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BOT User Tracking 6/3-5 Me Before You, Popstar, TMNT 2

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If everything was a breakout hit, we wouldn't appreciate the ones that actually are, so lets consider last weekend a character building experience. Now lets use that knowledge to predict the hell out of this coming weekend's fine-ish slate of movies.


Please provide your 6/3-5 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Me Before You




Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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4 hours ago, department store basement said:


You think it'll make only 8m? The book is hugely popular. I see it constantly at grocery stores.


TMNT2 - 55m

Me Before You - 23m

Popstar - 3.6m

I've never hears of the book before. All I know is that the movie looks like total garbage

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Full slate of actual predicts this week, though MovieWeb.com continued its tradition of periodically putting in predictions that are batshit insane. To be fair, they've occasionally been prescient with these, but usually they're not. This week they have two, predicting 10.2M for Popstar and 61.3M for TMNT 2. Who knows? Maybe this week they'll be right.


Our predicts are slightly high on Me Before You, about in the middle on Popstar, and quite optimistic on TMNT 2.


Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. 


As usual, I totaled all predicts (17 for Me Before You and TMNT 2, 16 for Popstar) and here are the results: 


Me Before You

Mean: 16.3M

Median: 16.4M

StnDev: 4.41M (revised StnDev: 3.99M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.91%

High: 23.5M

Low: 8M


BO.com 18.5M 

Deadline 13M

MovieWeb 15.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 15.5M

Variety 14M


Popstar: Never stop never stopping

Mean: 6.3M

Median: 5.8M

StnDev: 2.34M (revised StnDev: 2.27)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 40.29%

High: 11M

Low: 3.5M


BO.com 5.5M 

Deadline 4M

MovieWeb 10.2M

ShowBuzzDaily 6M

Variety 6M


Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2

Mean: 44.7M

Median: 44M

StnDev: 8.9M (revised StnDev: 9.93)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.23%

High: 67.1M

Low: 32M


BO.com 27M 

Deadline 33M

MovieWeb 61.3M

ShowBuzzDaily 37.5M

Variety 37M

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2 hours ago, johnboy3434 said:

I know it wasn't part of the topic, but what would everyone's estimates be for Love & Friendship's wide opening this weekend? My guess is 2.77M.

Good question. I'm actually not sure it'll break $2M. Its going from ~500 theaters to 800, but its per/theater total is probably going to drop. Ok, yeah, I think its a good bet to be over $2M, but I suspect that'll be barely over. Maybe $2.2M or so. That having been said, I finally saw a commercial for it, so maybe its getting marketing somewhere.

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Me Before You

Prediction: 16.4M +/- 4.41M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 18.7M (off by 2.3M, so 0.52 stndev)

Not bad, and the second best predict. BO.com nailed it, we were pretty close, and everyone else missed by a bunch. Not bad at all.  Johnboy3434 had the best predict at 18.1M.



Prediction: 5.8M +/- 2.34M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 4.7M (off by 1.1M, so 0.47 stndev)

Another solid predict, though this time we were roughly in the middle of the pack.  I was our best predict at 4.5M.



Prediction: 44M +/- 8.9M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 35.3M (off by 8.7M, so 0.98 stndev)

Not good but not terrible, and not bad at all for the worst predict of the week though we were the worst predict, other than MovieWeb's fever-induced 61.3M. CoolEric258 was closest at 34.6M

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