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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 6/10-12 Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft

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Summer of many disappointing sequels? Will that keep up this weekend? We'll see.

 

Please provide your 6/10-12 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Conjuring 2

Now You See Me 2

Warcraft

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Edited by Wrath
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4 hours ago, Sirbadd said:

Warcraft: $70M (yes I am going to look stupid, but Blizzard has a religious cult following lol sleeper hit)

Conjuring: $31M

Now you see Me: $24M

 

 

Well, the good news is that you're *extremely* unlikely to be our worst predictor, ever. :)

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Deadline dropped the ball this week, apparently so wrapped up in Warcraft's impressive overseas performance that they failed to run a piece on domestic projections. MovieWeb continued its tradition of bizarre predicts for another week, going with 19.5M for Conjuring 2 and 42.3M for Warcraft. To be fair, we had lower predicts for Conjuring 2 and higher for Warcraft, but that's why we do Medians now. Also interesting, I suspect Warcraft is the most uncertain we've ever been on a movie for which we expect a decently high OW.

 

Typically, Ratio is inversely proportional to a movie's expected OW and once you get over 20M or so, its typically in the the 20% kinda range. NYSM 2's 29.90% would be notable high for a movie expected to open over 20M, except that Warcraft is at 42.50%. Conveniently, we tend to do better on movies with higher Ratio's (ie. Movies we have less consensus on its OW total), so maybe that means we'll nail Warcraft. Also, Warcraft probably has the biggest gap between our Mean and Median predictions of any movie we've predicted.

 

Compared to other sites, we're moderately optimistic on Conjuring 2, slightly pessimistic on NYSM 2 (except for MovieWeb's nuttiness), and slightly optimistic on Warcraft.

 

Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. 

 

As usual, I totaled all predicts (26 for everything) and here are the results: 

 

Conjuring 2

Mean: 39.2M

Median: 39.5M

StnDev: 8.07M (revised StnDev: 10.72M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.44%

High: 55.6M

Low: 16.7M

 

BO.com 33.5M 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 19.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 35M

Variety 35M

 

Now You See Me 2

Mean: 21.1M

Median: 20.7M

StnDev: 6.19M (revised StnDev: 7.07)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 29.9%

High: 37M

Low: 9.2M

 

BO.com 27M 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 15.2M

ShowBuzzDaily 26.5M

Variety 23M

 

Warcraft

Mean: 29.5M

Median: 26.5M

StnDev: 11.26M (revised StnDev: 11.97)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 42.50%

High: 70M

Low: 16M

 

BO.com 21M 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 42.3M

ShowBuzzDaily 23M

Variety 25M

Edited by Wrath
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