PASSENGERS | 203.1 M overseas ● 303.1 M worldwide

[amelin]

7 hours ago, JennaJ said:

So it really only has two weeks in China? That would seem like a really crappy release date if true. 

 

Yeah, it's incredibly frustrating that they couldn't find a better date in that case. I don't know, is it super crowded or something?

[trifle]

 

[Gavin Feng]

About $17.5m OW in China. $30m total should be easy.

[A District 3 Engineer]

Quote

 Passengers is expected to take its place as the Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt-starrer booked a $32.5M weekend overseas, including $17.5M in the Middle Kingdom where it is also No. 1. The international cume is now fast-approaching $150M

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$90,004,731	38.0%
+ Foreign:	$147,100,000	62.0%
= Worldwide:	$237,104,731

 

 

[Noiret Jak]

280/300M$ 'll be great !

[A District 3 Engineer]

12-15 more Million from China and DOM and 20-25M Overseas.

[A District 3 Engineer]

On 13/1/2017 at 0:59 PM, amelin said:

 

Yeah, it's incredibly frustrating that they couldn't find a better date in that case. I don't know, is it super crowded or something?

 

It's Chinese New Year and it's extremely crowded with LOCAL films.

[JennaJ]

43 minutes ago, A District 3 Engineer said:

 

It's Chinese New Year and it's extremely crowded with LOCAL films.

 

I wish it would have released earlier if that's the case. I mean no matter how crowded it would have been, surely it's better than cutting the release time down from a month to just two weeks?

I thought Sony had a deal with Wanda so I hoped that would help it get better timing/release strategy, but it is what it is I guess.

 

Anyway, all I've been hoping for is 100m domestic and 300m WW, and it looks like it's gonna get there.

[amelin]

4 hours ago, A District 3 Engineer said:

 

It's Chinese New Year and it's extremely crowded with LOCAL films.

 

Yeah, but that's what puzzles me. Why would they release it two weeks before Chinese New Year if the plethora of Chinese films on CNY will effectively kill the holdovers? I was thinking that maybe December/January was really crowded, but, like Jenna said, even a crowded release at an earlier time point must have been preferable to a two-week release in total.

Edited January 15, 2017 by amelin

[trifle]

13 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

 

I wish it would have released earlier if that's the case. I mean no matter how crowded it would have been, surely it's better than cutting the release time down from a month to just two weeks?

I thought Sony had a deal with Wanda so I hoped that would help it get better timing/release strategy, but it is what it is I guess.

 

Anyway, all I've been hoping for is 100m domestic and 300m WW, and it looks like it's gonna get there.

 

2 minutes ago, amelin said:

 

Yeah, but that's what puzzles me. Why would they release it two weeks before Chinese New Year if the plethora of Chinese films at CNY will effectively kill the holdovers? I was thinking that maybe December/January was really crowded, but, like Jenna said, even a crowded release at an earlier time point must have been preferable to a two-week release in total.

 

I may have this wrong, but as I understand it, even getting it into the Chinese market was up in the air until recently because it is so crowded.  When Pratt and Jen went to China for the promo tour a Chinese news site was saying all that effort would be wasted if it didn't get an opening date.  Its deal with Wanda may have been what got it in for what I know.

 

Another thing I wonder, but will never know the answer to, is if a better share of box office is derived given the Wanda deal, as people speculated happened with Warcraft.  On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Wanda defrayed costs to get a percentage so the whole idea of who risks what and gains what in that market is a bit mysterious.  So I'm just going with the rule of thumb for profitability.  I'd prefer $330M WW but I can live with $300M WW and I am rooting for it to get there.

[amelin]

1 minute ago, trifle said:

 

 

I may have this wrong, but as I understand it, even getting it into the Chinese market was up in the air until recently because it is so crowded.  When Pratt and Jen went to China for the promo tour a Chinese news site was saying all that effort would be wasted if it didn't get an opening date.  Its deal with Wanda may have been what got it in for what I know.

 

Another thing I wonder, but will never know the answer to, is if a better share of box office is derived given the Wanda deal, as people speculated happened with Warcraft.  On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Wanda defrayed costs to get a percentage so the whole idea of who risks what and gains what in that market is a bit mysterious.  So I'm just going with the rule of thumb for profitability.  I'd prefer $330M WW but I can live with $300M WW and I am rooting for it to get there.

