SUICIDE SQUAD WEEKEND THREAD | New REVISED SUNDAY NUMBER 134m FROM GURU ON PG 212 | 267.1M WW OW | Nine Lives 6.5 OW |No Spoilers Allowed!!! | ACCOUNT SALES THIS WEEKEND - see first post for details !!

[Noctis]

48 minutes ago, Baumer said:

When Deathly Hallows 2 dropped 12% from the true Friday to Saturday, no one claimed it had anything to do with WOM.

When it fell 72% and then  54% in the next two weekends, no one said that the creative team should be fired.

DH2 had a 2.25X.  No one said it had anything to do with bad WOM.

 

Movies, especially ones with rabid fan bases, are ridiculously frontloaded now.  This is just another example of it.

 

I think comparing Suicide Squad to the finale of an 8-film YA series isn't quite the same. There is no doubt films are much more frontloaded now, but it's not the same. SS is a completely new property.

[SquareWatcher]

DCEU execs: The Nolan must come back. He must. He must...

 

 

 

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

When Deathly Hallows 2 dropped 12% from the true Friday to Saturday, no one claimed it had anything to do with WOM.

When it fell 72% and then  54% in the next two weekends, no one said that the creative team should be fired.

DH2 had a 2.25X.  No one said it had anything to do with bad WOM.

 

Movies, especially ones with rabid fan bases, are ridiculously frontloaded now.  This is just another example of it.

This is laughable...and not because of what you're saying. 

Because before this drop happened, folks were adamant to NOT call this a sequel or a continuation of the DCEU and that it wouldnt perform like a sequel. And now that it's dropped hard, it's suddenly thrown into that box. BvS didn't even have the drop this had, and that one was considered one of the more front loaded films. 

 

Regardless a comparison between an 8th film in a well established and well liked franchise is not a good one for Suicide Squad. Of course Deathly Hallows Part 2 would be enormously front loaded. It's the 8th film in the franchise. By all accounts Suicide Squad wasn't a sequel like film (even though I was adamant this whole time it would perform like one this weekend). 

Edited August 7, 2016 by Nova

[Lordmandeep]

BAJMER JUST BECAUSE A FILM OPENS strongly does not mean it was well kiked.

 

Tf2 did z 250 million 5 day equivalert opening 

[TimmyRiggins]

Big drop, frontloaded, still 130 million opening, great result no matter which way you slice it, there's nothing more to say really. 

 

I really dug the film, although I want to see what Ayer's true vision is, but at least, WB will realize they have to stop fucking around, then, we might see not only gigantic openings, but also legs, although it's still too soon to tell. 

[Yandereprime101189]

On the bright side though, once Sunday estimates come in, this will be David Ayer's highest grossing film domestically.

 

$120-$130 would put it away above his previous films, especially since Fury, his previous film, only did $85 million domestic.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Yandereprime101189

[baumer]

So you guys believe that WOM was so toxic from Friday to Saturday and that caused the Saturday drop?  I just don't believe that. There's mitigating factors. One has to be DC rush. Another is t-mobile promo. I think there's enough people here who hate it you're trying to play on it without actually reporting all the facts. If this ends up having Batman vs. Superman multiplier then that is definitely because of crappy word of mouth. If this ends up having a Civil War multiplier then it's just the way movies are front load of these days that have built-in audiences.

[terrestrial]

8 hours ago, TLK said:

They apparently took Rogue One away from the director and now Tony Gilroy is the man in charge. It is never a good thing when that happens.

 

8 hours ago, nilephelan said:

This is bullshit and Tony Gilroy worked with Edwards in the same capacity on Godzilla.  

 

Agree. The 'detailed' news was: he is involved into the edit and (maybe?) the reshoots. The re-shoots were announced beforehand they even started filming. The filming seems to have been done for some reasons in a bit unusual order.

 

Sometimes I am really sad about how websites... create click-bait headlines and how that increases way too much via e.g. social media...

 

8 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Add China and I can see SS2 making 600+ m easily.

