#UnpopularOpinions: Movies you think will overperform vs. movies you think will underperform given general expectations

[Arlborn]

29 minutes ago, kowhite said:

Valerian will overperform.

 

And, yet...I don't agree with myself.  But...I should be right.

It will do a bit better than Lucy numbers for a total of around 500m WW and it's going to be awesome. Believe.

 

Logan will do better than X-Men Apoc did, hence my club in the clubs section. I'm thinking 600m WW.

 

Fantastic Beasts is doing over 300m DOM without too much trouble.

 

That's all I have for now.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Arlborn

[kowhite]

26 minutes ago, Captain H said:

Overperform:

Valerian. I'm very convinced that this will be able to do better than Lucy and might even come close to the $200 million mark.

 

Can we be BFFs?  Seriously.  Only stopping point...kinda liking Arlborn right now.  

Edited October 11, 2016 by kowhite

[MovieMan89]

R1 and FB will definitely underperform general expectations around here. I expect the year of animation will continue this Holiday and Moana and Sing will be the big box office stories. 

 

 

[DAJK]

Only looking at the rest of 2016.

 

Overperform: Billy Lynn over 100M, Sing over 300 (but I'm not alone there), I agree hacksaw could be a sleeper, and I'll go ahead and say collateral beauty hits 100M.

 

Underperform: Assassin's Creed will do Warcraft numbers; Inferno I'm starting to think will go under 100M, and Moana right around 220-250

[kowhite]

54 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Only looking at the rest of 2016.

 

Overperform: Billy Lynn over 100M, Sing over 300 (but I'm not alone there), I agree hacksaw could be a sleeper, and I'll go ahead and say collateral beauty hits 100M.

 

Underperform: Assassin's Creed will do Warcraft numbers; Inferno I'm starting to think will go under 100M, and Moana right around 220-250

 

I could see AssCreed opening to Warcraft numbers but winter legs bringing it above.  But...what if it's awesome?  Could happen.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Here are my thoughts of overperformers, conservative performers & underperformers for summer 2017.

 

Overperformers: War for the Planet of the Apes & Spiderman: Homecoming. I think WFTPOTA is pretty underestimated by some people here, despite coming off two very well praised predecessors. I think quality will translate to an even higher WW-gross this time around...and for those American audience who don't want to see Transformers 5 (I'll get to that soon)....this is the good blockbuster to see. Spiderman: Homecoming seems to be a more fresher reboot of Spiderman, and it's now in the MCU-universe. It could potentially beat Sam Raimi's Spiderman 3 as the highest grossing SM-film WW, if China delivers strongly on this film.

 

Conservative performers: GOTG2, Despicable Me 3, POTC5, Dunkirk & Wonder-Woman. I think all the films would probably do their expected numbers, both DOM & WW-wise. Guardians 2 & Despicable Me 3 are the 2 safer $1B-grossers.

 

Underperformers: Transformers 5. I'll start with the positives. OS-wise, it could do huge again, especially in China. Since it is the franchise that appeals mostly for them. Around $750-850M, maybe. Now to the negatives. DOM-wise, though....I don't think people want to fall for Michael Bay's overformulatic tricks again. I could see Apes 3 winning over TF5 and that could get to over $200M. But this I don't see. It could get to $180-195M....but that's all. 

[That One Girl]

6 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

I think Arrival could do 150m

 

 

Lone Survivor and Saving Private Ryan were pretty fucking violent.  Black Hawk Down was really violent as well and that one adjusts to 160m, probably would've made more if it didn't come out right after 9/11.

 

I think Hacksaw Ridge is a potential sleeper hit.

 

The reason I'm doubtful of HR's success is the fact that if those films were hard watches, HR will be an even tougher watch, which could limit its appeal.

[WrathOfHan]

Overperform:

 

Arrival will do 150M

Fences will do 90M

Jackie will do 70M

 

Underperform:

 

Moana will do 240M

Passengers will barely cross 200M

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Passengers will barely cross 200M

That's an underperformance for Passengers? Lol.

 

$200m dom is good news for it, period.

[cannastop]

Lego Batman will flop with $250m dom.

[cookie]

Lego Batman and John Wick 2 will both outperform expectations and pull a Fifty Shades/Kingsman. Fifty Shades Darker will do less than half of the first film.

 

Moana pulls a semi-Frozen and Sing underperforms (i.e under $200m). Passengers goes under $150m.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by cookie

[MCKillswitch123]

35 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Lego Batman will flop with $250m dom.

 

Ehh, not only would 250M not even come close to flop, but I see no precedent as to why such would happen. But hey, this thread is for opinions like that, so sure. Though I would like to ask you to explain your opinion, if you don't mind.

Edited October 11, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[cannastop]

53 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Ehh, not only would 250M not even come close to flop, but I see no precedent as to why such would happen. But hey, this thread is for opinions like that, so sure. Though I would like to ask you to explain your opinion, if you don't mind.

It's sarcastic. There are so many predictions over $300m that people would have fits if it only did $250m dom.

[MCKillswitch123]

54 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's sarcastic. There are so many predictions over $300m that people would have fits if it only did $250m dom.

 

Ah, okay. Yeah, that would in fact be very frustrating - I kinda am stanning for 300M+ too

[filmlover]

Also another possibility: Why Him? over $100M. Being the only comedy around the holidays will help it stand out.

Edited October 11, 2016 by filmlover

[MattW]

Moans is gonna underperform compared to what I see here on BOT, so many 300+ predictions here that I don't think are anywhere close to the mark. In fact I think under 200 is more likely than over 300, but my prediction is in the 220-250 range.

[Daxtreme]

I think Wonder Woman next summer will outgross both Suicide Squad and Batman v Superman to become the DCEU's #1 movie DOM and best-reviewed title as well with 60+ on RT.

 

Reasons why I think it's gonna have positive reviews: First female led superhero movie, WW1 period piece, Wonder Woman was BvS' best character, underdog narrative/start of the DCEU's redemption story

[junkshop36]

I think Moana will out gross Fantastic Beasts DOM. Not sure if that's an unpopular opinion though. 

[cannastop]

Just now, junkshop36 said:

I think Moana will out gross Fantastic Beasts DOM. Not sure if that's an unpopular opinion though. 

That's downright popular, I'd say.

[Fran2]

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

That's downright popular, I'd say.

Nah, that sounds astronomically implausible