Weekend Estimates (Page 92): Pets 103.2M (biggest OW ever for an original movie) | Tarzan 20.6M | Dory 20.3M | M&D 16.6M

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

If a movie makes money, it is a good idea. And by the looks of it, LOT will end up making WB money. It will most likely break-even theatrical (or just below break-even) and the ancillaries will carry it from there. Literally no one expected it to do as well as it has been doing. I'm sure WB had the write-down on it all ready to go before it just seemed to catch on for some reason.

It is not exactly exploding OS. 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

It is not exactly exploding OS. 

 

Won't need to explode in the end. It hasn't even released in the bigger markets of Europe and South America yet. Italy, Germany, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, China and Japan are still to release. It has 55M OS from current markets, which will most likely get it to 110M OS from those markets, add in 125M+ domestic, maybe 40-50M in China (lowballing it as hell) and 50M from all the remaining markets and it ends with a final tally of 360-400M which while not huge is not a flop either. And these are literally lowballing estimates.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Won't need to explode in the end. It hasn't even released in the bigger markets of Europe and South America yet. Italy, Germany, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, China and Japan are still to release. It has 55M OS from current markets, which will most likely get it to 110M OS from those markets, add in 125M+ domestic, maybe 40-50M in China (lowballing it as hell) and 50M from all the remaining markets and it ends with a final tally of 360-400M which while not huge is not a flop either. And these are literally lowballing estimates.

 

DOM: $125m

O/S:  $110m current + $90m-100m future = $200-210m

 

= $325-335m

 

That projection would put sit not too far off Alice Through The Looking Glass ($170m budget) potential $290m-300m WW and about where the Good Dinosaur wound up. 

Edited July 11, 2016 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

July 8-10 w/e

 

		WW Wknd	Intl Wknd	Dom Cume	WW Cume	Intl Cume	Dom Cume
1	Secret Life Of Pets, The	$110,972,440	$7,800,000	$103,172,440	$145,772,440	$42,600,000	$103,172,440	10
2	Finding Dory	$50,051,000	$29,700,000	$20,351,000	$642,780,243	$220,200,000	$422,580,243	41
3	Legend Of Tarzan, The	$47,615,000	$27,000,000	$20,615,000	$135,412,712	$54,000,000	$81,412,712	47
4	Cold War 2	$44,165,500	$44,000,000	$165,500	$44,165,500	$44,000,000	$165,500	1
5	Ice Age: Collision Course	$32,200,000	$32,200,000		$57,700,000	$57,700,000		25
6	Big Fish & Chinese Flowering Crabapple	$32,000,000	$32,000,000		$32,000,000	$32,000,000		1
7	Independence Day: Resurgence	$29,200,000	$21,500,000	$7,700,000	$305,795,582	$214,300,000	$91,495,582	65
8	So Young 2: Never Gone	$26,000,000	$26,000,000		$26,000,000	$26,000,000		1
9	Mike And Dave Need Wedding Dates	$20,200,000	$3,600,000	$16,600,000	$20,200,000	$3,600,000	$16,600,000	20
10	Central Intelligence	$17,925,000	$9,800,000	$8,125,000	$156,225,338	$47,900,000	$108,325,338	48
11	Purge: Election Year, The	$13,698,645	$2,000,000	$11,698,645	$60,308,920	$2,200,000	$58,108,920	18
12	Sultan	$20,416,475	$18,200,000	$2,216,475	$32,228,560	$29,000,000	$3,228,560	15
13	BFG, The	$12,204,000	$4,600,000	$7,604,000	$50,638,762	$11,900,000	$38,738,762	5
14	TMNT: Out Of The	11,500,000	11,500,000		219,583,801	139,500,000	80,083,801	61
15	Now You See Me 2	11,475,000	10,100,000	1,375,000	238,304,213	176,100,000	62,204,213	69
16	Me Before You	10,931,000	10,500,000	431,000	157,817,134	103,000,000	54,817,134	52
17	Conjuring 2, The	8,645,000	6,900,000	1,745,000	291,973,332	192,600,000	99,373,332	63
18	Shallows, The	7,100,000	2,300,000	4,800,000	48,225,279	2,400,000	45,825,279	10
19	Seondal: The Man Who Sells the River	6,200,000	6,200,000		6,300,000	6,300,000		1
20	Alice Through The Looking Glass	5,670,000	5,500,000	170,000	270,776,996	194,700,000	76,076,996	31
21	Familyhood	3,500,000	3,500,000		9,800,000	9,800,000		3
22	Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	3,500,000	3,500,000		14,300,000	14,300,000		1
23	Rock Dog	3,200,000	3,200,000		3,400,000	3,400,000		1
24	Camping 3	3,200,000	3,200,000		15,700,000	15,700,000		1
25	Warcraft	2,895,825	2,500,000	395,825	429,609,960	383,100,000	46,509,960	57

 

http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Rankings?country=US#1

 

 

 

[baumer]

Anyone who thinks IA5 is going to bomb really needs to go to dictionary.com and look up the term.  

 

IA5 is guaranteed to be a massive hit.  Domestic is just one market.  

[druv10]

59 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

Dory really did took a huge hit? Is 500m still possible?

It is but margin for error is pretty much gone. It needs to stabilize but it can still get there. Hold most everone had was around 23 to 24M so it lost about 3M+ on weekend. 