 

Oh yeah, I forgot that the Chinese release date was confirmed really late in the game. Guess we should be grateful for what we can get, then.

 

I've also really been hoping for 3x the budget WW, but $300M is good enough, I guess.

[misafeco]

Opened in Hungary. 4-day weekend is about the same (66.3k admissions) as Interstellar and The Martian. Very good start.

[trifle]

 

That's going into the weekend, so I guess it is better than originally feared, but I do wish it had better scheduling.

Edited January 20, 2017 by trifle

[trifle]

LOL! Sorry, I meant to post in the BO Discussion thread!

Edited January 20, 2017 by trifle

[Arlborn]

2 minutes ago, trifle said:

Well, under the heading of 'every little bit hurts', I tried to see Passengers with a friend today in Burbank, and had to sit through all the trailers and commercials, then the film simply failed to come on.  The theater was half full on a rainy day with flooded street intersections, and I wasn't the only one who had had to come out of our usual area to see the movie since it wasn't in as many theaters.  This was the second time in a row another man there had had this happen, it happened to him yesterday, also with Passengers, also at an AMC - but a different one.  He said they had codes to type in to show it which were specific to the showing and the code simply didn't work.  Our screening, and that other guys' screening yesterday, were both cancelled.  Refunds were given, which won't help box office, of course.

 

Well, that's just horrible, how can AMC screw up like that 2x? Makes me wonder, if I were Sony I'd be pretty annoyed.

 

This movie needs 330m WW to not be considered a flop by the 3x its budget rule of thumb, does it have enough fuel OS to cross it you think?

[trifle]

8 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Well, that's just horrible, how can AMC screw up like that 2x? Makes me wonder, if I were Sony I'd be pretty annoyed.

 

This movie needs 330m WW to not be considered a flop by the 3x its budget rule of thumb, does it have enough fuel OS to cross it you think?

 

Unfortunately, at this point I'd be happy with $300M ww.  THAT it has a shot at, but it's not a sure thing.  The good news is that Sony did virtually no marketing domestically, the first trailer didn't even come out until September, we only got one poster, and ads didn't start until October, I'm pretty sure.  So it will be more than 2.5 times production budget, which I think is actually the rule, although I was thinking 3xs myself, for a buffer.   It will make money in aftermarket, but I want it to do better than break even in theaters, and it will be down to the wire on that.

Edited January 20, 2017 by trifle

[Barnack]

Quote

The good news is that Sony did virtually no marketing domestically, the first trailer didn't even come out until September, we only got one poster, and ads didn't start until October, I'm pretty sure

 

It did get around 30 million on it's marketing tv budget in the united states alone, it was an small for a wide release big budget studio movie, but still considerable.

 

 

Quote

which I think is actually the rule

 

There is no good rules of thumb to evaluate a movie break even point, because where the box office come from change it, the ratio production cost/total cost can change a lot, people can have first dollar gross type of contract, but the best I did come up with seem to be around for big movies is

(1.3 * domestic box office + foreign box office) >= 2 * (net production budget + participation bonus before hitting the mark)

 

smaller movie will need a much bigger ratio, because the production budget is much smaller relative to the releasing cost.

 

Quote

break even in theaters

 

Movies almost never do that, most movie have a theatrical release that cost more than the theatrical revenue, if you look at a studio annual report, they do 30-40% of their annual revenue from theatrical, most of the revenue come after. Think about a movie like Passenger, imagine a 400 million world box office, divided 70 million in china, 130 million in domestic, 200 million foreign.

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25 = 166.4 million, more than enough to pay the 100 million world release, but the 66 million you are left with do not pay the production budget and the overhead (and the participation bonus would have started to kick in too)

 

To not be a flop (i.e. not loose money) for a movie like Passenger the best reference is probably the movie Elyisum and looking at sony leaked document to see is break even point and expectation, it has a similar budget in a similar genre.

