Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[Maxmoser3]

Next weekend is gong to be reliant on holdovers. War Dogs looks like a fun movie but a debut between $13-$15 million seems reasonable. Ben-Hur will bomb just like Gods Of Egypt and do between $10-$12 million weekend. Kubo and the Two  Strings will do the same as Ben-Hur a debut between $10-$12 million. 

[MovieMan89]

So about that great WOM I was hoping for for Pete's Dragon: yeah I dunno about that now. The movie is very subdued and slow paced and I don't think I can see today's ADD gen of kids going for it at all. Especially after the flat out rejection of BFG earlier this summer, which may as well be The Secret Life of Pets compared to PD in terms of pacing.  Haven't been in a more restless theater in ages than my screening of PD. I swear, all the kids in the theater were squirming and chattering for 80% of it. 

[CJohn]

I think Sausage Party will do 100M in the same way of This is the End or Bad Teacher.

[That One Girl]

Just now, RichWS said:

 

And it might not get a 3x.

 

40 Year Old Virgin - 5.1x

Knocked up - 4.8x

Superbad - 3.7x

Pineapple Express - 3.8x

Zack and Miri - 3.1x

50/50 - 4.1x

The Guilt Trip - 7x (!!!)

This is the End - 4.9x

Neighbors - 3.1x

The Interview - 3.4x

Night Before - 3.6x

 

Hell, even THE GREEN HORNET out of all movies nearly got a 3x.

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Easy? It's WOM hasn't exactly been stellar.

 

Green Hornet was within like a million of a 3x.  If that can nearly do it, Sausage Party is pretty much guaranteed to do it.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I think Sausage Party will do 100M in the same way of This is the End or Bad Teacher.

If it comes close enough they'll definitely push it over.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, ThatOneSausage said:

 

40 Year Old Virgin - 5.1x

Knocked up - 4.8x

Superbad - 3.7x

Pineapple Express - 3.8x

Zack and Miri - 3.1x

50/50 - 4.1x

The Guilt Trip - 7x (!!!)

This is the End - 4.9x

Neighbors - 3.1x

The Interview - 3.4x

Night Before - 3.6x

 

Hell, even THE GREEN HORNET out of all movies nearly got a 3x.

We're living in a summer where the 3x multi has literally become a very exclusive club reserve for only the best WOM though. Nothing outside of well received animation can be assumed as having a  3x multi right now. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by MovieMan89

[straggler]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

It's funny how you so easily credit her with a bump in the franchise for DOFP, even though as I've already pointed out DOFP was a great film in itself, but are so quickly to dismiss her for the poor sales of XA, because that film was poor in quality. That makes no sense and is actually quite contradictory. Could it be that DOFP was actually good and hence made as much money as it did and XA was just bad which is why it didn't make as much? I'm thinking that's the case more so than Jlaw's "bump" in franchise. 

Except you just as easily fail to credit her. It is like the argument that the Hunger Games would have worked with just any actress. Keep dreaming.

 

Apocalypse had poor reviews, no longer had the old cast (except one very shoehorned cameo), and is a well worm franchise with a lower box office ceiling than other comic book films and still managed $540 million WW. Given that DOFP which checked every book did $734 million that is not too shabby. Something still drew audiences. Not saying she did it alone, but it did not hurt. Being a draw is often a circular argument. Does a film draw because is well-received, due to its stars or a combination? I'd say a combination. No one draws in a non-commercial film that gets poor reviews. But if we eliminate the idea of drawing power in every good film, then no one is a draw. DOFP made over twice the box office of First Class. That is not automatic. DOFP was a good film to a large degree because the cast was very good and brought it to life. And Jlaw was part of it. She had the star part around which the entire story turned. Not many other actresses could have credibly pulled that off. It was based on her stardom. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by straggler

[Harpospoke]

8 hours ago, UrosepsisFace said:

 

Yeah, well, if I'm going to take that seriously, after a quick glance at the last decade, the majority of tentpoles must have lost hundreds of millions each, which is far worse than almost breaking even. So, either I assume Hollywood magically makes money appear to fuel an unsustainable industry, or I conclude that either the movie doesn't have to make that much money during theatrical release, or much of the production budget is basically the studio paying itself.

 

If the DCEU is a giant money loser, then what is the Star Trek franchise?

 

Star Trek 09: Budget 150m, DOM 258m, WW 386m

Star Trek Into Darkness: Budget 190m, DOM 229m, WW 467m

Star Trek Beyond (so far): Budget 185m, DOM 135m, WW 202m

 

v

 

Suicide Squad (so far): Budget 175m, DOM 192m, WW 384m

 

After its first weekend, Suicide Squad's Domestic numbers will be better than Star Trek Beyond's World Wide total after 4 weekends. I love the Star Trek franchise. It's Paramounts #2 franchise, much more critically acclaimed than the DCEU, and personally I think it's more entertaining than the DCEU. That said, in terms of box office, if the DCEU is a failure then Star Trek is a disaster!

 

Yeah, there is something fishy about the whole idea that these movies need to make ridiculous money just to "break even".    Hollywood is swimming in money for a reason and it ain't because they are falling all over themselves to spend this much on movies and promotion and losing money or "breaking even".    Just not adding up.

 

7 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

No they wont learn, they will make visual films to appeal in marketing. 

 

They could care less if the movies are good or not based on the boxoffice returns lately.

 

People will eat this crap up 

 

I would scoff at this, but then I remember the Transformers movies.    When people buy that many tickets, apparently the studio thinks there is no reason to change anything.

[straggler]

I'm not buying that SS has a $175 million dollar budget. Even with reshoots?  

[Water Bottle]

Just now, straggler said:

I'm not buying that SS has a $175 million dollar budget. Even with reshoots?  