[baumer]

Tarzan could hit 400 and IDR could hit 400.  In the end, far from great but not the collassal FUBAR everyone thought they would be.

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Tarzan could hit 400 and IDR could hit 400.  In the end, far from great but not the collassal FUBAR everyone thought they would be.

 

I think everyone had IDR hitting at least 400. It is the domestic performance that has been disappointing for it relative to expectations.

[baumer]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

I think everyone had IDR hitting at least 400. It is the domestic performance that has been disappointing for it relative to expectations.

 

Yes, you are correct.  I guess I just mean it won't be the unmitigated disaster that some of us thought it would be once we all saw it.

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Anyone who thinks IA5 is going to bomb really needs to go to dictionary.com and look up the term.  

 

IA5 is guaranteed to be a massive hit.  Domestic is just one market.  

We should also look up the word "massive".

I've heard that it's actually declining significantly from the previous entry. Also, the dollar is stronger as of late.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

I think everyone had IDR hitting at least 400. It is the domestic performance that has been disappointing for it relative to expectations.

 

I think IDR only has Germany, France and Italy left to open in major markets.  If that's right I don't see how it gets to $400m.  Maybe $375m
 

 

 

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Yes, you are correct.  I guess I just mean it won't be the unmitigated disaster that some of us thought it would be once we all saw it.

 

I still can't believe what I saw. Its like all storytelling sense and logical plot were thrown out the window and replaced by screaming... wait SCREAMING!!!!! and one liners tailor made for the trailer.

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

We should also look up the word "massive".

I've heard that it's actually declining significantly from the previous entry. Also, the dollar is stronger as of late.

 

The last one made 877 WW.  If this were to drop to 700, would you not call that massive?  We're talking about a 5th film here.

[Sal]

Not surprised by this opening, sadly.

 

Illumination has Comcast behind it and they're no slouch at finding ways to batter audiences with endless barrages of their upcoming movies.  I talked to theater marketing and basically the tactic of constant shoving something into people's faces is considered one of the most effective.  You just have to wear people down until whatever you're advertising is in the public consciousness and they definitely do that with their animated films.  Illumination basically makes middle of the road animated movies that are generally forgettable but are so well pushed beforehand that they get a lot of attention through their runs.  A couple of years later and a lot of people don't even really remember them.

 

Now if only Illumination would bring that same strong marketing to bear on a movie with with a strong storyline, they'd be a real juggernaut because they'd remain heavily in the public consciousness even when not directly shoving it in people's faces.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I still can't believe what I saw. Its like all storytelling sense and logical plot were thrown out the window and replaced by screaming... wait SCREAMING!!!!! and one liners tailor made for the trailer.

 

It's one of the dumbest movies I've ever seen.  Filled with so much screaming and wooden emotions.  

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

We should also look up the word "massive".

I've heard that it's actually declining significantly from the previous entry. Also, the dollar is stronger as of late.

 

It will be a hit, especially considering it's budget (probably $100m tops) just not as massive as the recent ones.  Its coming out too close to Dory and Pets and with less favorable exchange rates than the previous film.  It opened in Mexico 20% under ID4, in Brazil 25% under and in Germany is projected to make less than a third of ID4.  

 

Though if it decreases $60m in the US and $200 O/S it would still do $600m WW  

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

The last one made 877 WW.  If this were to drop to 700, would you not call that massive?  We're talking about a 5th film here.

Well yes, $700m ww is massive. But it's not clear that it will reach that level.

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I still can't believe what I saw. Its like all storytelling sense and logical plot were thrown out the window and replaced by screaming... wait SCREAMING!!!!! and one liners tailor made for the trailer.

 

Sounds like the presidential campaign.

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, Sal said:

Not surprised by this opening, sadly.

 

Illumination has Comcast behind it and they're no slouch at finding ways to batter audiences with endless barrages of their upcoming movies.  I talked to theater marketing and basically the tactic of constant shoving something into people's faces is considered one of the most effective.  You just have to wear people down until whatever you're advertising is in the public consciousness and they definitely do that with their animated films.  Illumination basically makes middle of the road animated movies that are generally forgettable but are so well pushed beforehand that they get a lot of attention through their runs.  A couple of years later and a lot of people don't even really remember them.

 

Now if only Illumination would bring that same strong marketing to bear on a movie with with a strong storyline, they'd be a real juggernaut because they'd remain heavily in the public consciousness even when not directly shoving it in people's faces.

 

Marketing only works if you have something that is appealing to the public.  They had an appealing concept.  You can spend 500 million on marketing if you want to but if no one is interested then it's a waste of money.  Pets was a good premise and it's something people were interested in.  That's why it blew up.

[Sal]

2 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Marketing only works if you have something that is appealing to the public.  They had an appealing concept.  You can spend 500 million on marketing if you want to but if no one is interested then it's a waste of money.  Pets was a good premise and it's something people were interested in.  That's why it blew up.

 

It's a good premise but Illumination is absolutely a company that plays it safe in every way. They don't take risks.  There's not much they produce that steps outside the realm of being just general appeal to have much lasting effect.  They're taking a middle of the road product and making it big with marketing. I agree you can't generally take a piece of shit and effectively use marketing to make it a gold brick, but you very much can with a good-but-not-great movie (especially one where they can appeal to kids).

 

But in two or three years, will people even remember this movie existed or will it be another Hop or Lorax?