I'm not up-to-date, but as far as I know SS won't get a China release. Maybe checking in the China forum here at BOT?

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

I wonder how Baumer's going to react to this.

Me too.

If the OW stays under I think $135m he'll have lost a bet with Tele for the ones wondering why we are wondering.

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

IIRC, Baumer didn't even think SS was hitting 100 OW, so again he'll probably still say what an amazing achievement this is, blah blah blah. 

Anything is amazing out of proper context. If I go tell some random person on the street that an indie movie they've never heard of made millions of dollars this weekend they'd probably be in awe and think that was huge. 

Hmm I'm guessing I might have to read up why he did take the bet with Tele then....

 

7 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

holy shit i just realized 19% with top critics

 

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

I'd like to ask why people even point out the top critic's percentage.

No one cares about that. People only care about what the front page of Rotten Tomatoes says.

 

Beside Ozymandias I too look those details up, especially if in doubt about wanting to watch a movie in cinema or on sic instead

 

I also think it's interesting as the top critics usually have far more readers, especially within the general audience group, than other reviewers = their impact could be higher. Often those are also more experienced reviewers than at some of the non-top-critics are.

 

About SS: top critics have a worse percentage, but 0.1 better rating than the complete average. That happens, but mostly it is the other way around, often even with a bigger difference,.

 

7 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

top critics are major publications and the % won't change over time

= often akso interesting if the reputation of a movie changes over time, later written reviews can differ quite a lot (depending on how much a movie gets now seen as better or worse)

 

7 hours ago, Jay Beezy said:

I think these trades should start considering saying instead of tracking to opening to this number opening weekend, it's tracking to opening to this number opening day and then dependent on WOM it'll make this if it's good or this if it's bad for the weekend.

That I'd like too

 

7 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

So here's food for thought:

If GA don't know the difference between Marvel and DC* then is the poor reception of SS really a killer for the DCEU? I mean if you ask an average movie-goer, can they tell you all the different CBM cinematic universes?

If so then maybe the DCEU isn't doomed like we think it is. After all if Doctor Strange is good and successful, then that'll help alleviate concerns about WW with the GA. So in a way, Marvel could be helping DC out.

*Assuming you care to generalize the GA which is a huge group with multiple sub-groups. There's likely be a big part of the GA that knows the difference between Marvel and DC and there's likely a big part that does. There's a part that might associate Marvel with quality. They might not.

Agree, hence the reason why I think it is possible, that e.g. Doctor Strange might get hurt a little bit. As the time between the release is after the 'dead' September... maybe the hunger for something new is big enough to counteract that??? We will see

 

In between away to pick up son at the train station, now at page 151. Soon away again for a bit... If I'll ever reach the last page ?

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Big drop, frontloaded, still 130 million opening, great result no matter which way you slice it, there's nothing more to say really. 

 

I really dug the film, although I want to see what Ayer's true vision is, but at least, WB will realize they have to stop fucking around, then, we might see not only gigantic openings, but also legs, although it's still too soon to tell. 

 

 

If this was just a standalone film or a simple franchise but divivise films like Batman v Superman and SS are literally throwing 100's of millions of future revenue dollars down the toilet. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

So you guys believe that WOM was so toxic from Friday to Saturday and that caused the Saturday drop?  I just don't believe that. There's mitigating factors. One has to be DC rush. Another is t-mobile promo. I think there's enough people here who hate it you're trying to play on it without actually reporting all the facts. If this ends up having Batman vs. Superman multiplier then that is definitely because of crappy word of mouth. If this ends up having a Civil War multiplier then it's just the way movies are front load of these days that have built-in audiences.

Maybe what you're saying is true. It's dropped a lot in almost every single international market that it's opened in on its second day and it's IM in those countries for the weekend have been abysmal. I can't imagine it's gotten bad WOM in all those countries but also those countries didn't have the T-mobile promo so what we are left with is bad WOM and DC rush in those countries. I guess we will find out. 

