Transformers: The Last Knight (June 23, 2017)

[Blaze Heatnix]

Based on the fact that this movie seems to be decreasing if compared to the previous one ( even China's numbers seem to be down ), 1 billion won't happen.

[a2k]

19 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Based on the fact that this movie seems to be decreasing if compared to the previous one ( even China's numbers seem to be down ), 1 billion won't happen.

 

I think 900 is out too. 

170 Dom + 330 Ch + 400 OS-Ch gives 900 but all three of those are optimistic imo.

155 Dom + 305 Ch + 365 OS-Ch for 825 seems realistic.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Just now, a2knet said:

 

I think 900 is out too. 

170 Dom + 330 Ch + 400 OS-Ch gives 900 but all three of those are optimistic imo.

155 Dom + 305 Ch + 365 OS-Ch for 825 seems realistic.

At this point I would be ecstatic for 825 mil! 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

At this point I would be ecstatic for 825 mil! 

Yeah. China should not have any bad surprises for 825 to happen. The pre-sales imo are pointing to below 300 but am not good at China bo stuff. Those on BOT I trust with it believe 300 is not dead. Seems it's not gonna have much competition either.

POTC5 below 800 was a downer but tolerable since China came at 170+. TF5 below 800 would be a shocker considering China is so much bigger.

[keysersoze123]

SK Number is horrible. It will miss 3m admissions at this rate. Even Mummy broke OD record(though that was a holiday). and Mummy wont gross even 4m admissions. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

 

I think 900 is out too. 

170 Dom + 330 Ch + 400 OS-Ch gives 900 but all three of those are optimistic imo.

155 Dom + 305 Ch + 365 OS-Ch for 825 seems realistic.

 

This is not going to make $365m OS-C, when it is dropping 40% in one of its main markets, Germany seems to be bombing as well. And I'm pretty sure it won't touch in $800m, not even $750m is locked yet. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

SK Number is horrible. It will miss 3m admissions at this rate. Even Mummy broke OD record(though that was a holiday). and Mummy wont gross even 4m admissions. 

 

How's things looking in China? Do you still believe in an increase? 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

This is not going to make $365m OS-C, when it is dropping 40% in one of its main markets, Germany seems to be bombing as well. And I'm pretty sure it won't touch in $800m, not even $750m is locked yet. 

wow. that's stunning.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Based on the weekdays, numbers seem to be disappointing. However, shouldn't we wait for the weekend?

 

I mean, usually movies are released on Thursdays and/or Fridays. 

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

SK is, after China, the most important market for this franchise OS. This dropping 40% there is an awful sign for what is coming in Europe/OS, $280m OS-C may actually be optimistic. 

 

It is a very discerning audience too, no ? That can go really high on movie that look good and very low the other way around.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

17 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Based on the weekdays, numbers seem to be disappointing. However, shouldn't we wait for the weekend?

 

I mean, usually movies are released on Thursdays and/or Fridays. 

 

But it opened on the same day as previous movies in SK. I truly hope that Asia won't follow the same pattern of SK. I always expected Europe/OZ to drop between 50%-60%, but I thought it would have soft drops across Asia, if Asia drops around 40%, then LA will need to come to the rescue. An 48% OS-C drop sounds plausible to me, especially when Pirates is dropping 45%.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It is a very discerning audience too, no ? That can go really high on movie that look good and very low the other way around.

 

Yeah, but they went crazy for previous movies, I don't see why it would be different with this one. 

[BoilingHotCoffee]

This is probably not even gonna hit $150M domestically lol

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

How's things looking in China? Do you still believe in an increase? 

 

Presales will finish around 60% or slightly lower than that. But it could be more walk in friendly. We wont know until how WOM is. Maoyan is predicting similar total to Fate. I think it will be closer to TF4 but could still increase with decent WOM. We will know how things are on friday. 

[Rsyu]

7 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

Yeah, but they went crazy for previous movies, I don't see why it would be different with this one. 

 

A lot of bad will built up from Age of Extinction. 

[bruchav]

Yeah, seems like this movie  it's going to prove that the franchise is in decline. But I think people are overreacting already thinking it's not going to hit $ 800m worldwide,  only when the numbers come out on Sunday that we have a better sense of how much this movie can do.
 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

At this rate, 130m DOM + 240m OS-C + 300m = 670m possibly

[bruchav]

9 minutes ago, firedeep said:

At this rate, 130m DOM + 240m OS-C + 300m = 670m possibly

 

Only 240m Os-China? Seems too low, I know this movie may have a drop compared to the last movie in these markets, but TF4 made $ 538m OS-China. If TF5 make only 240m would be a total disaster.
 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

48 minutes ago, bruchav said:

 

Only 240m Os-China? Seems too low, I know this movie may have a drop compared to the last movie in these markets, but TF4 made $ 538m OS-China. If TF5 make only 240m would be a total disaster.
 

It is decreasing 40% to two-thirds in opened markets in local currency, considering exchange rates... so

[a2k]

TF5's dom will likely be under TF5 China OW.