Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Are we sure they won't dive into that until Infinity War? We've heard nothing about returning MCU actors yet.

I am pretty sure but we will see. It wont surprise me if Steve Rogers is in BP either.

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

This is one of the reasons I am adamant that GOTG 2 is going to do better than the first by a good margin while some are not so sure it will increase.  You only have to see 1 previous very entertaining movie to know what is going on.  It is as of now completely disconnected from the Marvel Universe (for audience purposes) and will be much easier to pick up casual movie goers.  

 

That is true, I think it could play like a Dead Man's Chest to GOTG's Curse of the Black Pearl (just hopefully better quality).

[baumer]

It just comes down to whether or not @nilephelan feels like (tonight)

 

[kswiston]

10 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

So SS will beat SP by how much today? They were neck and neck for Friday. That's with SP's previews included.

 

Given the 3M and change difference yesterday when you subtract those Thursday previews, and the differences between an opening film and a holdover, I would guess ~5M in Suicide Squad's favour. More if Sausage Party was frontloaded. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by kswiston

[CJohn]

Just now, The Panda said:

 

That is true, I think it could play like a Dead Man's Chest to GOTG's Curse of the Black Pearl (just hopefully better quality).

Marvel will need to step up their marketing game, but I have a feeling they will just copy the marketing of the first while using new songs.

[Water Bottle]

31 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CW had weak legs because:

 

1. The movie didn't have a high rewatchability factor

2. There was no appeal to outsiders; you have to be invested in the MCU to understand what's going on

 

CW didn't have any backlash.

 

Number one is probably true. I saw Age of Ultron like 4 times in theaters. I saw Civil War once. I liked Civil War better than Age of Ultron and while I wanted to see it again, I didn't take the opportunity to do so.

 

I don't know about appeal to outsiders at least in the ways people are discussing it. I mean the movie still made $400 million. I could be wrong but isn't it having better legs than Star Trek Beyond-a movie which doesn't really require you to have seen a previous Star Trek movie? That's a movie you could jump in and yet....

[CJohn]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

 

Number one is probably true. I saw Age of Ultron like 4 times in theaters. I saw Civil War once. I liked Civil War better than Age of Ultron and while I wanted to see it again, I didn't take the opportunity to do so.

 

I don't know about appeal to outsiders at least in the ways people are discussing it. I mean the movie still made $400 million. I could be wrong but isn't it having better legs than Star Trek Beyond-a movie which doesn't really require you to have seen a previous Star Trek movie? That's a movie you could jump in and yet....

Paramount made sure nobody would want to jump in.

[kswiston]

3 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Number one is probably true. I saw Age of Ultron like 4 times in theaters. I saw Civil War once. I liked Civil War better than Age of Ultron and while I wanted to see it again, I didn't take the opportunity to do so.

 

I don't know about appeal to outsiders at least in the ways people are discussing it. I mean the movie still made $400 million. I could be wrong but isn't it having better legs than Star Trek Beyond-a movie which doesn't really require you to have seen a previous Star Trek movie? That's a movie you could jump in and yet....

 

If legs = OW multiplier, Star Trek Beyond will be comfortably ahead of Civil War at the end of its run. Civil War made 44% of its gross in its opening weekend. Beyond is already at the same multiplier, and still has $30-40M left after yesterday. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by kswiston

[superweirdo87]

Or whether a divine intervention from Asgard takes place.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

It just comes down to whether or not @nilephelan feels like (tonight)

 

Maybe @Rth could show up too and we would have an orgy of Saturday numbers 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Number one is probably true. I saw Age of Ultron like 4 times in theaters. I saw Civil War once. I liked Civil War better than Age of Ultron and while I wanted to see it again, I didn't take the opportunity to do so.

 

I don't know about appeal to outsiders at least in the ways people are discussing it. I mean the movie still made $400 million. I could be wrong but isn't it having better legs than Star Trek Beyond-a movie which doesn't really require you to have seen a previous Star Trek movie? That's a movie you could jump in and yet....

