The Little Mermaid | Disney | May 26, 2023 | Queen Halle will rule the summer!

[PrinceRico]

2 hours ago, cahramel said:

The difference between the critics score to the Top critics score is huge.

Look at the difference between the audience score and critics. Audience have spoken again.

[nydedan]

Verified Audience Score has risen to 95%. At least A Cinemascore guaranteed.

Edited May 26, 2023 by nydedan

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, nydedan said:

Verified Audience Score has risen to 95%. At least A Cinemascore guaranteed.

pretty nice... wonder how it holds up.

 

At least the reception isn't completely chilly.

[nydedan]

the "silent majority" are the ones who pay to see movies in the theater. no matter how loud those annoying racists scream and bomb and make a big fuss out of everything on social media, they don't matter at the end of the day. unfortunately, not many overseas markets have this kind of filtered audience score system and a lot of general movie-goers may be scared away by the bombed score even if they may actually end up liking the movie.

[Kon]

9 minutes ago, nydedan said:

the "silent majority" are the ones who pay to see movies in the theater. no matter how loud those annoying racists scream and bomb and make a big fuss out of everything on social media, they don't matter at the end of the day. unfortunately, not many overseas markets have this kind of filtered audience score system and a lot of general movie-goers may be scared away by the bombed score even if they may actually end up liking the movie.

The "silent majority" aren't necessarily people who buy a ticket. The "silent majority" are people who don't express their opinions (negatives or positives), but they affect the results because they are a big portion of the target audience.

 

I won't assume general movie-goes in foreign countrirs are scared away by the bombed score. If there a low box office in the overseas market, it's more likely because the "silent majority" is just not interested in the movie (it's possible this lack of interest is due to racism).

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Kon

[nydedan]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

The "silent majority" aren't necessarily people who buy a ticket. The "silent majority" are people who don't express their opinions (negatives or positives), but they affect the results because they are a big portion of the target audience.

 

I won't assume general movie-goes in foreign countrirs are scared away by the bombed score. If there a low box office in the overseas market, it's more likely because the "silent majority" is just not interested in the movie (it's possible this lack of interest is due to racism).

 

yes and this is sad.

[Issac Newton]

Maoyan is only classifying the P one

 

6 Postive 10 ⭐ vs 630 Random Thoughts

 

[nydedan]

saw many reviews mentioning "best Disney live-action", "Halle's voice is breathtaking", and even "applauded in the end". the GP seems to really eat it up (at least in the domestic market). glad to see our girl Halle getting the praise she deserved after has gone through so many sh*t.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

13 minutes ago, nydedan said:

saw many reviews mentioning "best Disney live-action", "Halle's voice is breathtaking", and even "applauded in the end". the GP seems to really eat it up (at least in the domestic market). glad to see our girl Halle getting the praise she deserved after has gone through so many sh*t.

There was never any doubt Americans would eat this up. The studio even gets to milk some of that Black Panther audience thanks to the black Ariel. Overseas revenue is going to be a problem though, possibly because of a combination of the original animation not resonating as well with them and a potential indifference towards diversity and inclusion. These factors could make this one of the most domestic-heavy blockbusters of modern times.

[PrinceRico]

28 minutes ago, nydedan said:

saw many reviews mentioning "best Disney live-action", "Halle's voice is breathtaking", and even "applauded in the end". the GP seems to really eat it up (at least in the domestic market). glad to see our girl Halle getting the praise she deserved after has gone through so many sh*t.

She definitely deserves the success of the film. 

[GipJo]

2 hours ago, nydedan said:

the "silent majority" are the ones who pay to see movies in the theater. no matter how loud those annoying racists scream and bomb and make a big fuss out of everything on social media, they don't matter at the end of the day. unfortunately, not many overseas markets have this kind of filtered audience score system and a lot of general movie-goers may be scared away by the bombed score even if they may actually end up liking the movie.

Or domestic is just very different audience from overseas and oversea's audience didn't like it. Speaking of verified scores, China and SK have them, and they didn't look good.

[PrinceRico]

Very strong WOM. Would not be surprised to see the weekend box office go up. Friday pre sales look great.

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There was never any doubt Americans would eat this up. The studio even gets to milk some of that Black Panther audience thanks to the black Ariel. Overseas revenue is going to be a problem though, possibly because of a combination of the original animation not resonating as well with them and a potential indifference towards diversity and inclusion. These factors could make this one of the most domestic-heavy blockbusters of modern times.

