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BOT user predicts 6/17-19 - Central Intelligence, Finding Dory

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Looks like we were a bit optimistic on Central Intelligence and about in the middle on Dory. While a 15.89% ratio looks low overall, in the rarefied world of 100-140M OW movies, its actually unusually high so we were rather less confident than usual on movies opening at this level.


Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. 


As usual, I totaled all predicts (27 for Central Intelligence and 28 for Finding Dory) and here are the results: 


Central Intelligence

Mean: 37.2M

Median: 36.7M

StnDev: 8.08M (revised StnDev: 7.90M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.02%

High: 54.5M

Low: 20M


BO.com 34M 

Deadline 30M

MovieWeb 25.7M

ShowBuzzDaily 36.5M

Variety 35M


Finding Dory

Mean: 126.7M

Median: 122M

StnDev: 19.38M (revised StnDev: 18.36)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 15.89%

High: 205M

Low: 105M


BO.com 131M 

Deadline 113M

MovieWeb 116M

ShowBuzzDaily 127.5M

Variety 130M

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Central Intelligence

Prediction: 36.7M +/- 8.08M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 35.5M (off by 1.2M, so 0.15 stndev)

Yet another excellent predict, though most other sites also nailed it pretty well and we were only the 4th best predict. Still, a result we should be pleased with. The initial Sunday estimates were EXACTLY on my predict, which was cool, but naturally it bumped up to 35.5M Sadly, there was a 4-way tie for closest at 35M, so no one gets it.


Finding Dory

Prediction: 122M +/- 19.38M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 135.1M (off by 13.1M, so 0.68 stndev)

Not great but not bad. Second straight week without a bad predict is a nice streak. We were about in the middle, results-wise, so its been a good couple weeks for predicting overall. Ncsoft was our best predictor at 135M

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