July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[Marek the Jedi]

damm I feel so oooooooooooooold lol

I started checking B.O. around INDY 3 and BATMAN in 1989, when I've got interesting article mentioning so called RENTALS from BoxOffice, and of course as huge SW fan, I saw SW behind E.T. in rentals .......... that year (1989) I became fan of BOX OFFICE ;).....

Marek

 

[EmpireCity]

My math sucks, but here you go.....

 

$9.5m for Dory

$8m for Tarzan

$5m for Independence Day

$4.6m for The Purge

$4m for BFG

 

Most came in way above estimates.  

[baumer]

No updates @nilephelan

[Chaz]

11 hours ago, Rth said:

lol you feel old..boy I started later 70's, use to put out estimates, actuals etc far back as early 90's (In fact years later BOM took over some). I should have had shares in BOM was dealing with Brandon Gray when he was at Uni and BOM was a pipe dream gave him lot info pre-post BOM starting, along with lot of the other sites.

 

Weekend estimates online been around since around 89-91/2 (Before WWW  through services like AOL, Compuserve), Friday estimates on Sat morning been around since at least mid 90's (public, longer for industry only)

I would bottom for you so hard.

[Chaz]

Dory has the second-biggest gross ever for a non-opening film over the July 4th holiday, behind only Transformers 2.

 

Transformers was in its second weekend. Dory is in its fourth. Crazy.

[POTUS 2020]

ID2 got a namesake holiday boost after all, but not like Mothers Day

However, like MD, its all shit flowing downhill from here. next weekend down 60%+

[CJohn]

27 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

My math sucks, but here you go.....

 

$9.5m for Dory

$8m for Tarzan

$5m for Independence Day

$4.6m for The Purge

$4m for BFG

 

Most came in way above estimates.  

Those are some massive jumps.

 

Except for The BFG  

[fmpro]

35 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

My math sucks, but here you go.....

 

$9.5m for Dory

$8m for Tarzan

$5m for Independence Day

$4.6m for The Purge

$4m for BFG

 

Most came in way above estimates.  

 

Look at that ID:R increase over estimates 

Great for Tarzan too

[Noctis]

$47m 4-day weekend for Tarzan...way way way way above expectations and its IM has been really good. 

[RyneOh1040]

9 hours ago, Gopher said:

Dory - this is the only summer film that has ignited any interest. This year more than any shows when a family film clicks with audiences you can look forward to the money coming in for months to come. Not every animated movie can do it (poor Angry Birds barely cracked a hundred mil) but all of a sudden it feels like the average Disney animated pic can crack 300 no problem. Look forward to that happening with Pets and Moana to some degree as well. 

 

Tarzan - the luckiest flop of the whole summer. BFG stole all the article headlines and it even came in a couple notches above tracking. And budget aside 39 mil is a huge accomplishment for a Tarzan reboot that looked this milquetoast and had seemingly no buzz. I guess sometimes the name is actually enough? I'm curious to see what legs look like, its IM seems really good. I guess you always need a couple movies in the middle to balance the marketplace. 

 

Purge - the new Saw. These things make their budgets back before the film is playing for 18 hours. I guess the only question is if they'll go back to once a year or keep it every other year. Either way Uni is smart to keep them in the summer, this is the first moneymaker they've had all year. 

 

BFG - this one is sad. Over a year ago I thought Spielberg, Dahl and Disney (not Touchstone, like Bridge of Spies or Lincoln) sounded like a really strange mix of sensibilities. A month ago I compared it to Alice 2 in that Disney really had no stake in this film being a success since Amblin split from Disney and the Mouse had far bigger priorities this summer. At the same time giant ugly Mark Rylance is not and will never be a summer movie selling point, and this needed outright raves from critics to convince families it was actually worth the money (not universal cries that this was minor Spielberg). Good news for the Beard is that Ready Player One has everything in its place to be a huge huge success (and Indiana Jones 5 is a license to print money). 

