The Little Mermaid | Disney | May 26, 2023 | Queen Halle will rule the summer!

[Valonqar]

8 hours ago, UnapologeticKenny said:

WOW, Halle can SING! 

 

Yes, she's a singer. 

 

 

[Joel M]

That fish looks dead

[jedijake]

BOP is definitely lowballing TLM's box office.

 

OW; $70-$90 million

Dom: $235-$305 million

 

WAY too low. Maybe it won't hit $400 million domestic, but it should be at least over $350 million.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

BOP is definitely lowballing TLM's box office.

 

OW; $70-$90 million

Dom: $235-$305 million

 

WAY too low. Maybe it won't hit $400 million domestic, but it should be at least over $350 million.

 

I don't think so...Shawn is obviously a little closer to my thoughts than yours...

 

It's a lot for Disney to ask D+ families to pay $20/person for a family of 4 to see a Disney live action classic animated remake, when they can watch a new "free" live action classic animated remake on D+ today, just 4 weeks out from open...

 

It was a strategy...and I think it's one that will bite them in the...

 

Edit to Add: It goes without saying I find his range reasonable for now...I might have gone lower for the total DOM lower bound...

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

49 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I don't think so...Shawn is obviously a little closer to my thoughts than yours...

 

It's a lot for Disney to ask D+ families to pay $20/person for a family of 4 to see a Disney live action classic animated remake, when they can watch a new "free" live action classic animated remake on D+ today, just 4 weeks out from open...

 

It was a strategy...and I think it's one that will bite them in the...

 

Edit to Add: It goes without saying I find his range reasonable for now...I might have gone lower for the total DOM lower bound...

 

The Little Mermaid will have longer windows so the 4 week wait argument is a bit redundant...

 

[WorkingonaName]

thinking about $600M for this. East Asia's falling interest in Hollywood is gonna kill it. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I don't think so...Shawn is obviously a little closer to my thoughts than yours...

 

It's a lot for Disney to ask D+ families to pay $20/person for a family of 4 to see a Disney live action classic animated remake, when they can watch a new "free" live action classic animated remake on D+ today, just 4 weeks out from open...

 

It was a strategy...and I think it's one that will bite them in the...

 

Edit to Add: It goes without saying I find his range reasonable for now...I might have gone lower for the total DOM lower bound...

 

I'd be shocked if this is on D+ in 4 weeks. I'd think more like at least 45 days but probably closer to 90 days. I think they've backed away from that model as seen with the much larger windows for WF and AM3.

[scytheavatar]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

BOP is definitely lowballing TLM's box office.

 

OW; $70-$90 million

Dom: $235-$305 million

 

WAY too low. Maybe it won't hit $400 million domestic, but it should be at least over $350 million.

 

Some people way overestimate the popularity of TLM and Ariel........... many seem to think that the IP is as big as Aladdin and should be earning as much. Yet the original TLM earned $211.3 million while Aladdin earned $504.1M. It was always going to be an uphill task for TLM to earn as much as Aladdin.

 

And of course TLM is the last silver bullet of the Disney Renaissance left, people should be shitting their pants at the thought of how much worse the likes of Hercules and Snow White will be doing in the box office. 

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd be shocked if this is on D+ in 4 weeks. I'd think more like at least 45 days but probably closer to 90 days. I think they've backed away from that model as seen with the much larger windows for WF and AM3.

 

No, I'm talking about Peter Pan and Wendy being available as a widely advertised D+ release...today, 4/28/23.  4 weeks out from LM, and in the exact same lane of live action classic animated...

 

Disney competed with itself...and that's gonna be a problem, I think. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

33 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

No, I'm talking about Peter Pan and Wendy being available as a widely advertised D+ release...today, 4/28/23.  4 weeks out from LM, and in the exact same lane of live action classic animated...

 

Disney competed with itself...and that's gonna be a problem, I think. 

Peter Pan and Wendy isn't going to affect TLM in the slightest especially with mixed reviews for the former. 

 

 

[Krissykins]

After watching Ghosted, I’ve decided to take a break on straight to streaming films and just continue seeing new films in the cinema. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Krissykins

[Jonwo]

I do think this narrative that Peter Pan and Wendy will hurt TLM is a bit odd, they're totally different in terms of scale and tone. 

 

I hope TLM is a success so we can have lots of humble pie.

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I do think this narrative that Peter Pan and Wendy will hurt TLM is a bit odd, they're totally different in terms of scale and tone. 

 

I hope TLM is a success so we can have lots of humble pie.

 

But what is a success...I think Shawn's numbers would be a success for the movie...but I feel like others want this at $400M - $500M+ DOM...

 

So, defining the terms is useful...

 

For me, with how Disney has set this up, $200M+ total DOM would be a success.  Anything less would be a failure.  I foresee a success unless the quality isn't there...

[UnapologeticKenny]

BOP estimate is better than my own, actually. Hope they are right about it!

 

Straight to streaming movies tend to be bad, so I don't think this could negatively affect TLM. I think Hocus Pocus 2 is the only exception regarding its quality (and imo a mistake not releasing it in theaters).

Edited April 28, 2023 by UnapologeticKenny

[joselowe]

I hope the film does well, but it seems to not be getting any interest online, even the official videos have low views.

Hoping this at least cracks 1 Billion worldwide

[keysersoze123]

I am with BO.com forecast as well. Disney has to rebuild the trust for non MCU movies at this point before we can expect blockbuster returns. In this streaming era there are too many options plus the June is a blood bath for sure. 

 

While we dont have great comps for early presales, nothing about it screams a breakout as well. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I initially thought Peter and Wendy might do as you said but watching it passively now while working... This might be that director's least memorable anything he's done ever. This is just plain blank and forgettable. I can see why it went directly to D+. 

[PrinceRico]

The Last thing TLM has to worry about is Peter Pan and Wendy. 

[jedijake]

Peter Pan has nothing to do with TLM. PP&W is free on D+ and people can watch it anytime. People aren't going to and don't need to choose between the two for money or time reasons.

 

I'm thinking kids have the summer off and need things to do. Aladdin was HUGE during its summer. If Mario can make $600 million domestic, TLM should be able to pull in high $300's.

[scytheavatar]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But what is a success...I think Shawn's numbers would be a success for the movie...but I feel like others want this at $400M - $500M+ DOM...

 

So, defining the terms is useful...

 

For me, with how Disney has set this up, $200M+ total DOM would be a success.  Anything less would be a failure.  I foresee a success unless the quality isn't there...

 

Not sure how you can call 200M a success when we do not know what the budget of this movie is........... I think chances are high the budget is going to be higher than what most people expect. Seeing COVID costs and movies involving water being notoriously expensive.

 

I think anything less than 800M WW should be seen as not a success and a sign that Disney live action adaptations are no longer the easy money it used to be. And if the BOP numbers are not wrong then chances are this movie is already a flop. Cause we should not expect the international numbers of this movie to look pretty.