 

ST's legs will be better than CW.

[Gopher]

1 hour ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

Really?  That's kind of unfair.  

 

I was joshing. But I wanted to keep that in the spoiler section. 

[Water Bottle]

Just now, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

ST's legs will be better than CW.

 

Well I hadn't done the math. That's comforting to hear, I guess, but still Beyond's legs aren't that great. Which is really my point.

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

That is true, I think it could play like a Dead Man's Chest to GOTG's Curse of the Black Pearl (just hopefully better quality).

 

I think that is a good comparison.  Next May as of right now is also incredibly weak as are the weeks leading up to GOTG 2 release.  It should have zero competition and be able to have a free run all the way to the 26th if not until Wonder Woman comes out.  

 

No animation worth a shit (I'm not going to count Barbie and Nut Job 2) to draw away families and no big budget action.  The only competition until the 26th is a potential Baywatch break out if that tells you anything.  

 

Even when you get to the 26th you have a much maligned Pirates movie that keeps having more Johnny Depp negative press.  Life looks interesting, but isn't much of a threat.  That untitled comedy from Rogen and Hader could be great, but again, not much of a threat.  

Edited August 14, 2016 by nilephelan

[moviesRus]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Well I hadn't done the math. That's comforting to hear, I guess, but still Beyond's legs aren't that great. Which is really my point.

 

The big difference is you don't need to see any Star Trek movies to watch Beyond and get what everyone else is seeing. Really, they basically reference 2 things from previous films and only very very briefly. 

[kswiston]

4 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Well I hadn't done the math. That's comforting to hear, I guess, but still Beyond's legs aren't that great. Which is really my point.

 

2.75-2.9x OW isn't all that bad. Pretty much on par with Into Darkness if you factor in the weird Wed/Thurs previews. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by kswiston

[baumer]

GOTG2 is going to be huge because it's Marvel.  They are infallible right now.  Doctor Strange will probably do 200 domestic and 600 WW and imo it looks ridiculous.  But Marvel loonies are a devoted bunch and all of their films do well.  

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I think that is a good comparison.  Next May as of right now is also incredibly weak as are the weeks leading up to GOTG 2 release.  It should have zero competition and be able to have a free run all the way to the 26th if not until Wonder Woman comes out.  

 

No animation worth a shit (I'm not going to count Barbie and Nut Job 2) to draw away families and no big budget action.  The only competition until the 26th is a potential Baywatch break out if that tells you anything.  

 

Even when you get to the 26th you have a much maligned Pirates movie that keeps having more Johnny Depp negative press.  Life looks interesting, but isn't much of a threat.  That untitled comedy from Rogen and Hader could be great, but again, not much of a threat.  

 

Yeah, as long as Marvel does a good job marketing the movie as a fun standalone flick (and as long as the quality isn't terrible), I can see a 400m+ Dom run being possible.

Edited August 14, 2016 by The Panda

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Number one is probably true. I saw Age of Ultron like 4 times in theaters. I saw Civil War once. I liked Civil War better than Age of Ultron and while I wanted to see it again, I didn't take the opportunity to do so.

 

I don't know about appeal to outsiders at least in the ways people are discussing it. I mean the movie still made $400 million. I could be wrong but isn't it having better legs than Star Trek Beyond-a movie which doesn't really require you to have seen a previous Star Trek movie? That's a movie you could jump in and yet....

Star Trek will end with a 2.8-2.9x

 

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Paramount made sure nobody would want to jump in.

Motherfucker  

[baumer]

1 minute ago, kswiston said:

 

2.75-2.9x OW isn't all that bad. Pretty much on Par with Into Darkness if you factor in the weird Wed/Thurs previews. 

 

Sorry, but it won't come close to that.  It might do a 2.5X  I guess it could get to 165 if the late legs are strong.