 

IDR - in the summer of bombs this feels like the biggest swing and miss. 105 mil domestic and 350 mil worldwide is a third of the '96 film's UNADJUSTED gross. To think some of us including myself were calling 300 mil for this a couple months ago. 

 

Swiss Army Man - this is the best movie of the summer and deserves more than an ok-ish wide expansion. Nothing is going to come close. The Daniels are going to become the Lord and Miller of the industry pretty soon. 

i really, really, like this analysis (SAM is also my favorite of the year so far) but I do disagree with Angry Birds.  Comparing it to the Disney cannon is non sensical and I honestly think it's actually a pretty big success.  It had all the makings to be a huge flop (just the concept in itself is so nuts) but it's going to finish around 350 on a 75 million budget and that's nothing to scoff at.  I legitimately thought it would struggle to hit 50 domestic even up until OW.  But yeah, great analysis.

[stripe]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Tarzan will fall ~50% from the 3-day 38.5m OW. So best to keep expectations sub-15m for the next weekend. The weekdays will be very good throughout the run though. I am less optimistic than some and thinking 110m dom at most. Even with a 180m budget that looks ok compared to some disappointments this year and WB bombs last year. 110m dom / 400m ww on a 180m budget is on path to break even.

 

Even dropping to 15M (a steep -60%) Tarzan would gross +85M in 10 days. That puts it on track to 115-120M.

 

Given the IM through this long weekend and that in next weekend there's not new direct competition, I am thinking a 19-20M second weekend is on the cards.

 

 

 

 

 

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, stripe said:

 

Even dropping to 15M (a steep -60%) Tarzan would gross +85M in 10 days. That puts it on track to 115-120M.

 

Given the IM through this long weekend and that in next weekend there's not new direct competition, I am thinking a 19-20M second weekend is on the cards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Even dropping to 15M (a steep -60%) Tarzan would gross +85M in 10 days. That puts it on track to 115-120M.

 

Given the IM through this long weekend and that in next weekend there's not new direct competition, I am thinking a 19-20M second weekend is on the cards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I miscalculated the drop. 50% of 38.5m is 19.25m. I used 14.25m.

It should do 15m+ easily over the weekend.

Edited July 5, 2016 by a2knet

[baumer]

That's huge for Dory and Tarzan and Holy Crap for Purge.. that's enormous

[fastclock]

So, it looks like many people went to the cinema on the 4th of July this year.

Good numbers all around.

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, nilephelan said:

My math sucks, but here you go.....

 

$9.5m for Dory

$8m for Tarzan

$5m for Independence Day

$4.6m for The Purge

$4m for BFG

 

Most came in way above estimates.  

Just a 27.7% Sun.-Mon. drop for Dory. Much less than Cars 2's 39.3% drop. Dory is down only 7.1% from last Mon. whereas Cars 2 was down 23% from its previous Mon.

Edited July 5, 2016 by FlashMaster659

[narniadis]

Service announcement: NO Tuesday increases especially after Monday being much better. The best a film can hope for is to be flat. 

 

This will be followed by normal-30% drops on Wednesday. 

[a2k]

Provided FSS remains the same,

DORY will go from 50.2 to 51

TARZAN will go from 45.5 to 46.5

PURGE will go from 34.8 to 36

BFG will go from 22.27 to 22.55

IDR will go 20.2 to 21.5 (Monday goes from 3.65 to 5!)

Edited July 5, 2016 by a2knet

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, nilephelan said:

My math sucks, but here you go.....

 

$9.5m for Dory

$8m for Tarzan

$5m for Independence Day

$4.6m for The Purge

$4m for BFG

 

Most came in way above estimates.  

Holy crap at that IDR increase.

[a2k]

APOC is on 529m WW (not sure if that includes this weekend's OS). I don't think much left in the tank OS...sub 550m WW is below expectations considering DOFP did 515m OS. But on a 178m budget it's a solid number considering no Wolverine.