Wednesday #s: Dory $6.4M, Tarzan $4.3M, Purge $3.2M, BFG $2.66M

[WrathOfHan]

Remember when CW was outselling AOU on Fandango? Remember when Angry Birds was outselling HT2 on Fandango? Outselling previous movies in the genre on Fandango doesn't mean shit.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I don't think it'll hurt Dory all that much. Families will ultimately see Dory if Secret Life Of Pets is overcrowded or sold out. I'm thinking that Dory has a similar drop to that of Inside Out when Minions exploded onto the scene.

[a2k]

SLOP looking at 79m OW according to proBO.

IO's multiplier was 3.96x.

If SLOP does 3.8x with 79.0m it gets 300.2m.

 

Even today, that's how difficult 300m dom is.

(thinking 75m/3.75x/281m)

[mahnamahna]

13 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

Will this ultimately hurt FD getting to $500m USdom?? 

No  It'll hold nicely next weekend against Ghostbusters (20-30% drop wouldn't surprise me) and after IA5, it'll have solid holds pretty much until Labor Day (Aug 19-21 being the exception). 
 

 

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I don't think it'll hurt Dory all that much. Families will ultimately see Dory if Secret Life Of Pets is overcrowded or sold out. I'm thinking that Dory has a similar drop to that of Inside Out when Minions exploded onto the scene.

 

 

It helps that both target slightly different demographics.

 

Dory focuses more on teens/adults nostalgic about the original, while Pets is strictly targeting the new generation of kids. Similar to TS3/DM1 and IO/Minions, they both should be able to coexist and do $300 million+ DOM. 

 

35-45% 4th weekend drop for Dory and a $75-90 million OW for Pets is certainly doable (happened for IO despite a $115 million OW for Minions).

Edited July 7, 2016 by mahnamahna

[WrathOfHan]

It's going to be very hard for SLOP to get anything higher than a 3.5x. Illumination is 1/5 on getting multis above a 3.1x (not counting DM2) and while I don't think SLOP goes that low I also don't see it going that high; older audiences have a lot of movies to see over the next few weeks and SLOP won't be one of their first choices.

[Fullbuster]

Dory Will pass Frozen today

 

And no matter what happens with Pets : It will be the biggest animated movie ever, passing Shrek

[grim22]

Anyone know how Sultan did yesterday in previews? Saw it in a sold out theater yesterday.

[James]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Remember when CW was outselling AOU on Fandango? Remember when Angry Birds was outselling HT2 on Fandango? Outselling previous movies in the genre on Fandango doesn't mean shit.

You seriously have a problem with this movie. A few hours ago you were telling me to take a look at the buzz and tracking thread. Now you have evidence of that tracking and still dismiss it. But no matter, on it's way to becoming the biggest animation studio Illumination has to have some haters.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, James said:

You seriously have a problem with this movie. A few hours ago you were telling me to take a look at the buzz and tracking thread. Now you have evidence of that tracking and still dismiss it. But no matter, on it's way to becoming the biggest animation studio Illumination has to have some haters.

So tempering high expectations makes me have a problem with the movie?  

 

ok maybe a slight grudge

[a2k]

DORY's animation record seems like it will stand for a long long time.

Which animation in the next few years can take it down?

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's going to be very hard for SLOP to get anything higher than a 3.5x. Illumination is 1/5 on getting multis above a 3.1x (not counting DM2) and while I don't think SLOP goes that low I also don't see it going that high; older audiences have a lot of movies to see over the next few weeks and SLOP won't be one of their first choices.

 

The reviews aren't strong enough for a Zoo type multi. I'll say it'll have a slightly higher multi than the Lorax. It'll do well but I don't see it crossing $300m. 

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DORY's animation record seems like it will stand for a long long time.

Which animation in the next few years can take it down?

Possibly Frozen 2. 

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DORY's animation record seems like it will stand for a long long time.

Which animation in the next few years can take it down?

Zootopia 2. Seriously.

 

edit:

 

But it would be a long shot, and it's not even a confirmed movie anyways. Gotta wait until 2021 or 2022.

Edited July 7, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Possibly Frozen 2. 

Yeah, but it might get released on a Wednesday. It would upset the record.

[James]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

The reviews aren't strong enough for a Zoo type multi. I'll say it'll have a slightly higher multi than the Lorax. It'll do well but I don't see it crossing $300m. 

Despicable Me 1 and 2 had pretty much the same legs as Zootopia. DM1 got 81% on RT. DM2 got 73%. Pets is at 79%. So I really don't see your point.

[mahnamahna]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DORY's animation record seems like it will stand for a long long time.

Which animation in the next few years can take it down?

 

Other than Frozen 2, I don't really think there's a sequel that could touch $500 million+ DOM. DORY is benefiting from being the solid follow-up to Pixar's most popular and beloved film. 

 

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

The reviews aren't strong enough for a Zoo type multi. I'll say it'll have a slightly higher multi than the Lorax. It'll do well but I don't see it crossing $300m. 

 

$75 million OW on its way to $250-280 million DOM sounds about where it should end up. July 2016 could end up being pretty solid aside from BFG doing sub-$100 million. 

[Gamb1993]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DORY's animation record seems like it will stand for a long long time.

Which animation in the next few years can take it down?

Maybe Toy Story 4, or Incredibles 2.

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, James said:

Despicable Me 1 and 2 had pretty much the same legs as Zootopia. DM1 got 81% on RT. DM2 got 73%. Pets is at 79%. So I really don't see your point.

DM2's 5 day had a 2.57x. Had it been a 3 day weekend it would have been between 2.9-3.2x.

[mahnamahna]

12 minutes ago, James said:

Despicable Me 1 and 2 had pretty much the same legs as Zootopia. DM1 got 81% on RT. DM2 got 73%. Pets is at 79%. So I really don't see your point.

Despicable Me 1 benefited from a smaller OW, stellar WOM (from GAs, not critics) and less kiddie competition. Plus, the Minions felt fresh 6 years ago.

 

DM1:

TS3 ($76 million)+Airbender ($31 million)+Sorcerer's ($63 million)+Ramona ($26 million)+C&D2 ($43 million)+Nanny McPhee 2 ($29 million)=$268 million DOM 

 

Pets:

Dory ($100 million)+BFG ($35 million)+Ice Age 5 ($115 million)+Nine Lives ($30 million)+Pete's Dragon ($100 million)+Kubo ($80 million)=$465 million DOM

 

Even with inflation included, that's still $130-160 million more than DM1's competition back in 2010. 

 

Despicable Me 2's multi is skewed because of the 5-day opening. It would have opened to around Minions' OW ($105-115 million) if it didn't open on a Wednesday and ended up with a 3.1x-3.4x. 

 

Pets would be doing well to get a 3.2x-3.5x IMO. 

Edited July 7, 2016 by mahnamahna

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, James said:

Despicable Me 1 and 2 had pretty much the same legs as Zootopia. DM1 got 81% on RT. DM2 got 73%. Pets is at 79%. So I really don't see your point.

Despicable Me 2 was released on a Wednesday, so the multiplier isn't that comparable.