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BOT User Tracking 7/8-1 Mike and Dave, Secret Life of Pets

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Oops, sorry. Forgot to get to this on Monday so I'm belatedly doing it now.


Secret Life of Pets

Prediction: 77.5M +/- 8.27M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 104.4M (off by 26.9M, so 3.25 stndev)

Wow. Nice job, SLOP. Our predict was a bomb, but so was everyone else's and we were the middle of a tightly grouped pack. I'm ok taking some egg when it comes to a movie being beating expectations like this. And no, no one obviously saw this coming as our highest predict was 90M by Impact (who was obviously the closest).


I saw it and thought it was good, but what sticks to me more than anything here is the importance of a great trailer. IMO, that bit of the teaser with the poodle rocking out provided SLOP's "must see" movement, and even thought it was about 5 seconds long, I bet it added $20+M to the OW. Ghostbusters, on the other hand, pretty much screwed the pooch on its first two trailers and turned in a C+ effort on the 3rd one. Since the reviews suggest its a competent or possibly even good remake of one of the most beloved comedies of all time (and everyone's forgotten about Ghostbusters 2), the potential was there for this to be huge had it not been sandbagged by its trailers.


Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Prediction: 13M +/- 2.77M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 16.6M (off by 3.6M, so 1.3 stndev)

Quite a mediocre predict, salvaged only slightly by the fact that we were roughly in the middle of the pack among predicting sites. I haven't seen it, but I was mildly amused to read that it was more or less based on a true story. They should have made more of that in the marketing. Then again, it did quite a bit better than most were expecting so perhaps they knew what they were doing. Best predict was by goldenstate5 at 16m.

Edited by Wrath
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