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Happy Summer Movie Season. Play the summer game.

TalismanRing

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: GOTT: 24.66 | BOAN 7.1 | PERE 15 | DEEP 11.75 | MID SCHOOL 6.9

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The DC Comics caper, Suicide Squad, earned $1.11m (-42%) for a new $322.534m domestic and $742.1m worldwide cume. By the way, the film has now made more overseas ($419.6m) than Deadpool($419.5m), 3D and PG-13 rating notwithstanding.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/10/09/box-office-suicide-squad-tops-deadpool-overseas-as-finding-dory-crosses-1-billion-global/#1fe42ac257ad

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Thoughts:

 

As expected, The Girl on the Train is no Gone Girl, but this is still a slightly smaller opening than expected. Even though Gone Girl felt like a much bigger literary phenomenon, I thought this would still reach $30M. Oh well, at least it'll profitable.

 

Muted openings as expected for Birth of a Nation and Middle School, although the former has to be considered a win of sorts after the controversy surrounding Parker the past few months, even if it's not enough to revive its Oscar player chances.

 

Pretty good holds across the board despite Matthew taking out certain parts of the country. Miss Peregrine and Magnificent Seven might limp across $100M if they gets close enough, while Deepwater Horizon should cross $60M.

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With Hurricane Matthew affecting the southern states this weekend, The Girl On The Train took a lead on a quiet for the month of October. Overall the top 12 was at an estimated $96.4 million this weekend which was down 12% from last year.                                                        Thriller The Girl On The Train led the weekend with an estimated $24.6 million which is well below Gone Girl's debut 2 years ago but Gone Girl has  a bigger lead and a more known director. But Girl On The Train is actress  Emily Blunt's best debut in a lead role. Overall with mixed word of mouth, and a big October slate coming up Girl On The Train should hold up alright. Look for Girl On The Train to stop between $70-$80 million domestic.                                                             Tim Burton's Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children had a decent hold under 50% which was much better than Tim Burton/ Eva Green's last collaboration Dark Shadows which dropped close to 60% it's second weekend. Overall while there is a more crowded slate coming along Peregrine should still hold fine, but Fox needs to rely on the international markets which is doing quite solid thus far! Overall look for Peregrine to end its around $70-$75 million domestic.                         Big budget thriller Deepwater Horizon had a solid hold this weekend at around 42% this weekend, that hold is much better than The Finest Hours(53% earlier this year). Unfortunately, Deepwater Horizon is still a large financial failure with its $110 million budget($145-$155 million with P&A costs included) look for Deepwater to end its run above $60 million domestic.                                                                                        Magnificent Seven had a decent hold this weekend at 41% but it's still hard to tell if it will shoot up $100 million domestic.                                     Rounding out the top five, Storks had another solid hold under 40% and should make $65 million domestic.                                                    The Birth Of A Nation debuted with a not so great $7.1 million which is slightly less than the debut of Free State Of Jones($7.5 million). With decent word of mouth, Nation could hold up ok but with a competitive adult-oriented market coming up Nation should dissapear from theaters, and look for Nation to make $15-$20 million domestic.                   Lionsgate's Middle School:The Worst Years Of My Life had an ok start with an estimated $6.9 million which isn't bad for its $8.5 million budget, but is below other comparable titles such as the Diary Of A Wimpy Kid franchise, and Lionsgate's The Duff from last February just to name a few. Middle School should see some large drops to come and make around $15 million domestic.                                                            Sully had yet another solid hold under 40% and should make $130 million domestic. Last weekend's comedy Masterminds held up decent with 37% which isn't bad considering its lukewarm reception, Masterminds should make around $15 million. Queen Of Katwe had a decent drop but still isn't a profit for Disney the film will likely fall short of $10 million and should be a small flop for Disney. Don't Breathe and Suicide Squad still saw solid holds at 11 and 12 respectively. Both films should make over $90 million and near $330 million. 

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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

For all the pre hoopla about Girl On A Train it opened about the same as The Perfect Guy and No Good Deed

And it cost about 4x as much as those films too. Looks like Universal has to make most of their money overseas with it.

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20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Thoughts:

 

As expected, The Girl on the Train is no Gone Girl, but this is still a slightly smaller opening than expected. Even though Gone Girl felt like a much bigger literary phenomenon, I thought this would still reach $30M. Oh well, at least it'll profitable.

 

Muted openings as expected for Birth of a Nation and Middle School, although the former has to be considered a win of sorts after the controversy surrounding Parker the past few months, even if it's not enough to revive its Oscar player chances.

 

Pretty good holds across the board despite Matthew taking out certain parts of the country. Miss Peregrine and Magnificent Seven might limp across $100M if they gets close enough, while Deepwater Horizon should cross $60M.

100m are dead for Mag7 and Peregrine.

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6 minutes ago, babz06 said:

And it cost about 4x as much as those films too. Looks like Universal has to make most of their money overseas with it.

 

It's going to make a lot more overseas than the others which were barely released O/S.  No Good Deed made $1.8m.  GOTT just did $16.5m this w/e

 

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2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It's going to make a lot more overseas than the others which were barely released O/S.  No Good Deed made $1.8m.  GOTT just did $16.5m this w/e

 

I know. I guess these numbers seem to be the average range for sexy thrillers in this day and age. Gone Girl was an outlier. 

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Quite bad for the girl considering the expectations.

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2 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Quite bad for the girl considering the expectations.

 

It was only tracking in the 20's, not to mention once the negative reviews were released, people lowered their expectations.

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I'm guessing Warner Bros wants to reach 750 million total with Suicide Squad? Surprised they haven't announced a sequel.

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1 minute ago, Heat Vision said:

I'm guessing Warner Bros wants to reach 750 million total with Suicide Squad? Surprised they haven't announced a sequel.

They have, they announced a Harley Quinn movie didnt they?

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3 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

They have, they announced a Harley Quinn movie didnt they?

 

Hopefully they don't go through with that. I rather see another Suicide Squad.

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I think it's a given at this point we'll never see Leto's Joker again, at least after his comments.

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1 hour ago, babz06 said:

And it cost about 4x as much as those films too. Looks like Universal has to make most of their money overseas with it.

 

Universal are only distributing in the US and a handful of territories with the rest being covered by local distributors like eOne. For DreamWorks SKG, this is their first number one film in a while and for Amblin Partners, this is a good start for them

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1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

 

Universal are only distributing in the US and a handful of territories with the rest being covered by local distributors like eOne. For DreamWorks SKG, this is their first number one film in a while and for Amblin Partners, this is a good start for them

 

But they'll probably make less than the similarly budgeted Bridge of Spies even if it didn't hit number 1

 

 

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Gonna be a bleak month. Dr. Strange might breakout big just due to drought. 

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Who would have thought that Suicide Squad would only be less than 10 million than BVS domestic.

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5 hours ago, Heat Vision said:

 

Hopefully they don't go through with that. I rather see another Suicide Squad.

If it's a Harley Quinn movie where she's teaming up with Poison Ivy & Catwoman vs. the Birds of Prey, I could go for that, but if it's just a 'Harley Quinn' movie, I'd rather they just keep her involved in a sequel for Suicide Squad.

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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Gonna be a bleak month. Dr. Strange might breakout big just due to drought. 

That's what I'm thinking too. Inferno is probably gonna do solid enough business at the end of the month but even it too will skew older for the most part.

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If Dr Strange breaks out big and passes 250-300M, I'd lower my predict for Fantastic Beasts.

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