 

Elyisum with a 125.62 net production budget planned, with a world release P&A of about 100 million had

 

Break even point: 91.6 domestic / 128.3 international box office, 219.9 worldwide total

Targeted/budgeted to achieve (9.6% ROI): 125 dbo/175 ibo, 300 million worldwide

Wished Return break (15.5% ROI): 145 dbo / 203 ibo, 348 million worldwide

 

The movie ended up generating 297.93 million in total revenue, doing 20.453 million in profit for Sony, on a 93 million dbo / 193 million ibo 286 million worldwide box office performance. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2017 by Barnack

[trifle]

49 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It did get around 30 million on it's marketing tv budget in the united states alone, it was an small for a wide release big budget studio movie, but still considerable.

 

 

 

There is no good rules of thumb to evaluate a movie break even point, because where the box office come from change it, the ratio production cost/total cost can change a lot, people can have first dollar gross type of contract, but the best I did come up with seem to be around for big movies is

(1.3 * domestic box office + foreign box office) >= 2 * (net production budget + participation bonus before hitting the mark)

 

smaller movie will need a much bigger ratio, because the production budget is much smaller relative to the releasing cost.

 

 

Movies almost never do that, most movie have a theatrical release that cost more than the theatrical revenue, if you look at a studio annual report, they do 30-40% of their annual revenue from theatrical, most of the revenue come after. Think about a movie like Passenger, imagine a 400 million world box office, divided 70 million in china, 130 million in domestic, 200 million foreign.

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25 = 166.4 million, more than enough to pay the 100 million world release, but the 66 million you are left with do not pay the production budget and the overhead (and the participation bonus would have started to kick in too)

 

To not be a flop (i.e. not loose money) for a movie like Passenger the best reference is probably the movie Elyisum and looking at sony leaked document to see is break even point and expectation, it has a similar budget in a similar genre.

 

Elyisum with a 125.62 net production budget planned, with a world release P&A of about 100 million had

 

Break even point: 91.6 domestic / 128.3 international box office, 219.9 worldwide total

Targeted/budgeted to achieve (9.6% ROI): 125 dbo/175 ibo, 300 million worldwide

Wished Return break (15.5% ROI): 145 dbo / 203 ibo, 348 million worldwide

 

The movie ended up generating 297.93 million in total revenue, doing 20.453 million in profit for Sony, on a 93 million dbo / 193 million ibo 286 million worldwide box office performance. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for that information!

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

It did get around 30 million on it's marketing tv budget in the united states alone, it was an small for a wide release big budget studio movie, but still considerable.

 

 

 

There is no good rules of thumb to evaluate a movie break even point, because where the box office come from change it, the ratio production cost/total cost can change a lot, people can have first dollar gross type of contract, but the best I did come up with seem to be around for big movies is

(1.3 * domestic box office + foreign box office) >= 2 * (net production budget + participation bonus before hitting the mark)

 

smaller movie will need a much bigger ratio, because the production budget is much smaller relative to the releasing cost.

 

 

Movies almost never do that, most movie have a theatrical release that cost more than the theatrical revenue, if you look at a studio annual report, they do 30-40% of their annual revenue from theatrical, most of the revenue come after. Think about a movie like Passenger, imagine a 400 million world box office, divided 70 million in china, 130 million in domestic, 200 million foreign.

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25 = 166.4 million, more than enough to pay the 100 million world release, but the 66 million you are left with do not pay the production budget and the overhead (and the participation bonus would have started to kick in too)

 

To not be a flop (i.e. not loose money) for a movie like Passenger the best reference is probably the movie Elyisum and looking at sony leaked document to see is break even point and expectation, it has a similar budget in a similar genre.

 

Elyisum with a 125.62 net production budget planned, with a world release P&A of about 100 million had

 

Break even point: 91.6 domestic / 128.3 international box office, 219.9 worldwide total

Targeted/budgeted to achieve (9.6% ROI): 125 dbo/175 ibo, 300 million worldwide

Wished Return break (15.5% ROI): 145 dbo / 203 ibo, 348 million worldwide

 

The movie ended up generating 297.93 million in total revenue, doing 20.453 million in profit for Sony, on a 93 million dbo / 193 million ibo 286 million worldwide box office performance. 

 

 

 

 

 

That was an amazing first post, damn. Welcome to this forum, please stay.

 

[amelin]

3 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

That was an amazing first post, damn. Welcome to this forum, please stay.

 

 

My thoughts exactly! Thanks a lot for that, @Barnack.

Edited January 21, 2017 by amelin