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BOT User Tracking 8/12-14 Florence Foster Jenkins, Pete's Dragon, Sausage Party

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Technically summer has a few more weeks, but Suicide Squad felt like the last big blockbuster of the summer. This week, we get what will probably be the last movies with any kind of "summer" feel to them, so I'm going to start my mourning for the end of a really fun time of year. So, get your hankies out and to some predicting.


Please provide your 8/12-14 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Florence Foster Jenkins

Pete's Dragon

Sausage Party


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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MovieWeb.com's weird predicts are back in full force, and I'm grateful for it. As well as nearly being caught back up. Overall, we were moderately optimistic on Florence, slightly optimistic on Pete, and actually rather low on Sausage Party. Interestingly, we were very tightly bunched in our Sausage Party predicts, weird for a movie that in theory was hard to predict.


As usual, I totaled all predicts (16 for Florence, 17 for Pete's Dragon, and 18 for Sausage Party) and here are the results: 


Florence Foster Jenkins

Mean: 8.5M

Median: 7.765M

StnDev: 2.8M (revised StnDev: 2.85M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 36.00%

High: 15.3M

Low: 5M


BO.com 6.5M

Deadline 5.5M

MovieWeb 14.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 6.5M

Variety 8M


Pete's Dragon

Mean: 31.1M

Median: 28.8M

StnDev: 6.68M (revised StnDev: 6.61)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.21%

High: 44.1M

Low: 23M


BO.com 31M 

Deadline 25M

MovieWeb 43.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 27M

Variety 25M


Sausage Party

Mean: 22.9M

Median: 23.2605M

StnDev: 4.03M (revised StnDev: 4.62)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.31%

High: 29M

Low: 15M


BO.com 30M 

Deadline 26M

MovieWeb 28.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 29.5M

Variety 15M

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I'm a little tight on time, so I'm going to put this up and then come back and edit once the actuals are all in.


Florence Foster Jenkins

Prediction: 7.765M +/- 2.8M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 6.601M (off by 1.2M, so 0.42 stndev)

A good predict, though we were at best about in the middle of everyone else. Our best predict was Cannastop at 6.5M


Pete's Dragon

Prediction: 28.8M +/- 6.68M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 21.51M (off by 7.3M, so 1.09 stndev)

Ugh. Not terrible but not good, either. Just on the wrong side of acceptable, though we were roughly in the middle of the pack overall. Best predict was also our Low predict, which was 23M by Krissykins.

Sausage Party

Prediction: 23.26M +/- 4.03M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 34.26M (off by 11.0M, so  2.73 stndev)

Ow. Just terrible. We went low and it substantially beat expectations. Our best predict was also our High predict, which was 29M by MaxMoser3.

Edited by Wrath
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