BOT User Tracking 8/12-14 Florence Foster Jenkins, Pete's Dragon, Sausage Party

[Wrath]

Technically summer has a few more weeks, but Suicide Squad felt like the last big blockbuster of the summer. This week, we get what will probably be the last movies with any kind of "summer" feel to them, so I'm going to start my mourning for the end of a really fun time of year. So, get your hankies out and to some predicting.

 

Please provide your 8/12-14 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Florence Foster Jenkins

Pete's Dragon

Sausage Party

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

[Ethan Hunt]

Pete's Dragon- 36M

Sausage Party- 23M

Florence Foster Jenkins- 5M

[cannastop]

Florence Foster Jenkins: $6.5m

 

Pete's Dragon: $35m

 

Sausage Party: $25m

[WrathOfHan]

Pete's Dragon: 27M

Sausage Party: 25M

Florence: 6M

[YM!]

Pete's Dragon $34.3M

Sausage Party $28.7M

Florence Foster Jenkins $7.2M

[trifle]

Sausage Party $16M.

 

[Arlborn]

Florence Foster Jenkins: $7.5m

 

Pete's Dragon: $41.3m

 

Sausage Party: $29m

[DAJK]

FFJ - $9.6M

Sausage Party - $26.2M

Pete's Dragon - $44.1M

[BourneFan #1]

Pete's Dragon: $37m

Sausage Party: $23.2m

Florence Foster Jenkins: $8.2m

[kowhite]

Be interesting where this lands.  While all signs point to a 20 something number for Petes, the mid 30s seems...possible.  I'm not banking on it.  If it does mid 30s that's a definite success for this movie.

[Blankments]

Pete’s Dragon - 27.386M

Sausage Party - 23.321M

Florence Foster Jenkins - 7.377M

[Wrath]

Florence Foster Jenkins 5.8M

Pete's Dragon 28.8M

Sausage Party 22.8M

 

This prediction is brought to you buy Ocean's Ocho and the number 8.

[Viceversa]

Florence Foster Jenkins 8.03M

Pete's Dragon 29.33M

Sausage Party 24.27M

Edited August 11, 2016 by Viceversa

[Wrath]

Sorry, its been a very rough week. I'll get everything caught up on Monday.

[Wrath]

MovieWeb.com's weird predicts are back in full force, and I'm grateful for it. As well as nearly being caught back up. Overall, we were moderately optimistic on Florence, slightly optimistic on Pete, and actually rather low on Sausage Party. Interestingly, we were very tightly bunched in our Sausage Party predicts, weird for a movie that in theory was hard to predict.

 

As usual, I totaled all predicts (16 for Florence, 17 for Pete's Dragon, and 18 for Sausage Party) and here are the results: 

 

Florence Foster Jenkins

Mean: 8.5M

Median: 7.765M

StnDev: 2.8M (revised StnDev: 2.85M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 36.00%

High: 15.3M

Low: 5M

 

BO.com 6.5M

Deadline 5.5M

MovieWeb 14.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 6.5M

Variety 8M

 

Pete's Dragon

Mean: 31.1M

Median: 28.8M

StnDev: 6.68M (revised StnDev: 6.61)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.21%

High: 44.1M

Low: 23M

 

BO.com 31M 

Deadline 25M

MovieWeb 43.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 27M

Variety 25M

 

Sausage Party

Mean: 22.9M

Median: 23.2605M

StnDev: 4.03M (revised StnDev: 4.62)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.31%

High: 29M

Low: 15M

 

BO.com 30M 

Deadline 26M

MovieWeb 28.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 29.5M

Variety 15M

[Wrath]

I'm a little tight on time, so I'm going to put this up and then come back and edit once the actuals are all in.

 

Florence Foster Jenkins

Prediction: 7.765M +/- 2.8M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 6.601M (off by 1.2M, so 0.42 stndev)

A good predict, though we were at best about in the middle of everyone else. Our best predict was Cannastop at 6.5M

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Pete's Dragon

Prediction: 28.8M +/- 6.68M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 21.51M (off by 7.3M, so 1.09 stndev)

Ugh. Not terrible but not good, either. Just on the wrong side of acceptable, though we were roughly in the middle of the pack overall. Best predict was also our Low predict, which was 23M by Krissykins.

Sausage Party

Prediction: 23.26M +/- 4.03M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 34.26M (off by 11.0M, so  2.73 stndev)

Ow. Just terrible. We went low and it substantially beat expectations. Our best predict was also our High predict, which was 29M by MaxMoser3.

Edited August 26, 2016 by Wrath