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LOVE, SIMON | 03.16.18 | Fox | trailer on page 1

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2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

The movie is tracking not even in the teens for an opening.  It is going to need like an 8x multiplier to hit $100m if that holds.  

 

How much do you think this is making opening weekend?  It needs $30m+ realistically and not a single tracking metric has it anywhere near there.  

Yes, this is definitely going to open to less than Everything Everything. Sure.

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

They said the same thing about Justice League when Empire was right :ph34r: 

Except this movie is actually getting good reviews and has plenty of time to build buzz. Not sure why we're comparing this to a sequel to one of the most reviled blockbusters in recent times anyway.

Edited by filmlover
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For fuck's sake guys, I'm not lying to you.  Maybe the tracking will be wildly off, but as of this exact moment the tracking I have seen is $10m, $11m and $13m for an opening.  That is the current data.

 

It's funny that you mention Everything, Everything, because that opening is almost exactly what this is tracking at right now.  

 

This would need to triple the tracking to have a shot at $100m

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4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

For fuck's sake guys, I'm not lying to you.  Maybe the tracking will be wildly off, but as of this exact moment the tracking I have seen is $10m, $11m and $13m for an opening.  That is the current data.

 

It's funny that you mention Everything, Everything, because that opening is almost exactly what this is tracking at right now.  

 

This would need to triple the tracking to have a shot at $100m

I can buy those numbers. It won't have much room for legs either because theaters will be required to play 9 other wide releases when the two week contract for this is up.

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

It also releases in the middle of a 3 week period that has TWELVE!! wide releases.  

We're not even factoring in Black Panther and A Wrinkle in Time, both of which will be ahead of it on OW and likely subsequent weekends.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, most of these will flop. March 23 in particular looks like Bomb City.

I agree, but I have been doing this for a long time and go with my gut more than the data often times.  

 

My gut tells me that if this move hits $50m people should be wildly happy.  $40m is more likely, but I have been wrong more times than I can count.  

 

There simply isn't the awareness or buzz around the film and quite frankly it isn't that good.  There isn't the noticeable buzz similar to Fault in our Stars or the star power.  

 

As progressive as the country has become, this movie also doesn't likely play well in the flyover part of the country.  

 

I fully agree Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim will likely be shit, but they have big muscle behind them and those studios are going to be hammering theaters for screen space and support.  If it comes down to giving the YA novel featuring a gay protagonist and Laura Croft, then Laura is going to get the screen support.  

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Also, theaters and studios rely on tracking for booking in most cases.  Right now as shitty as Tomb Raider seems, it is tracking more than double what Love, Simon is tracking.  Same thing for Pacific Rim and when they are making decisions on which film to given an extra few runs to, it is going to 90% of the time go with tracking.  

 

It also doesn't help that Fox has another much larger picture they will want to hold onto screen space for releasing this weekend.  They aren't going to give up on Red Sparrow after 2 weeks to get a run of Love, Simon in theaters.  

 

This could always break out, but literally every single factor is going against it right now.  

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14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Also, theaters and studios rely on tracking for booking in most cases.  Right now as shitty as Tomb Raider seems, it is tracking more than double what Love, Simon is tracking.  Same thing for Pacific Rim and when they are making decisions on which film to given an extra few runs to, it is going to 90% of the time go with tracking.  

 

It also doesn't help that Fox has another much larger picture they will want to hold onto screen space for releasing this weekend.  They aren't going to give up on Red Sparrow after 2 weeks to get a run of Love, Simon in theaters.  

 

This could always break out, but literally every single factor is going against it right now.  

Red Sparrow will be pretty much dead by the time this comes out (it's not even gonna open to $20M this weekend and what will likely be lukewarm WOM will sink it fast) so there's not going to be much for Fox to "give up" on. This is gonna be more of a WOM movie anyway so it's not like it needs to post a blockbuster opening (which it won't). I'm gonna go with a $20-25M opening since there's still time - I'll put my faith in Fox over the next two weeks and hope they can turn this into a nice little hit.

Edited by filmlover
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I hope this does more than 50M but I agree with @The Shape of Pasta. Easy A numbers should be the target.

 

Good thing is, competition is low for March so this film should see solid legs.

 

I am thinking: $15.8M/56.3M with good reviews

 

Meh or negative reviews: $14.2M/42.7M

 

Edit:

 

My version of this breaking out: 22.6M/89.5M

Edited by Hiccup23
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