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DESPICABLE ME III | 770.2 M overseas ● 1034.8 M worldwide

By kayumanggi, in International Box Office

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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

Posted
Posted

All right, let’s analyze DM3’s chances for a billion by running the numbers from this week.

Like last week, I calculated and cross-checked how much Minions had done OS in 2015 exchange rates versus how much DM3 has done in 2017 exchange rates in the exact same markets, same release points (number of weekends). 

 

Overseas Results:

 

Minions: $661.953 million OS so far 

(in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

DM3: $640.7 million OS so far (3.2% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

(latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

*Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

 

As with last week, DM3 is still around 3.2% behind Minions OS total unadjusted. (last week it was actualy 3.3% behind DM3 so it improved by 0.01% this week)

 

Mathematically most likely case based on DM3 vs Minions comps: Using @peludo’s 779m adjusted total for Minions, DM3 can then end up with 96.8% x 779 = 754m OS. Combined with around 260 domestic, that gives us: 260 + 754 = 1,013B WW.

Worst case: if the film drops 50% week-on-week every week from now on, it gets to 970.5m WW.

Realistic case: So far, the film has been dropping around 40% drop on average every week. If it keeps this pace, this gives it around 997m WW. (We can consider this 1B given the extra change it can make from there).

 

Using @Rth Homecoming’s estimate of 730m+ OS, combined with the 260+m DOM, this gives us 990+m WW. Same as the analysis above. @Rth Homecoming- if you have an updated OS estimate other than 730+, let us know.

 

@Omni I wouldn’t call 1B an official lock just yet but I agree that it has a good chance of happening (Deadline thinks 1B won’t happen). However, your prediction of 1.032 B seems a bit high using the model I used above, but then again I did not calculate it market by market (like you did last week) so your projection could be more accurate and mine could be a bit off the mark. It is mainly based on how Minions and DM3 are performing every week against each other.

CC: @FantasticBeasts@Stutterng baumer Denbrough@grim22

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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

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Posted (edited)

DM3 Numbers are here!

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:  $247,667,655    26.9%
+ Foreign:  $672,600,000    73.1%
= Worldwide:  $920,267,655

 

 

With a total of WW as of this weekend, DESPICABLE ME is:

-          The ONLY animated franchise in history to have THREE films score over $900 million worldwide (Minions: 1.16B, DM2: 975m and DM3 so far).

Shrek has 1 film that achieved that, Dory has 2, Ice Age has 0, Toy Story has 1.

-          The ONLY animated franchise in history to have THREE films in the TOP TEN highest grossing animated films of all-time list (Minions in 2nd place, DM2 in 6th and DM3 in 9th).

Shrek has 1 film in the list, Ice Age has 0, Dory has 2, Toy Story has 1.

-          The HIGHEST GROSSING animated franchise OF ALL TIME with $3.B!

Second place goes to Shrek. Third place goes to Ice Age.

Edited by MinaTakla
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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

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SCREEN

Illumination’s Despicable Me 3 grossed $15m in 64 territories this weekend for a total of $672.6m. With $247.7m from North America, the worldwide total is $920.3m.

Despicable Me 3 is now the sixth-highest-grossing animated film of all time at the international box office. In Japan, Despicable Me 3 held second place in its fourth weekend, grossing $4m for  $39m.

Germany produced $2.1m in its sixth weekend for $38m. Also in week six, France produced $1.6m for a total of $36.2m, while South Korea held at number four in its third weekend, generating  $1.4m for $19.6m to date.

Elsewhere, the UK generated $1m for $54.7m. China is the top market on $151m, Brazil stands at $38.2m, Mexico $34.7m, Russia $25.4m, and Australia $24.8m. The animation opens in Italy this week.

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

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Posted
On 7/8/2017 at 7:06 AM, MinaTakla said:

So Deadline doesn't think DM3 will get to a billion. They say 900s but not 1B.

 

Because they're dumb. They are used to giving a 3.5x multiplier or so to most films, so they obviously can't see DM3 making 1B with 920M in the bank, off a 18M WW weekend and with just one relevant market remaining. 1B is 100% locked.

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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

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@Omni Deadline finally admitted 1B can happen in their new write up just now.

 

DESPICABLE ME 3

Universal Pictures

Illumination/Universal’s threequel heisted its way to another $15M in 64 markets this frame for an overseas cume of $672.6Mand a global $920.3M. Speculation that the film would not get to the $1B mark is looking questionable at this point as the Kyle Balda/Pierre Coffin-helmed franchise entry has a chance to get there with continued play and a trio of markets — including Italy — still to go.

 

The Steve Carell-starrer has become the No. 6 highest-grossing animated film of all time at the International box office, overtaking Toy Story 3 this week.

Also notable, it had a No. 2 hold in Japan during the 4th session for $39M to date. Other key cumes include the UK’s $54.7M after seven frames, Brazil’s $38.2M, Germany’s $38M, France’s $36.2M, and Mexico’s $34.7M.

In China, DM3 has crossed $150M to clock $151M in the middle of this long blackout period. Italy is on deck for August 24.

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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Asyulus said:

Thoughts? @peludo @Rth Atmos  @MinaTakla

 

Remaining Markets (DOM included): 920+24+15+9+6+4+2.5+1.5+1+0.64+.39+.24+.16+.07= $984.5m

 

Italy + Turkey + Greece = I'll be conservative and say 20+1.5+1.5 = $23m

 

$984.5m + $23m = $1,007,500,000 WW

I will run the numbers closely later today after actuals come in and will offer a more detailed mathematical analysis like I did last week.

But I agree with your total above. However, Italy + T+ Greece may do a bit more than 23m, more like 26-28.

Cars 3 did 3m in Turkey alone. Minions did 30m+ in these 3 markets.

 

Edited by MinaTakla
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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

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Posted

You are forgetting that a good half of DM3's WW weekend came from Japan, Germany and North America, three markets that are known for their strong late legs. 1B can be done even without the remaining markets. Especially considering that - again - there will be NO competition.

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