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CaptainJackSparrow

Transformers: The Last Knight (June 23, 2017)

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3 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

 

Yeah, but drops won't be pretty. Despicable Me 3 and Spidey will kill this movie worldwide.

 

It's summer, movies can exist alongside each other making $$$. Harry Potter Deathly Hallows PT 2 didn't hurt Dark of the Moon much. Both did well over a billion. 

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I don't see how it does 700 WW considering latest from China is 220-230m finish.

 

140 dom + 230 China + 300 OS-Ch = 670 at most IMO.

 

OS-Ch of 300 if anything is optimistic.

OS-Ch opening weekend was only 73 (196 OS-123 China) with a lot of markets accounted for.

Edited by a2knet
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5 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

 

It's summer, movies can exist alongside each other making $$$. Harry Potter Deathly Hallows PT 2 didn't hurt Dark of the Moon much. Both did well over a billion. 

 

 

Transformers 4 only made 1 billion thanks to China's grosses ( almost 400 million ).

 

However, the fifth movie is dropping everywhere, including China. It's also a domestic flop.

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9 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

 

Transformers 4 only made 1 billion thanks to China's grosses ( almost 400 million ).

 

However, the fifth movie is dropping everywhere, including China. It's also a domestic flop.

 

I mean franchise fatigue will certainly set in if you don't change the style much. The 5th film of a franchise still doing $600M+ WW ain't half bad. 

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34 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

600 m is way under TASM2 plus Paramount only gets a small percentage of China's BO.

 

I don't know how similar those 2 case are but they could be (deadline seem to be using the same kind of deal Sony have with Marvel for merchandising than Paramount with Hasbro, a bonus that cap at 30m depending on the BO to have made a movie), not too dissimilar domestic/ww ratio either.

 

Amazing Spider man is a good example that show how the margin got smaller for Hollywood since before 2012.

 

Per sony estimate:

 

Amazing Spider-Man 

At break even point

Net direct Production cost: 261.712 million

Releasing costs: 269.59 million

Participation bonus: 34.25 million

Overhead: 26.17 million

 

Estimated break even point:

170dbo/390intl = 560 million WW for total revenues of 613.7 million

 

15% ROI (108 million in profit) should hit at 740m WW.

 

 

At that time a movie with a production + bonus cost around 300 million and a over 200 million world release P&A needed around 560 millionWW to break even, they expected to get 59% of the domestic box office and to make 45% of the revenue from theatrical.

 

Market changed quite a bit, for Amazing Spider Man 2:

 

At break even point

Net direct Production cost: 260.95 million

Releasing costs: 242.58 million

Participation bonus: 39.5 million

Overhead:  31.21 million

 

A bit cheaper, but much higher estimated needed break even point:

216.7dbo/400intl = 616.7 million for total revenues of 578.38 million

 

And the co-financier are still loosing around 10 million at that point.

 

I imagine transformer also went from a Dvd best sellers to a much lower after market business and that 600m would have been really great for a movie like that in 2006 or even 2010, not so much now specially by being so much China heavy, it could be a money looser if you adds the performance of everyone involved together at a 600m WW box office.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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19 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

The most shocking thing about this movie is China's numbers, I knew it had a chance at decreasing, but I never expected it to drop THAT hard, any explanation for this? @keysersoze123

 

One possible explanation is the level of effort T4 made for that market, setting a massive part of the story there, multiple products from China involved, casting what I think was a big star at the time in Bingbing Li.

 

I have not seen T5 but it does not seem to have push for the China market as much.

 

Combining that with terrible reviews and a market that surprisingly (to many) stagnated since 2015, we should have expected the possibility of a significant drop even before the ticket pre-sales indicated that it would be the case.

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2 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

One possible explanation is the level of effort T4 made for that market, setting a massive part of the story there, multiple products from China involved, casting what I think was a big star at the time in Bingbing Li.

 

I have not seen T5 but it does not seem to have push for the China market as much.

 

Combining that with terrible reviews and a market that surprisingly (to many) stagnated since 2015, we should have expected the possibility of a significant drop even before the ticket pre-sales indicated that it would be the case.

 

Thanks! Yeah, I always had that thought on my mind that the fourth movie was a phenomenon there and that the fifth one wouldn't surpass it, but people here made it looked like it was impossible to decrease, so I turned my mind, I shouldn't have made this, alhough, otherwise I wouldn't be so disappointed as I am now.

 

Decreasing even in China is pretty much the kiss of death of this franchise, it will be impossible to they keep the franchise alive when even it's biggest market abandoned it. 

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2 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

Thanks! Yeah, I always had that thought on my mind that the fourth movie was a phenomenon there and that the fifth one wouldn't surpass it, but people here made it looked like it was impossible to decrease, so I turned my mind, I shouldn't have made this, alhough, otherwise I wouldn't be so disappointed as I am now.

 

We will need to adjust, before mid 2016 I pretty much always expected a grow from every new entry popular franchise in China, we need to expect them to sometime drop hard or just stay flat.

 

Those franchise getting huge jump between a 2011 or before release to 2013 and after release because of some market explosion (and in some Case 3D) kind of blurred or expectation, usually franchise movie goes down not up, that was maybe just an unique phase.

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The fifth installment in Michael Bay's critically maligned, commercially smash-successful franchise opened to a huge $123 million in the Middle Kingdom. And yet, some in the market might view that tally as just a touch disappointing. Going into the summer, the big question for China industry watchers was whether Universal's Fast 8 or Paramount's T5 would emerge as 2017's local box-office champ. It's now clear that Vin Diesel and co. have the title locked up: The Fate of the Furious opened to $190 million on its way to a historic $393 million China haul.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-transformers-5-opens-huge-123m-but-can-hold-1016613

 

Paramount can invite Vin Diesel+Jason Statham+Dawn Johnson if they wanna save this franchise:sarah:

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5 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

The most shocking thing about this movie is China's numbers, I knew it had a chance at decreasing, but I never expected it to drop THAT hard, any explanation for this? @keysersoze123

 

May be the chinese audience did not like this one unlike previous movies. It has the worst rating by far. so its cratering in china. 

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41 minutes ago, rickfox said:

 

You mean the final figure will even lower than 765M WW?

 

It will most certainly be lower than that, in fact, it probably will come in lower than even 665M WW, I think it'll do 620 to 630M depending on OS-China, we already have DOM estimated at 140M and China between 220-230M, not much room for change between the two major markets.

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5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

It will most certainly be lower than that, in fact, it probably will come in lower than even 665M WW, I think it'll do 620 to 630M depending on OS-China, we already have DOM estimated at 140M and China between 220-230M, not much room for change between the two major markets.

This is crazy, I never thought that Pirates had a chance of beating Transformers WW but now it looks like it will end in the 750-770 million range and T5 will gross 700m at best.

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