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BOT User Tracking 6/24-26 Free State of Jones, Independence Day, Neon Demon, Shallows

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My favorite part of summer, as seemingly every weekend has a big blockbuster coming and its almost impossible to suffer through back-to-back weekends without anything worth watching (unlike, say, September, when stretches like that can last a month or more). Let the festivities continue!


Please provide your 6/24-26 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Free State of Jones

Independence Day 2

Neon Demon



Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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I'm lowering my original prediction for Free State of Jones and increasing the one for The Shallows 

ID4- $40M (I may even go lower closer to the release date 

The Shallows- $21M (if it gets good reviews and good WOM I think this will go up) 

Free State of Jones- $9M (I see promo for it but I don't see any buzz for it)

Neon Demon- $1M 


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Independence Day - 46 (hopefully lower. It looks terrible, but transformers 'turn off your brain' crowd might show.)

The Shallows - 27 (going high with this one, buzz and marketing have been incredible.)

Free State of Jones - 8 (wrong year for a white savior movie. Also looks meh.)

Neon Demon - 1 (reviews needed to be better. Horror crowd will go shallows, art-house crowd for Swiss army man or Wilderpeople)



Edited by Daniel23
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27 minutes ago, kowhite said:

The ID4-2 numbers make me sad.  Free State of Jones is getting what it deserves.  Shallows...kinda hoping it beats expectations.


Neon Demon isn't making shit.  

Yeah. I don't even know how many screens Neon Demon is opening on other than "Wide". Could be 600.

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Somewhat fewer predicts than last week, but not a huge difference, which is a surprise to me. A Finding Dory doesn't come out every week, whereas an ID: Resurgence, if you look at the lower predicts, pretty much does. Perhaps this is a good sign for the weekend? I wonder if there's a correlation between the # of predicts and the OW totals.


MovieWeb.com's predicts were disappointing in that I was expecting like 95M for ID:2 and 3.5M for Shallows, but they were almost reasonable this week.  Almost (3.9M Neon Demon?). Also, I think we're all a little sad Neon Demon was released in 700-ish theaters instead of, say, 590. Did it really *HAVE* to be a wide release? Sigh.


Compared to the other sites, our predicts are about in the middle on Free State of Jones, rather pessimistic on ID:R, extremely pessimistic on Neon Demon, and quite optimistic on The Shallows. 


As usual, I totaled all predicts (20 for Free State of Jones and ID:2, 19 for Shallows and 15 for Neon Demon) and here are the results: 


Free State of Jones

Mean: 10.4M

Median: 9.6M

StnDev: 2.53M (revised StnDev: 2.33M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.31%

High: 15.2M

Low: 6.11M


BO.com 9.5M 

Deadline 12M

MovieWeb 9M

ShowBuzzDaily 9.5M

Variety 12M


Independence Day: Resurgence

Mean: 47.4M

Median: 45.2M

StnDev: 8.91M (revised StnDev: 8.32)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.44%

High: 70M

Low: 31.6M


BO.com 53M 

Deadline 48.5M

MovieWeb 55.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 56.5M

Variety 50M


Neon Demon

Mean: 1.2M

Median: 1M

StnDev: 0.49M (revised StnDev: 0.86)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 49.03%

High: 2.5M

Low: 0.62M


BO.com 2.6M 

Deadline 2M

MovieWeb 3.9M

ShowBuzzDaily 2.5M

Variety 2.5M


The Shallows

Mean: 15.3M

Median: 14.8M

StnDev: 4.5M (revised StnDev: 4.56)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 30.4%

High: 27M

Low: 7M


BO.com 13M 

Deadline 9M

MovieWeb 17.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 12M

Variety 7M

Edited by Wrath
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