 

Will Smith is expensive, yo.

[Dementeleus]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Somebody still pressed over audiences rejecting The BFG?

 

What? No, lol, that doesn't have anything to do with it. I think it's an extremely frontloaded movie with limited capacity at breaking out past its target demo.

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

We're living in a summer where the 3x multi has literally become a very exclusive club reserve for only the best WOM though. Nothing outside of well received animation can be assumed as having a  3x multi right now. 

 

Technically, Sausage Party IS well received animation.  

Edited August 14, 2016 by ThatOneSausage

[Harpospoke]

4 minutes ago, straggler said:

Except you just as easily fail to credit her. It is like the argument that the Hunger Games would have worked with just any actress. Keep dreaming.

 

Apocalypse had poor reviews, no longer had the old cast (except one very shoehorned cameo), and is a well worm franchise with a lower box office ceiling than other comic book films and still managed $540 million WW. Given that DOFP which checked every book did $734 million that is not too shabby. Something still drew audiences. Not saying she did it alone, but it did not hurt. Being a draw is often a circular argument. Does a film draw because is well-received, due to its stars or a combination? I'd say a combination. No one draws in a non-commercial film that gets poor reviews. But if we eliminate the idea of drawing power in every good film, then no one is a draw. DOFP made twice the budget of First Class. That is not automatic. DOFP was a good film to a large degree because the cast was very good and brought it to life. And Jlaw was part of it. She had the star part around which the entire story turned. Not many other actresses could have credibly pulled that off. It was based on her stardom. 

 

Wasn't JLaw in both First Class and AoA?    Her "drawing power" worked for one out of three Xmovies?

 

I think drawing power is probably overstated.   The actors with drawing power are probably the ones that make a lot of appealing movies.   I say that because no matter how big an actor is, they can have a flop right in the middle of a winning streak of hits.   The movie appears to be the draw far more than the star.

[filmlover]

Just now, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

What? No, lol, that doesn't have anything to do with it. I think it's an extremely frontloaded movie with limited capacity at breaking out past its target demo.

I think if it were extremely frontloaded, it would've fallen around 40% yesterday instead of 15%.

[Water Bottle]

Just now, filmlover said:

I think if it were extremely frontloaded, it would've fallen around 40% yesterday instead of 15%.

 

Unless it's frontloaded in a more classical sense (over the OW) than in the more modern sense (Thursday-Friday).

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

What? No, lol, that doesn't have anything to do with it. I think it's an extremely frontloaded movie with limited capacity at breaking out past its target demo.

 

My mom is nearly 51 years old and walked out of the movie saying it was one of the funniest movies she's ever seen.  My audience also had quite a bit of older females/older males in the audience, which I would say reaches past the target demo of young males, and all of them were laughing hysterically throughout it. 

 

The

food orgy scene

 had the biggest laughs for any movie I've ever seen since Brick's funeral scene at a packed theater of Anchorman 2 on opening night.

Edited August 14, 2016 by ThatOneSausage
added a spoiler

[Nova]

14 minutes ago, straggler said:

Except yopu just as easily fail to credit her. It is like the argument that the Hunger Games would have worked with just any actress. Keep dreaming.

 

Apocalypse had poor reviews, no longer had the old cast (except one very shoehorned cameo), and is a well worm franchise with a lower box office ceiling than other comic book films and still managed $540 million WW. Given that DOFP which checked every book did $734 million that is not too shabby. Something still drew audiences. Not saying she did it alone, but it did not hurt. Being a draw is often a circular argument. Does a film draw because is well-received, due to its stars or a combination? I'd say a combination. No one draws in a non-commercial film that gets poor reviews. But if we eliminate the idea of drawing power in every good film, then no one is a draw. DOFP made twice the budget of First Class. That is not automatic. DOFP was a good film to a large degree because the cast was very good and brought it to life. And Jlaw was part of it. She had the star part around which the entire story turned. Not many other actresses could have credibly pulled that off. It was based on her stardom. 

How am I discrediting her? Because I won't say she's the reason why DOFP was successful? Thats not discrediting her. Thats looking at the whole picture. DOFP was a very well received  comic book film, got great reviews and took advantage of the weekend it opened. Thats why it was successful. I'm sure if it was poorly recieved it wouldn't have made the money it did or got the reviews it did. Point blank. This isn't the Hunger Games situation where Jlaw was the main star. Thats a completely different scenario.

 

And again if you're going to credit her for the success of DOFP, don't make up excuses for her for why XA wasn't as successful. She was in that film too. Why didn't she bring a bump to its gross? Why is her bump to the franchise only exclusive to the most well received X-Men film in years?  

 

The success of DOFP was not based on Jlaw's stardom. It was based on a multitude of other things. The story, the script, the character development, the marketing, the great reviews and the cast which yes she was part of...as in PART of. She wasn't the only person in the film like lets say Cast Away or the main character in the film like lets say Joy. She was a part of an ensemble film that had great characters and a good cast. As a result, you credit the whole cast for its success as well as the other factors that I've already mentioned. Not say "Jlaw brought a bump to the franchise," when in reality she was in three of those films and yet you only apply that bump to the most well recieved film and completely ignore all the other factors. I can't with you Jlaw stans thinking she's the next coming of christ or something. 

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Nova

[filmlover]

I think I would rather have my face shoved into one of Tele's used Depends than watch Sausage Party with my mom next to me. And I'm not kidding.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I think if it were extremely frontloaded, it would've fallen around 40% yesterday instead of 15%.

 

I think it's completely possible for a movie to not be frontloaded over its OW yet be relatively frontloaded overall. All it means is that its core demo seeks it out over the first weekend, not literally the first day. Since SP isn't a sequel, I don't see why it would be inherently frontloaded in terms of the OW internal multiplier.