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BOT User Tracking 8/19-21 Ben-Hur, Kubo, War Dogs

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In a hurry, so less time-wasting banter than usual.


Please provide your 8/19-21 Opening Weekend predicts for, 


Kubo and the Two Strings

War Dogs


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Huge Ratio for Ben-Hur, meaning we were not in the slightest confident about our slightly optimistic and higher than everyone else (except the lovably nutty MovieWeb.com) prediction. Kubo, on the other hand, we were slightly pessimistic on, but extremely confident about it for an OW at that level. War Dogs we were optimistic on, with roughly an average level of confidence.


As usual, I totaled all predicts (13 for everything) and here are the results: 



Mean: 14.1M

Median: 13.12M

StnDev: 4.29M (revised StnDev: 3.94M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 32.70%

High: 21M

Low: 8M


BO.com 13M

Deadline 11.5M

MovieWeb 19.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 12.5M

Variety 12.5M


Kubo and the Two Strings

Mean: 15.1M

Median: 14.368M

StnDev: 1.92M (revised StnDev: 1.83)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 13.37%

High: 20M

Low: 13M


BO.com 15M 

Deadline 13.5M

MovieWeb 16.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 15.7M

Variety 12M


War Dogs

Mean: 17.5M

Median: 17M

StnDev: 3.92M (revised StnDev: 3.60)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.06%

High: 23.7M

Low: 11M


BO.com 16M 

Deadline 13.5M

MovieWeb 17.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 15.2M

Variety 13M

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Prediction: 13.12M +/- 4.29M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 11.2M (off by 1.9M, so 0.45 stndev)

This would have been a weak predict (and was the weakest of the sites), but we correctly called that we had no idea what we were talking about, had a huge Ratio and ended up with a decent predict after all. There's plenty of ways to skin a cat! Best predict was MaxMoser3 at 11M.


Kubo and the Two Strings

Prediction: 14.368M +/- 1.92M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 12.61M (off by 1.8M, so 0.92 stndev)

Not a great predict, especially thanks to the unusually low Ratio, but not terrible and we managed to be slightly lower (and thus better) than average. MaxMoser3 again is the closest, but this time he tied with Ethan Hunt at 13M.


War Dogs

Prediction: 17M +/- 3.92M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 14.69M (off by 2.3M, so  0.59 stndev)

Mediocre but not bad, though we were worse than most other sites as our optimism proved unwarranted. Filmlover was the closest predict at 15M, as MaxMoser3 merely comes in a close second (14M) and fails to sweep the week.

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