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Eric Atreides

Moonlight l A24 l Plan B l October 21, 2016 l Academy Award Best Picture

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I think a lot of people are under estimating Moonlight's box office potential. Worst case scenario I see is it plays like Steve Jobs, but with a best picture (and probably many other) nominations virtually guaranteed as well as a 100 on Metacritic, I think a lot more people are going to want to seek this out when it goes wide. I don't think expanding straight to 2,400+ theatres like Steve Jobs is a good idea though; A slower roll out would work better for it. A24 have done an excellent job so far, who knows how big this can be if they play their cards right. 

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Just now, Fanboy said:

I think a lot of people are under estimating Moonlight's box office potential. Worst case scenario I see is it plays like Steve Jobs, but with a best picture (and probably many other) nominations virtually guaranteed as well as a 100 on Metacritic, I think a lot more people are going to want to seek this out when it goes wide. I don't think expanding straight to 2,400+ theatres like Steve Jobs is a good idea though; A slower roll out would work better for it. A24 have done an excellent job so far, who knows how big this can be if they play their cards right. 

I think it can even get some mainstream press as well. Might stick out from all those other Oscar contenders.

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16 hours ago, Fanboy said:

I think a lot of people are under estimating Moonlight's box office potential. Worst case scenario I see is it plays like Steve Jobs, but with a best picture (and probably many other) nominations virtually guaranteed as well as a 100 on Metacritic, I think a lot more people are going to want to seek this out when it goes wide. I don't think expanding straight to 2,400+ theatres like Steve Jobs is a good idea though; A slower roll out would work better for it. A24 have done an excellent job so far, who knows how big this can be if they play their cards right. 

 

That 100 on Metacritic is no more. I think it's official: any review from Slant Magazine is the new Armond White. 

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17 hours ago, Fanboy said:

I think a lot of people are under estimating Moonlight's box office potential. Worst case scenario I see is it plays like Steve Jobs, but with a best picture (and probably many other) nominations virtually guaranteed as well as a 100 on Metacritic, I think a lot more people are going to want to seek this out when it goes wide. I don't think expanding straight to 2,400+ theatres like Steve Jobs is a good idea though; A slower roll out would work better for it. A24 have done an excellent job so far, who knows how big this can be if they play their cards right. 

 

$30m DOM seems more likely than not at this point. 

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18 hours ago, Fanboy said:

I think a lot of people are under estimating Moonlight's box office potential. Worst case scenario I see is it plays like Steve Jobs, but with a best picture (and probably many other) nominations virtually guaranteed as well as a 100 on Metacritic, I think a lot more people are going to want to seek this out when it goes wide. I don't think expanding straight to 2,400+ theatres like Steve Jobs is a good idea though; A slower roll out would work better for it. A24 have done an excellent job so far, who knows how big this can be if they play their cards right. 

It's not going that wide so soon, the only reason Steve Jobs went that wide is because Universal released it. Looks like A24 is planning a similar roll out like Room. I think about 30 theaters this weekend, 100 theaters Nov 4, and up to 200 theaters over Thanksgiving weekend. They will likely wait until after Oscar noms before going 500+ theaters. That's the smartest strategy for these small indies, awards season gives them the best marketing. 

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40 minutes ago, babz06 said:

It's not going that wide so soon, the only reason Steve Jobs went that wide is because Universal released it. Looks like A24 is planning a similar roll out like Room. I think about 30 theaters this weekend, 100 theaters Nov 4, and up to 200 theaters over Thanksgiving weekend. They will likely wait until after Oscar noms before going 500+ theaters. That's the smartest strategy for these small indies, awards season gives them the best marketing. 

 

BOM and Deadline both reported that it's going wide November 4. Given the numbers it's delivering right now it's definitely smarter not to wait. Then they can expand it again come Oscar noms anyway.

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8 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Thought it was pretty good. Not great though IMO. I was almost always engaged, but it didn't blow me away. Performances are great across the board, though I don't know if it will get any noms there, simply not enough screen time for any of them. BP is locked though. B+

I think Ali and Harris are pretty much locked for Supporting noms tbh. Helps that their categories are rather barren this year.

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Just now, filmlover said:

I think Ali and Harris are pretty much locked for Supporting noms tbh. Helps that their categories are rather barren this year.

 

Can see Harris.

 

Spoiler

Ali is great, but man I didn't expect his role to be that small.

 

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think Ali and Harris are pretty much locked for Supporting noms tbh. Helps that their categories are rather barren this year.

I think the ensemble is fantastic, but the nature of the movie doesn't really allow much screen time to any one of the supporting cast. Which is a shame since it's so well acted all around.

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My current Supporting Actor predictions are Ali/Bridges/Hedges/Neeson/Shannon fyi. Although I guess I wouldn't rule out something like a surprise Peter Sarsgaard coattail nomination in the event Jackie really overperforms and/or Neeson's role in Silence turns out to be nothing particularly exciting.

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9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

My current Supporting Actor predictions are Ali/Bridges/Hedges/Neeson/Shannon fyi. Although I guess I wouldn't rule out something like a surprise Peter Sarsgaard coattail nomination in the event Jackie really overperforms and/or Neeson's role in Silence turns out to be nothing particularly exciting.

 

Aaron Taylor Johnson is coming to snatch everybody's wigs.

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