 

you're talking like we are months ago and not with the movie already out in most international markets. Numbers are here and they are ok, in some market a little bit worst than Aladdin, in some a little bit better. It's gonna make good to great OS numbers. 

[JustLurking]

25 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

you're talking like we are months ago and not with the movie already out in most international markets. Numbers are here and they are ok, in some market a little bit worst than Aladdin, in some a little bit better. It's gonna make good to great OS numbers. 

the way it looks it's making maybe half of aladdin OS. europe looks ok more or less close to aladdin. but aladdin did great in asia while this is looking disastrous in asia.

Edited May 26, 2023 by JustLurking

[Issac Newton]

19 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

It's gonna make good to great OS numbers. 

$250M OS is not a *great* number. 

 

In Asia, it's doing behind Fast X &GOTG3. India PS is not even on Top 20. Totally lost in Korea &China. Japan would either give Avatar 2 Number or less than $10M ~ Cruella/Jungle Cruise. Hong Kong Numbers are behind Fast X (which is already performing CoVid-19 F9 Numbers) 

 

Not sure seeing which market it it's going good. And Comps should be with Beauty &The Beast not Aladdin 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

22 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

you're talking like we are months ago and not with the movie already out in most international markets. Numbers are here and they are ok, in some market a little bit worst than Aladdin, in some a little bit better. It's gonna make good to great OS numbers. 

No way. Maybe you're focusing on EU numbers (you're a fellow italian if I remember correctly, and here it is doing a bit worse than Aladdin, indeed) but you need to look up Aladdin's B.O., because that  underperformed greatly in many markets in Europe,  and earned more than half of its money in Asia. Asian markets numbers for TLM are a utter disaster.

This is basically playing like Dumbo, but with slightly better performances in Europe and a worse performance in China. 

Dumbo was a flop.

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

No way. Maybe you're focusing on EU numbers (you're a fellow italian if I remember correctly, and here it is doing a bit worse than Aladdin, indeed) but you need to look up Aladdin's B.O., because that  underperformed greatly in many markets in Europe,  and earned more than half of its money in Asia. Asian markets numbers for TLM are a utter disaster.

This is basically playing like Dumbo, but with slightly better performances in Europe and a worse performance in China. 

Dumbo was a flop.

Dumbo's problem was that it tanked domestic. This one won't, so while the OS numbers are mediocre, it won't be a flop. But it won't be a big hit either.

Edited May 26, 2023 by JustLurking

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

16 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Dumbo's problem was that it tanked domestic. This one won't, so while the OS numbers are mediocre, it won't be a flop. But it won't be a big hit either.

Yes indeed, I meant that Dumbo was an international flop.

This one won't be a complete flop DOM+OS but will hardly recoup its mighty budget and great marketing costs. Deadline had a breakdown on BATB total costs and that had about 360M in expenses production budget+ Marketing costs, with a break-even point at 750 M, roughly.

 

650 M (350 dom+ 300 OS) should be the high end total WW gross of this one, so it is indeed in trouble. Also we have to consider that the money used for this film was mostly on hold for 4 + years, as it had a longer than usual developement cycle. That is rough on Disney's finances.

Edited May 26, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[jedijake]

Well, based on the audience score right now, a low overseas total says more about "them" than the movie I'd say. With all that has been said, I am more curious about the response from Europe and Australia than Asia because, well, there was nothing anyone could do about the response from Asian nations. 

 

As for domestic, this is going to make more than Aladdin. Possibly quite a bit more. Do people foresee an Aladdin situation where the true Friday-Monday stays pretty even and flat?

Edited May 26, 2023 by jedijake

[Kon]

22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Well, based on the audience score right now, a low overseas total says more about "them" than the movie I'd say. With all that has been said, I am more curious about the response from Europe and Australia than Asia because, well, there was nothing anyone could do about the response from Asian nations. 

 

As for domestic, this is going to make more than Aladdin. Possibly quite a bit more.

 

To be fair, The Lion King 2019 has an 88% in the RT Audience Score (this happened before showing a ticket was necessary). So, the RT Audience Score doesn't tell me anything about quality.

 

I wouldn't bet a lot more money than Aladdin in domestic. It's proyected to make 120 Million domestic in the OW, which is more but not a lot more that Aladdin domestic OW.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Kon