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, Baumer said:

So you guys believe that WOM was so toxic from Friday to Saturday and that caused the Saturday drop?  I just don't believe that. There's mitigating factors. One has to be DC rush. Another is t-mobile promo. I think there's enough people here who hate it you're trying to play on it without actually reporting all the facts. If this ends up having Batman vs. Superman multiplier then that is definitely because of crappy word of mouth. If this ends up having a Civil War multiplier then it's just the way movies are front load of these days that have built-in audiences.

 

 

Its still the first film in its own franchise and all of those films have had solid legs usually apart from DC now. 

[TimmyRiggins]

From one day to the next, like Baumer said, don't buy it for a second. Rush factor. Civil War had kind of a crappy multiplier, okay WOM despite having great reviews. 

[baumer]

You guys have to understand I'm not arguing one way or the other about this having good or bad Word of Mouth. It very well could have terrible Word of Mouth. I'm just saying word of mouths one way or another does not develop in 24 hours. So let's just wait at least 10 days to find out what the word of mouth is like on this. It's almost guaranteed to drop at least 60% next weekend. But after that let's see how it stabilizes.

[The Panda]

30 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

BAJMER JUST BECAUSE A FILM OPENS strongly does not mean it was well kiked.

 

Tf2 did z 250 million 5 day equivalert opening 

 

To expand on this.

 

Just because you personally liked a movie, does not mean it's going to be well liked.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

From one day to the next, like Baumer said, don't buy it for a second. Rush factor. Civil War had kind of a crappy multiplier, okay WOM despite having great reviews. 

Civil War is also the third captain America film and part of a well established universe. It's the same concept used for why Deathly Hallows dropped. By all accounts by people on this forum, Suicide Squad was not going to perform like a sequel because it's getting good WOM and according to them most people wouldn't tie it to the DCEU. It's amazing how things change. But who knows...it's only the beginning of its run and you may very well be right 

Edited August 7, 2016 by Nova

[The Panda]

13 minutes ago, Baumer said:

So you guys believe that WOM was so toxic from Friday to Saturday and that caused the Saturday drop?  I just don't believe that. There's mitigating factors. One has to be DC rush. Another is t-mobile promo. I think there's enough people here who hate it you're trying to play on it without actually reporting all the facts. If this ends up having Batman vs. Superman multiplier then that is definitely because of crappy word of mouth. If this ends up having a Civil War multiplier then it's just the way movies are front load of these days that have built-in audiences.

 

Theres other factors, but you can't just throw WOM out the window.  WOM travels quickly nowadays.  Remember movies like Godzilla?  Great opening days but crumbled right after?  Bad WoM can sink a movie quickly.

 

And no, SS shouldn't have a CW or DH2 multi.  Those films pretty much required you to be a fan of a long franchise to see and appreciate them.  SS doesn't.  If anything it should at least be able to get a 2.4x multi if WoM wasn't bad.

Edited August 7, 2016 by The Panda

[Heat Vision]

Word of mouth for Suicide Squad is better than BvS. Still I see Man of Steel numbers.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

To expand on this.

 

Just because you personally liked a movie, does not mean it's going to be well liked.

 

But I'm not saying that.

[kitik]

2 minutes ago, Baumer said:

You guys have to understand I'm not arguing one way or the other about this having good or bad Word of Mouth. It very well could have terrible Word of Mouth. I'm just saying word of mouths one way or another does not develop in 24 hours. So let's just wait at least 10 days to find out what the word of mouth is like on this. It's almost guaranteed to drop at least 60% next weekend. But after that let's see how it stabilizes.

 

DC clearly has a huge fanbase. You can see how devoted they are on this very board. So yeah, that would account for some of this horrendous Saturday drop, but some of it simply HAS to be due to WOM. (Which could develop over 24 hours these days, but actually started developing on Tuesday when the reviews hit this week.)

[baumer]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

 

Theres other factors, but you can't just throw WOM out the window.  WOM travels quickly nowadays.  Remember movies like Godzilla?  Great opening days but crumbled right after?  Bad WoM can sink a movie quickly.

 

But not in 24 hours. That's all I'm saying.