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BOT User Tracking 7/22-24 Ice Age, Lights Out, Star Trek

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Another fun weekend and we've got a 3rd coming up! Good times! I love summer.


Please provide your 7/22-24 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Ice Age

Lights Out

Star Trek


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Weird that Star Trek doesn't amp up more interest, both here and among the general audience. Critics like it and it should do well enough to be significant at the box office. Trekkies are over-represented among critics and under-represented here? Who knows? Anyway, we're very pessimistic about Ice Age, extremely optimistic on Lights Out, and almost exactly in the middle on Star Trek compared to other sites.


Also, we are *extraordinarily* confident about our Star Trek predict. Maybe that's why we're not excited about it? We all agree that we know exactly how its going to do? Usually this sort of confidence presages a train-wreck so buckle your seat-belt.


In positive news, MovieWeb.com's nutzo predictions are starting to occasionally hit the mark (they were the only ones to predict over $5M for Infiltrator). If they keep this up, they might get to stop being the butt of the occasional joke.


As usual, I totaled all predicts (19 for everything) and here are the results: 


Ice Age

Mean: 26.6M

Median: 26M

StnDev: 4.27M (revised StnDev: 4.64M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 16.43%

High: 32.3M

Low: 17M


BO.com 33M

Deadline 33M

MovieWeb 31.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 35.5M

Variety 25M


Lights Out

Mean: 21.5M

Median: 21.4M

StnDev: 22.35M (revised StnDev: 4.78)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.35%

High: 30M

Low: 13M


BO.com 17M 

Deadline 14M

MovieWeb 12.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 16.5M

Variety 14M


Star Trek

Mean: 58.7M

Median: 60M

StnDev: 4.12M (revised StnDev: 4.42)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 6.86%

High: 66M

Low: 50.9M


BO.com 61M 

Deadline 52M

MovieWeb 71.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 66.5M

Variety 55M

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Ice Age

Prediction: 26.0M +/- 4.27M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 21.37M (off by 4.6M, so 1.08 stndev)

I'm starting to consider being off by 0.8 to 1.0 stndev an "acceptable" predict, so we just barely missed that cut-off. But, since we were the second-best predict after Variety (and us and Variety were much, much closer than anyone else) I'll give it a pass. Best predict was Impact at 20M.

Lights Out

Prediction: 21.4M +/- 4.78M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 21.7M (off by 0.3M, so 0.06 stndev)

Boom!  Bullseye. Great predict. And as an added bonus, no one else was particularly close. About as good as it gets. Arlborn was best predict at 21.4M




Star Trek

Prediction: 60M +/- 4.12M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 59.25M (off by 0.7M, so 0.18 stndev)

Not quite a bullseye, but still an extremely strong predict. And as an added bonus, we were the best predict and by a pretty substantial margin, too. This might have been our best weekend ever in terms of our relative accuracy compared to other sites. Best predict was DAJK at 58.7M.

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