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DESPICABLE ME III | 770.2 M overseas ● 1034.8 M worldwide

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All right, here’s this week’s analysis DM3’s chances for a billion.

Interestingly, DM3 made some gains on Minions and reduced the 3.2% gap between them in total OS grosses in same point of release. Now the gap is 2.7% after being 3.3% last week.

 

Like every week, I calculated and cross-checked how much Minions had done OS in 2015 exchange rates versus how much DM3 has done in 2017 exchange rates in the exact same markets, same release points (number of weekends). 

 

Overseas Results:

 

Minions: $691.66 million OS so far 

(in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

DM3$673.3 million OS so far (2.7% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

(latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

*Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

 

 

Mathematically most likely case based on DM3 vs Minions comps: Using @peludo’s 779m adjusted total for Minions, DM3 can then end up with 97.3% x 779 = 758m OS. Combined with around 260 domestic, that gives us: 260 + 758 = 1,018B WW.

Worst case: if the film drops 50% week-on-week every week from now on, it gets to 990m WW.

Realistic case: So far, the film has been dropping between 35% to 40% drop on average every week. If it keeps this pace, this gives it around 1.010B WW.

 

Using @Rth Homecoming’s estimate of 730m+ OS, combined with the 260+m DOM, this gives us 990+m WW. Same as the analysis above once again. 

 

CC: @Omni@Stutterng baumer Denbrough@FantasticBeasts@Asyulus

Edited by MinaTakla
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DM3 is now at 948.44m WW. It has added 27.44m approx in the last 7 days. 

Last week, it added 39.5m in the previous 7 days. 

This is a drop of only -30%. Thanks to Obon boost, it has had its best week-to-week drop ever since its launch.

Italy, Greece and Turkey are yet to open.

Tomorrow after actuals come in, I will post my weekly analysis of its 1B chances compared to Minions.

 

Edited by MinaTakla
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I missed this big achievement for DM3!!

Despicable Me franchise has just inched past the Ice Age franchise to become the highest-grossing animated film franchise of all time at the international box office.

 

DEADLINE

Internationally, the Despicable Me franchise has just inched past the Ice Age franchise to become the highest-grossing animated film franchise of all time at the international box office. The Illumination Entertainment/Universal family franchise Despicable Mehas grossed $2.428B to date whereas Fox’s Ice Agefranchise sits at $2.427B. Last week, (Aug. 6) the franchise of yellow fellows franchise passed the green ogre Shrek franchise to become the highest grossing animated film franchise globally. What does the Despicable and the Ice Age franchises have in common? Illumination founder and CEO Chris Meledandri. Despicable Me 3 is now the third Illumination title to gross over $900M. Despicable Me 3 is also the highest-grossing movie this summer and the third-highest grossing film overall so far in 2107.

In addition, since the release of The Secret Life of Pets in July of last year, Illumination now has had three of the top four highest-grossing animated films (along with Sing) and the second-largest animated film of all time with Minions. ‎

Universal has been enjoying the run of Despicable Me 3 which is not in the billion dollar club, but has an impressive worldwide total right now of $948.4M. Overall, combined with the studio’s domestic total of $1.4 billion, Universal’s 2017 global box office is $4.4 billion to date. And climbing. The studio reached the $4B milestone in July of this year, driven largely not only by DM3, but also by The Fate of the Furiouswhich ended its run with a whopping $1.238B.

 

http://deadline.com/2017/08/despicable-me-franchise-top-ani-franchise-internationally-wonder-woman-800-million-worldwide-wolf-warrior-2-china-hitmans-bodyguard-logan-lucky-1202152524/

 

Edited by MinaTakla
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DHD

DESPICABLE ME 3

As we said above, this weekend’s performance of Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3helped its distributor Universal Pictures climb past the $3B mark internationally. It also became the top-grossing animated franchise abroad. And this weekend, it — like Dunkirk — took in an estimated $8.4M. That gross came from 58 territories to raise its international total to $696.7M and a worldwide cume so far of $948.4M.

There were no new openings this weekend so we’ll look at the holdover markets. In Japan, DM3 is still No. 2 after its 5th weekend in play; it grossed $2.3M for a total of $50.1M. It is the highest grossing Illumination film of all time in this market. In China, it has a cume of $151.9M and is the second highest grossing animated film of all time in China behind only Zootopia ($235M). In other markets: U.K. and Ireland $56.7M; Germany $39.5M; Brazil $38.7M; France $37.7M; Mexico$34.8M; Russia $25.7M; Australia $25M; Argentina $23.6M; Spain $22.3M; Korea $21M; Netherlands $11.1M; Poland $9.2M; Chile $7.3M and Colombia$7M.

There are three more territories yet to come: Italy on Aug. 24; Turkey the following day and then Greece on Aug. 31.

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Here’s my analysis of DM3’s 1B chances for this week after actuals have come in.

Two mathematical highlights this week: (1) DM3 had its best week-to-week drop ever since its launch thanks to Obon holidays in Japan.

(2) For the second week in a row, DM3 continued to close the OS gap between it and Minions. After being around 3.3% behind Minions OS at the exact same markets and at the exact point in their runs, DM3 became just 2.7% behind it last week. This week, the film continued to close the gap. DM3 is now only 2.1% behind Minions OS at the exact point in their runs.

Overseas Results:

Minions: $712.875 million OS so far 

(in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

DM3$697.83 million OS so far (2.1% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

(latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

*Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

 

Mathematically most likely case based on DM3 vs Minions comps: Using Peludo’s 779m adjusted total for Minions, DM3 can then end up with 97.9% x 779 = 762.5m OS. Combined with around 260 domestic, that gives us: 260 + 762.5 = 1,022.5B WW.

Worst case: if the film drops 50% week-on-week every week from now on, it gets to 1.008B WW.

Realistic case: So far, the film has been dropping around 40% drop on average every week. If it keeps this pace, this gives it around 1.020B WW.

 

CC: @Omni@a2knet@FantasticBeasts@Asyulus@Stutterng baumer Denbrough

 

Edited by MinaTakla
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On 20/8/2017 at 9:33 PM, Asyulus said:

WW analysis: 948.4 + 17.8 + 11.23 + 6.8 + 4.5 + 3.1 + 2.2 + 1.4 + 0.8 + 0.5 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.15 + 0.08 + 0.04 + 26 (Italy) + 2.4 (Greece) + 4.1 (Turkey) = $1.030b

You can't give average weekly drops like that. This past week has been hugely boosted by holidays in Japan, and they're over. I guess a 14/15M week (ITaly's opening excluded) is way more likely (6.5M WW weekend or around there). However, after that, weekly drops will improve a lot, as a bigger and bigger part of the OS late gross will come from Japan. 25% drops are reasonable, ergo:

14.5 + 10.5 + 8.0 + 6.0 + 4.5 + 3.5 + 2.5 + 1.8 + 1.4 + 1.0 + (3M more) = 1.006B just from holdovers.

 

I confirm my 1.032B projection.

Edited by Omni
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