.014% 3 73.792% 84.173% 4.971%
moviecriticguy 117 81.527% 3 78.169% 83.026% 4.484%
TalismanRing 113 81.456% 3 77.725% 82.639% 4.414%
Matrix4You 112 80.788% 3 77.566% 82.989% 3.745%

 

Last week for the monthly. Dust off the abacus.  Good luck!

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2 hours ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Since Zootopia has dropped out of wide release, shouldn't it be removed from this week's lineup?

 

 

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

The new openers replace whatever the bottom movies were last weekend (In this case, Mother's Day and Huntsman)

 

In general I only do wide releases but typically I just drop the lowest BO movies each week.

 

Zootopia I would have likely keep no matter what.

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1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

What do ya mean we?

35m:sherlock:

 

Holdovers are going to be tricky. Especially Zoo and Darkness. Will be enough screwing going on to make Caligula 2

It's weird. Zootopia lost a shit ton of theaters, but its per theater average is most likely going up. The question is how much.

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17 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's weird. Zootopia lost a shit ton of theaters, but its per theater average is most likely going up. The question is how much.

Hard to say. I went with a 20% increase in PTA. Most movies slide more in PTA and the drop is harsher than the TC%. Rare for a movie to increase more than 20%. Could be .7m or 1.3m. 

Well know better in 2 hours.

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Deadline gave projections for just 7 movies. I checked a dozen scores

@WrathOfHan @8wombi7 @Wildbill and myself are within a point of each other. Most others are 3-4pts behind or more. As usual projection will shift dramatically and there are 3 more picks that can be anywhere judging by the both very good(TJB) and bad(N2) holds so far.

@Bates, you reversed Alice and Xmen. Costing you 13pts. Sorry to see that mistake. You and @Matrix4You will be close for top accuracy for the year at 84%~

 

@JMorphin you're just .9 outside the leader pack.

 

 

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A look at the all time leaders and a few notables 

@WrathOfHan    88.1     uh oh. Look who it is, #myderbyisscrewedagain

@JohnnY           87.7

No Prisoners      86.7

@JMorphin.       85.5

@8wombi7         84.7

@Bozly               85.0

@Wildbill.           84.3

@Matrix4You     83.0

@TalismanRing   84.1

@Rolling Thunder  82.8

@Bates                76.6      87.7 otherwise

@moviecriticguy  76.5

 

 

Baumer makes a rare appearance

@Baumer           81.4

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

A look at the all time leaders and a few notables 

@WrathOfHan    88.1     uh oh. Look who it is, #myderbyisscrewedagain

@JohnnY           87.7

No Prisoners      86.7

@JMorphin.       85.5

@8wombi7         84.7

@Bozly               85.0

@Wildbill.           84.3

@Matrix4You     83.0

@TalismanRing   84.1

@Rolling Thunder  82.8

@moviecriticguy  76.5

 

 

Baumer makes a rare appearance

@Baumer           81.4

 

 

 

How do you get this even before the weekend numbers are final?

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1 minute ago, Baumer said:

How do you get this even before the weekend numbers are final?

This is  just an indication of where the leaders are off the rough projections. Usually someone in the top 3 takes it. There can be a big shift when estimates and actuals come in. 

It's nice to see where ya stand. I do the math myself off each score. That's why it's just a sample. Others can check their score against this board. Matrix does a full spreadsheet later in the weekend.

 

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34 minutes ago, Baumer said:

This is my first time playing.  I think i picked a bad week to debut in. :)

I thought you had played before. Maybe star wars week? The first one? 

It is a hard week, anywhere over 80 is decent for a week like this. 

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I'm probably going to start playing the Derby week after next, and I was wondering: How precise can the predictions be? In the archives, it all seems to be rounded to the 10,000s (meaning to the hundredths place in terms of millions). Is that as specific as the calculations go, or do they include numbers entered beyond those two places?

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