Transformers: The Last Knight (June 23, 2017)

[titanic2187]

Given that not-so-much China's agenda inside this TF5, at least from trailer, i presume it would'nt increase much from TF4, even if it does, it'll likely wiped out by weaker yuan against greenback

 

Edited June 17, 2017 by titanic2187

[Mr Impossible]

DOM - $170M

OS - $720M 

WW - $890M 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

You're expecting it to increase from $320m? I thought that staying flat was the most optimist scenario. Didn't the last one had a month to itself? Will this one receive the same support from Government?

 

There have been significant theater expansion since TF4 opened. So movies can make more in less time. Anyway its 1st 7 days which matter the most in china(unless its a movie that came out of nowhere like Dangal). It does not need government support to gross TF4 numbers. Question is the interest and I cannot say about that. Let @Olive / @firedeep / @Gavin Feng chime in on that. 

[bruchav]

Dom: $190m

China: $340m

OS-China: $430m

WW: $960m.

[a2k]

Dom 155

OS 685

WW 840

[A Marvel Fanboy]

TF4 didn't get Government support in China. As far as I have observed, TF5 buzz falls slightly behind F8 so its likely gross could be somewhere between TF4 (2B) and F8 (2.7B). Decreasing from TF4 would be a diaster: it would mean less than low 500M WW (like 80m DOM, 180M- OS-C, Sub 300M China), which will put the TF franchise dead and just seems too bad to be true.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

There have been significant theater expansion since TF4 opened. So movies can make more in less time. Anyway its 1st 7 days which matter the most in china(unless its a movie that came out of nowhere like Dangal). It does not need government support to gross TF4 numbers. Question is the interest and I cannot say about that. Let @Olive / @firedeep / @Gavin Feng chime in on that. 

 

I see, thanks. I was kinda pessimistic because of F8, that, despite the whole massive buzz before the release, barely increase from the last one (it actually decrease in "real" numbers, didn't?), considering that the last TF had the perfect storm, I had no idea that it still had room to grow. Glad that I'm wrong, although, apparently, franchise fatigue is not a thing in China.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

7 hours ago, firedeep said:

TF4 didn't get Government support in China. As far as I have observed, TF5 buzz falls slightly behind F8 so its likely gross could be somewhere between TF4 (2B) and F8 (2.7B). Decreasing from TF4 would be a diaster: it would mean less than low 500M WW (like 80m DOM, 180M- OS-C, Sub 300M China), which will put the TF franchise dead and just seems too bad to be true.

 

This is tracking at $70m for the first five days DOM, this is not grossing only $80m DOM, let alone $180m OS-C.

[Mr Impossible]

8 hours ago, firedeep said:

TF4 didn't get Government support in China. As far as I have observed, TF5 buzz falls slightly behind F8 so its likely gross could be somewhere between TF4 (2B) and F8 (2.7B). Decreasing from TF4 would be a diaster: it would mean less than low 500M WW (like 80m DOM, 180M- OS-C, Sub 300M China), which will put the TF franchise dead and just seems too bad to be true.

 

Lol are you trolling? This is in no way missing $500M WW. $1B WW is not even dead yet. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

It has zero chances at grossing $1B, even if it does $500m in China.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

33 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

 

Lol are you trolling? This is in no way missing $500M WW. $1B WW is not even dead yet. 

I meant 'if' i.e. in worst case scenario.

7 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

It has zero chances at grossing $1B, even if it does $500m in China.

this I agree with. Pirates5's 700M WW probably is the best TF5 can hope for with a similar DOM gross. TF5 will be bigger than Pirates5 in China but it is even weaker than Pirates 5 in Europe.

Edited June 18, 2017 by firedeep

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

I see, thanks. I was kinda pessimistic because of F8, that, despite the whole massive buzz before the release, barely increase from the last one (it actually decrease in "real" numbers, didn't?), considering that the last TF had the perfect storm, I had no idea that it still had room to grow. Glad that I'm wrong, although, apparently, franchise fatigue is not a thing in China.

