#UnpopularOpinions: Movies you think will overperform vs. movies you think will underperform given general expectations

[Plain Old Tele]

Moderation:

 

ENOUGH WITH THE JAMES CAMERON AND AVATAR SHIT

He's arguably my favorite director, but goddammit, this nonsense is infecting every single goddamn thread here.

[IronJimbo]

[cannastop]

The Lego Batman movie will only make $350 dom, and it will do the same overseas for a total of $700m.

[vc2002]

3 hours ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

Moderation:

 

ENOUGH WITH THE JAMES CAMERON AND AVATAR SHIT

He's arguably my favorite director, but goddammit, this nonsense is infecting every single goddamn thread here.

 

[Talkie]

I think that Dunkirk will underperform given its release date and competition. The audience may be too busy watching apes go to war to give a human war much thought.

 

The other DC movies have shown that there is a built-in audience for that universe. But Wonder Woman is likely to earn less than her peers due to competition. 

 

King Arthur will crash and burn. That's not an unpopular opinion, though. 

 

John Wick 2 looks set to over-perform. The original has gained fans since release and the trailer is awesome. Good marketing can launch it to breakout status.

[YM!]

Time to revive this

 

Overperform:

Justice League: Most here are thinking around $280M-$325M for this one, however think there is a good chance for $400M, especially if Wonder Woman is good.

 

Captain Underpants: With the slew of DWA movies we tend to underpredict. Thinking it could perform similar to Trolls.

 

Kingsman 2: This reminds of 22 Jump Street all over again, this could do over $150M+, even with Ninjago.

 

Ninjago: If Cars 3, DM3, and Emoji do average business like I expect, I could see this surprise us.

 

Animated Spider-Man: Although Lego Batman is finishing with $175M, normally I'd expect the same for this, especially with the previous Spider-Man cartoons, however Spider-Man has two things going for it. 1.) Miles Morales, an African American/Hispanic character is this movies Spider-Man and will draw people in. 2.) Christmas legs

 

GOTGV2: Although the hype isn't the highest on social media, this may connect with the GA more. GOTGV2 will do around CW numbers ($179M/$408M) with a smaller OW like around $150M-$165M.

 

Emoji Movie: It should do Turbo numbers at absolute worst, otherwise this may reach $150M

 

Dark Tower: Over $150M for sure.

 

Underperform:

Coco: Although it's Pixar, Moana had less competition and more hype and did barely $250M.

 

Deadpool 2: This will do over $300M, but not much more due to the huge competition it deals with.

 

Han Solo: Although it's Star Wars, given the competition and perhaps lack of necessary, I could see $400M as the maximum even in the summer.

 

Alien: People really didn't love Prometheus and barely did $130M, I can see this barely doing $100M regardless of Internet hype.

 

Blade Runner: 2049: Expect Fury Road numbers at best. 

Edited April 23, 2017 by YourMother

[Eevin]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Time to revive this

Overperform:

Justice League: Most here are thinking around $280M-$325M for this one, however think there is a good chance for $400M, especially if Wonder Woman is good.

 

Captain Underpants: With the slew of DWA movies we tend to underpredict. Thinking it could perform similar to Trolls.

 

Kingsman 2: This reminds of 22 Jump Street all over again, this could do over $150M+, even with Ninjago.

 

Ninjago: If Cars 3, DM3, and Emoji do average business like I expect, I could see this surprise us.

 

Animated Spider-Man: Although Lego Batman is finishing with $175M, normally I'd expect the same for this, especially with the previous Spider-Man cartoons, however Spider-Man has two things going for it. 1.) Miles Morales, an African American/Hispanic character is this movies Spider-Man and will draw people in. 2.) Christmas legs

 

Underperform:

Coco: Although it's Pixar, Moana had less competition and more hype and did barely $250M.

 

Deadpool 2: This will do over $300M, but not much more due to the huge competition it deals with.

 

Han Solo: Although it's Star Wars, given the competition and perhaps lack of necessary, I could see $400M as the maximum even in the summer.

Is that Ninjago prediction your expectation or your wish? 

[Jake Gittes]

Putting together my summer game right now I think Baywatch might pull a 21 Jump Street or Neighbors, while Alien Covenant could struggle to reach 100.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Eevin said:

Is that Ninjago prediction your expectation or your wish? 

Wish. 

[That One Girl]

Baywatch will have a San Andreas-type run and hit 150M. 

 

[YM!]

Just now, That One Guy said:

Baywatch will have a San Andreas-type run and hit 150M. 

 

 

[Eevin]

Overperform:

IT will do $200m+ domestic.

Detroit will do $100m+ and be the highest-grossing film of August. 

Wonder Woman will do BvS numbers or slightly higher.

Blade Runner 2049 > Thor: Ragnarok DOM.

 

Underperform:

Spider-Man: Homecoming will do TASM adjusted numbers (~$275m).

The Dark Tower will do less than $100m.

Transformers 5 will do half of Transformers 4.

 

I can't really tell:

Avatar 2 will do $600m/$2b worldwide. I'm bound to have people telling me I'm wrong either way, though.

 

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Overperform:

IT will do $200m+ domestic.

Detroit will do $100m+ and be the highest-grossing film of August. 

Wonder Woman will do BvS numbers or slightly higher.

Blade Runner 2049 > Thor: Ragnarok DOM.

 

Underperform:

Spider-Man: Homecoming will do TASM adjusted numbers (~$275m).

The Dark Tower will do less than $100m.

Transformers 5 will do half of Transformers 4.

 

I can't really tell:

Avatar 2 will do $600m/$2b worldwide. I'm bound to have people telling me I'm wrong either way, though.

 

 

What numbers are you predicting for BR2, reminds me so much of Resurgence?

[WrathOfHan]

Alien Covenant will do 60/160. Regardless of how you think it looks, marketing has been prominent and effective. Buzz feels much higher than Kong had at any point in time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[That One Girl]

Oh yeah I think BR2 has a genuine shot at 250M.  The original's a classic, and this one is bringing on one of the most talented directors working and Gosling straight off of La La Land, along with Ford returning.  It's gonna hit hard.  Teaser was very well received too.

[YM!]

Alien Convenant and BR2 will both do barely over $100M.

[Eevin]

12 minutes ago, YourMother said:

What numbers are you predicting for BR2, reminds me so much of Resurgence?

This is basically hinging on the fact that I expect BR2 to be a terrific film, if not the best film of the year. I see $110m/$250m for Thor and $75m/$275m for Blade Runner. 

Edited April 22, 2017 by Eevin

[YM!]

Emoji Movie over HT1 ($142M).

[robertman2]

Alien and Dunkirk are gonna struggle hard to hit to 100m

 

IT will hit 200m

[WrathOfHan]

I'm not as high on Blade Runner as some of you. The original doesn't adjust to much and is still somewhat of a cult classic. Best case scenario is Fury Road numbers.