Jump to content

cannastop

The Year 2021 Problem.

Recommended Posts

Take a look at the movies announced beyond 2018:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=theatrical&yr=2018&p=.htm

 

As you can see, the only thing scheduled for 2021 is Fast & Furious 10, and who knows if people are even going to watch that.

 

In fact, it seems that no studios has long term plans beyond 2020. WB mostly has vague "Event Films" scheduled then. Somehow I doubt that the Fantastic Beasts series is going to last for more than 3 entries. Their DCEU movies will hinge on the success of Justice League in 2017, so they better hope that Zack Synder doesn't alienate the audience again. Maybe Battfleck can be interesting, though.

 

King Disney might have some issues as well. Their new Star Wars trilogy will end in 2019, leaving them with spinoffs for a few more years. Would they be so bold as to announce Star Wars X, XI and XII? Also, the current crop of Avengers will end their Infinity War in 2019 in some untitled sequel. What will they do after that? Will recasting be in order?

 

I predict that 2020 will see a sharp revenue drop from 2019, and 2021 will drop from 2020. Who knows what comes after that. I think right now is the golden age of blockbusters.

 

Then again, maybe James Cameron's 4 Avatar movies will swoop in and save the day. You never know.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



I don't think you can make any such broad predictions five years out.

 

Consider what we knew about movies coming out right now back in 2011. That was before the Lucasfilm deal, so any Star Wars movies were only in the vaguest sense. The Clone Wars was midway through its run, but that was basically it in terms of additional media. Also, the MCU was in a good setup phase, but it was hardly the dominant franchise that it would become. Neither Thor or CA1 crested 200m, after all.

 

Man of Steel was in production, but there wasn't anything about how the DCEU would develop from it. (WB'd made noise for years about a desire to do Justice League and all, but it stood then that the initial film would have to succeed for it to continue.) Harry Potter had just finished, and even if the popularity was strong, nobody had a clue about any future films in the series.

 

Could anyone have predicted animation to turn into the genre juggernaut it's become? Pixar had just released its worst received film by far. WDAS had a bright spot the previous year in Tangled, but that was a modest success all things considered. Nobody had a clue about what Frozen, much less Zootopia, would do, either commercially or critically. And while Despicable Me was a great success, Illumination had yet to prove it could follow it up with an equally big success. 

 

We didn't know that the F&F franchise would become one of the biggest on the planet. Fast 5 was a stunning success, yes, but for the next two films to grow on it and capture and amazing international audience? Not something that anyone predicted.

 

Disney had only done one of the fairy tale updates, and while Alice had done very well, I believe even in 2011 people realized that the 3D aspect was a big reason it did, and there wasn't a lot of indication that the success could be matched. Plus, Jon Favreau's first post-Iron Man gig (after he'd lost out on the Avengers director's chair) was the less than well received, critically and commercially. Would anyone have pegged The Jungle Book to be one of the year's biggest films after seeing what his efforts were like outside of the Marvel banner. "From the director of Cowboys and Aliens" doesn't really inspire confidence.

 

The thing is, while the industry is focused on franchises, possibly to the detriment of many things, franchises do shift around. It takes about, what, three years or so for a film to come together from rough concept to release, so the 2021 films are probably only going to start becoming a reality in the next couple of years. It's too early right now to say.

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Do studios usually announce their films more than a few years in advance? I don't think we had release dates for many of the movies we've had this year back in 2011 and 2012. My guess would be that there will be plenty of good movies in 2020 and beyond, and it's just too early to announce them yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Only quoting a few parts.

9 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Could anyone have predicted animation to turn into the genre juggernaut it's become? Pixar had just released its worst received film by far. WDAS had a bright spot the previous year in Tangled, but that was a modest success all things considered. Nobody had a clue about what Frozen, much less Zootopia, would do, either commercially or critically. And while Despicable Me was a great success, Illumination had yet to prove it could follow it up with an equally big success. 

Everyone knew animated features were big. Just look back on Dreamwork's successes back then. In fact, 2010 was huge for animation from multiple studios.

 

11 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

The thing is, while the industry is focused on franchises, possibly to the detriment of many things, franchises do shift around. It takes about, what, three years or so for a film to come together from rough concept to release, so the 2021 films are probably only going to start becoming a reality in the next couple of years. It's too early right now to say.

The problem is that franchises are decades in the making. Marvel, DC and Lucasfilm are productive wells now, but they can run dry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2021 is five years from now! it wasn't until recently that people (the AG anyways) had any idea of films releasing that far out, with the extent of one or two tentative titles maybe.

 

I do feel like we are in a franchise oversaturation right now and by 2020, a shift in how many of those kinds of movies we make could take place and give way for more mid-budget films and original content to be released. that is my hope anyway. and Yeah after Avengers 4, the MCU will probably be past its golden age, but they could still be very successful with whatever they do, hell maybe WB will have finally figured out how to make good DC films by then, and be the leading force in Superhero films. and as far as Star Wars goes I'm almost positive either an Ep X-XII will be released sometime in the 2020s or some other trilogy, KOTOR maybe. Anyways who knows, it may shift maybe film revenue will decrease, maybe it won't. it's all mostly speculation at this point. 

Edited by Kalo
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





22 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

2 years later, and actually it did score a well reviewd film with Wonder woman

 

And Aquaman. it's should be even higher though... I think DC will finally start getting a good rep in the 2020s and maybe even over take Marvel in popularity. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites





Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.