 

Fate increased in yuan(even if you take out the service charge from BO). But ER is worse since last one and so it barely dropped in $. 

[Mr Impossible]

How much $$$ are you guys predicting it to make by Sunday? $300M+

[a2k]

On 6/18/2017 at 8:31 PM, firedeep said:

I meant 'if' i.e. in worst case scenario.

this I agree with. Pirates5's 700M WW probably is the best TF5 can hope for with a similar DOM gross. TF5 will be bigger than Pirates5 in China but it is even weaker than Pirates 5 in Europe.

 

Probably besides the point but,

POTC looking at 740-760 with 50-60 from Japan (releases July 1).

 

Currently at 150 dom + 500 OS for 650 WW.

OS it added 35-36 over the last week (not weekend). So should add 25-30 in rest of the entire run in current markets.

Will add 15-20 odd dom (after a weekend of 9).

So 650 + 25-30 + 15-20 = 690-700 without Japan.

Japan should bring 50-60.

So 690-700 + 50-60 = 740-760.

 

Even if TF5 disappoints I think 800 is the floor. Haven't followed the presales in China but 275+ is looking like the floor isn't it?

150 dom + 275 China + 375 OS-China = 800

[Mockingjay Raphael]

52 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Probably besides the point but,

POTC looking at 740-760 with 50-60 from Japan (releases July 1).

 

Currently at 150 dom + 500 OS for 650 WW.

OS it added 35-36 over the last week (not weekend). So should add 25-30 in rest of the entire run in current markets.

Will add 15-20 odd dom (after a weekend of 9).

So 650 + 25-30 + 15-20 = 690-700 without Japan.

Japan should bring 50-60.

So 690-700 + 50-60 = 740-760.

 

Even if TF5 disappoints I think 800 is the floor. Haven't followed the presales in China but 275+ is looking like the floor isn't it?

150 dom + 275 China + 375 OS-China = 800

 

I think that this OS-C total is too optimistic. Pirates dropped 40% OS-C, if TF5 follows the same pattern, it would be looking at a total just above $320m, and I see no reason why it would have a better retention when:

 

A) the fatigue is even bigger.

 

it doesn't have two huge markets to maintain it like Pirates had Russia & Japan.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

I think that this OS-C total is too optimistic. Pirates dropped 40% OS-C, if TF5 follows the same pattern, it would be looking at a total just above $320m, and I see no reason why it would have a better retention when:

 

A) the fatigue is even bigger.

 

it doesn't have two huge markets to maintain it like Pirates had Russia & Japan.

Yeah. 320 with my figures would take it to 750.

Wonder what China projections are right now.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

5 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

Probably besides the point but,

POTC looking at 740-760 with 50-60 from Japan (releases July 1).

 

Currently at 150 dom + 500 OS for 650 WW.

OS it added 35-36 over the last week (not weekend). So should add 25-30 in rest of the entire run in current markets.

Will add 15-20 odd dom (after a weekend of 9).

So 650 + 25-30 + 15-20 = 690-700 without Japan.

Japan should bring 50-60.

So 690-700 + 50-60 = 740-760.

 

Even if TF5 disappoints I think 800 is the floor. Haven't followed the presales in China but 275+ is looking like the floor isn't it?

150 dom + 275 China + 375 OS-China = 800

700~800m could be the range, for now.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

From SK:

 

Transformers: The Last Knight Box Office (Opening day)
OD admissions: 280,495
Total admissions (with previews): 282,334
Gross (USD): $1.92M
 
Previous Transformers series Opening Day (admissions)
TF1: 306,678
TF2: 478,269
TF3: 544,995
TF4: 467,419
 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

SK is, after China, the most important market for this franchise OS. This dropping 40% there is an awful sign for what is coming in Europe/OS, $280m OS-C may actually be optimistic. 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I'm starting to think the range is now down to 700 to 750 mil WW.