Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[MovieMan89]

Hopefully Kubo mini breaks out and does 20m+. Marketing has been action packed and attached to every animated film for months, so if any stop motion film is gonna do above the norm, this is it. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Gopher said:

Next weekend's gonna be tight. Could see five films within the 15-20m range (and none of them are gonna be Ben Hur). 

 

If I had to pick now: 

 

Suicide Squad: 20.7m (-53%) 

War Dogs: 18m 

Sausage Party: 17.2m (-49%) 

Kubo: 15.8m 

Pete's: 14.5m (-31%) 

I agree, though I'm thinking War Dogs will settle on a $15M opening.

[straggler]

34 minutes ago, Harpospoke said:

 

Wasn't JLaw in both First Class and AoA?    Her "drawing power" worked for one out of three Xmovies?

 

I think drawing power is probably overstated.   The actors with drawing power are probably the ones that make a lot of appealing movies.   I say that because no matter how big an actor is, they can have a flop right in the middle of a winning streak of hits.   The movie appears to be the draw far more than the star.

In First Class no one knew who she was yet. I think it helped with the last two though. 

 

But I agree that drawing power is overstated. I think it is the right actor in the right film that clicks with audiences. If the film stinks, it won't matter. 

[Gopher]

7 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

That's a small drop for SP. 

 

Superbad did -45%, I imagine this would hold similarly after you take into account its inflated previews. 

[Ohana]

From The-Numbers.com:

 

A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically.

That puts more pressure on the film internationally, where it is doing fairly well, having picked up $242.5 million so far, slightly ahead of its $222.9 million domestic haul. That takes the DC Extended Universe to nearly $2 billion worldwide after three films, which is no slouch. It’s worth remembering that the Marvel Cinematic Universe took five films to pass $2 billion worldwide, albeit several years ago when international markets were smaller. It wasn’t until The Avengers and Iron Man 3 (the sixth and seventh films) that the franchise really hit its stride. The DC Universe still has time.

 

[filmlover]

If Sausage Party drops less than 50% will age finally catch up to Father Tele and he turns to dust (ala Mother Gothel in Tangled)?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

If Sausage Party drops less than 50% will age finally catch up to Father Tele and he turns to dust (ala Mother Gothel in Tangled)?

What if Moana and Sing both end up over 350m+?

 

What if Storks hits 300?

 

[Haley Ross]

18 minutes ago, Harpospoke said:

I would scoff at this, but then I remember the Transformers movies.    When people buy that many tickets, apparently the studio thinks there is no reason to change anything.

 

Exactly. What are the odds that Transformers will start to make smart decisions with their slate of movies when don't need to make smart decisions? If they can make their profits making dumb decisions?

[Haley Ross]

17 minutes ago, Ohana said:

From The-Numbers.com:

 

A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically.

That puts more pressure on the film internationally, where it is doing fairly well, having picked up $242.5 million so far, slightly ahead of its $222.9 million domestic haul. That takes the DC Extended Universe to nearly $2 billion worldwide after three films, which is no slouch. It’s worth remembering that the Marvel Cinematic Universe took five films to pass $2 billion worldwide, albeit several years ago when international markets were smaller. It wasn’t until The Avengers and Iron Man 3 (the sixth and seventh films) that the franchise really hit its stride. The DC Universe still has time.

 

 

Not if they keep making an inferior product. The franchise really hit it's stride because the Avengers was above all a critically acclaimed and audience satisfying movie experience. So much so it bled right into Iron Man 3 which is easily the highest grossing film of the Iron Man films.  

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What if Moana and Sing both end up over 350m+?

 

What if Storks hits 300?

 

 

moana > (storks + sing) 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

moana > (storks + sing) 

Yeah, gonna say a hard no there unless Moana is doing close to 500. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

9 minutes ago, Haley Ross said:

 

Not if they keep making an inferior product. The franchise really hit it's stride because the Avengers was above all a critically acclaimed and audience satisfying movie experience. So much so it bled right into Iron Man 3 which is easily the highest grossing film of the Iron Man films.  

WB did come out guns ablazing with Supes, then BatSupes and then pulled the Joker from the deck. It's an odd comparison. Would be more apt if Iron Man 2 was Iron Man v. Spider-man or something.

Edited August 14, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[Webslinger]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Hard to believe that movie turns 10 this week. Fuck I feel old.

 

@Webslinger @narniadis @4815162342 @harry713

 

Oh man. I remember someone who has long since quit the forums (Quint 75 or something) repeatedly posting Sam MF Jackson's legendary line in every topic that week. 

 

I didn't end up seeing it until its fourth week (one of the drawbacks of not being 17 at the time), but at least the eight-person crowd was really into it when I finally did get around to it.

[WilliamK99]

You can't really compare Marvel and DC cinematic universes. Marvel started slow with at the time, B list heroes. Iron Man/ Thor/Hulk/Captain America were back then not even in the same league as Batman or Superman. DC tried to jump start their universe and start making "Marvel money" from movie 1... It hasn't worked out, and the fact they are alienating some audience members means JL may not be as big as people think... Avengers was huge because the audience had grown to like the heroes from the previous movies...

[MovieMan89]

Nobody cares about Batfleck now and no one ever really did about Cavill's Superman. So WW is going to have to be the big draw for JL. If she tanks her solo flick, the JL DOM box office is going to be one of the most epic disasters the genre has seen. 

[Napoleon]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Nobody cares about Batfleck now and no one ever really did about Cavill's Superman. So WW is going to have to be the big draw for JL. If she tanks her solo flick, the JL DOM box office is going to be one of the most epic disasters the genre has seen. 

LOL

Are you serious?

[Haley Ross]

14 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

WB did come out guns ablazing with Supes, then BatSupes and then pulled the Joker from the deck. It's an odd comparison. Would be more apt if Iron Man 2 was Iron Man v. Spider-man or something.

 

Yeah it's like DC went from Iron Man to Captain America: Civil War to Guardians of the Galaxy which even as I type this sounds very foolish on their part and would have been equally as foolish on Marvel's part if they had tried something like this. Another problem is like you said, they came out guns blazing. Unfortunately, it has been their biggest guns. Batman v Superman opened $70 million higher than Guardians of the Galaxy and still finished $2-$3 million under it. Man of Steel also opened higher and ended its run lower. Suicide Squad is now going to be the third straight DCEU movie where this has happened. They're almost completely wasting their box office potential whereas Guardians of the Galaxy was fully realizing their own. When you see the potential of making the right choices at the right time like Guardians of the Galaxy and Deadpool, it is difficult to see what the DCEU is doing as a victory regardless of how much they're grossing.

[filmlover]

Hell or High Water is slated to reach 400 theaters next weekend FYI.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

LOL

Are you serious?

Yep. If WW is another BvS/SS received film then 125-150 for JL DOM, which is absolutely a disaster for that movie. 

[grey ghost]

It took the MCU 13 movies to hit franchise fatigue.

 

DCEU is going to experience fatigue much, much sooner if they don't improve the quality control ASAP.